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Gamblers- Week 1 and Futures

Captain Uberpants said:
Let’s all try and make some money together.

Who are you putting some $$ on for future bets and week 1. So far I like (I use SBG Global):

Miami over 9.5 wins
Florida under 8 wins
Miami -3 vs LSU (most sites are -3.5 by now)
Auburn -2.5 vs Washington (game in Atlanta)
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Never bet against coach Pete week one
 
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I want to talk about our game even though it's very far out in advance. Typically you'll see some real movement on CFB games Friday before the game, but since our game is on a Sunday I'm expecting some movement on Saturday. Anything on gameday is something to seriously watch out for since we are the only game on, so the sharps will be devoting all of their attention to this game. If any of you are interested in some great gambling literature, check out "Gaming the Game". In that book, they talk about how some of the sharps were absolutely lethal when it came to betting MNF games for the NFL. Why? Because they were able to devote all of their time to dissecting that one game, rather than breaking down 14 or so games on Sunday. So you'll notice on the below chart that our O/U has actually risen from 45.5 to 48.5 (you only see 46 to 48.5 because the screen only shows so much at once).

Most of the posters on this site in the prediction thread do not expect this game to sniff 48.5 points. Notice the juice on the Under now at -115 at Pinnacle after previously having even juice on both sides. Bookmaker has our O/U at 47.5 right now and I'm seeing mainly 47.5 or 48 on the screen. I fully expect the O/U to be 48 or less come gameday. Why did it rise? My guess is it was a nice setup by the originator to snag the Under at a better price. Think pump and dump stock situations. The same logic applies; the same technical analysis applies. 48 is a key number because it could easily be a 28-20 or 27-21 type of game. If you like the Under, I'd get it now at 48. I really don't see this one moving to 49 again. It did at some spots (Heritage) and then summarily dropped down to 48.5 and now to 48.

miami o-u.png
 
SWFLSWAGG17 said:
Week 1 is always the best time to make money. My buddy in Vegas does nothing but bet sports books and he picks about 10 mid majors and smaller, follows them and does more research than anyone setting a line. This knowledge gives him his edge until the handicappers get to see film of the smaller teams.
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Yup he's right and you rarely bet the team you love. Even when the handicappers get to see film they don't spend as much time on small teams because there is much less money bet on them. I use to put most of my money on the small games, so much easier to see a bad line. I live right next to Vegas, gotta get back into betting this year.
 
Props:
FAU O 8.5
UM O 9.5
Browns O 5.5
Fins O 6.5
-The legendary Delusional UF fan U 9 wins

Straight
Miami V. LSU -2.5 -120

Parley/Teasers
{VANDERBILT -4½-110
AUBURN (N) -3-110
MICHIGAN -2½-115
MIAMI FLORIDA -2½-120}
25 to win 250

Moneyline
{FSU
Arizona
Indiana
California}
 
Poptimus said:
Got it. Momentum is a powerful thing with pointspreads, much like with stocks. If the market disagrees with me and the line is dropping when I'm expecting it to climb, I'd wait it out for some higher juice on Miami, if not a bounce back of 1/2 a point or so before even considering going against the steam. But yeah...in a vacuum, I agree you'd want the line lower. On another note, I wouldn't bet a game this far out in advance. I'm waiting right up until gameday before pulling the trigger.
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Alright pop, you’re the vet and I trust your opinion. What’s your thoughts on this game?

I normally stay away from UM games because of the emotions involved. But I feel really good about this , I’ll take UM as long as it stays under 4. Gets any lower I’ll just take Miami in the ML.

I’m thinking of dropping a grand on this , which is crazy for a um game , but like I said “ I feel really good about this”.

Thoughts sir?
 
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Cribby said:
Alright pop, you’re the vet and I trust your opinion. What’s your thoughts on this game?

I normally stay away from UM games because of the emotions involved. But I feel really good about this , I’ll take UM as long as it stays under 4. Gets any lower I’ll just take Miami in the ML.

I’m thinking of dropping a grand on this , which is crazy for a um game , but like I said “ I feel really good about this”.

Thoughts sir?
Click to expand...
I think if you're not used to betting a grand a game you may want to scale down. The ML price at Pinnacle has yet to budge. It opened as Miami -148, LSU +131 and that's where it is now. The spread has gone up linearly from -2.5 to -3, but I'd be quite surprised if this climbs to -4, so I think you should wait for some confirmation. You'll have plenty of opportunity to lay -3.

There's even juice on both sides of the 3 right now and it takes a lot to move a game on or off the 3. We'll start to see some serious juice movement before we see it go to -3.5 (or God forbid a reversal to -2.5). I'm monitoring it throughout the week and if I see something I'll post it here. I don't think we see a half point move until Saturday. I just went and checked 2017 when Tennessee played Georgia Tech as the only game on Monday during Week 1. The line there was -3, too, and it didn't move half a point until the day before the game.
 
Poptimus said:
I think if you're not used to betting a grand a game you may want to scale down. The ML price at Pinnacle has yet to budge. It opened as Miami -148, LSU +131 and that's where it is now. The spread has gone up linearly from -2.5 to -3, but I'd be quite surprised if this climbs to -4, so I think you should wait for some confirmation. You'll have plenty of opportunity to lay -3.

There's even juice on both sides of the 3 right now and it takes a lot to move a game on or off the 3. We'll start to see some serious juice movement before we see it go to -3.5 (or God forbid a reversal to -2.5). I'm monitoring it throughout the week and if I see something I'll post it here. I don't think we see a half point move until Saturday. I just went and checked 2017 when Tennessee played Georgia Tech as the only game on Monday during Week 1. The line there was -3, too, and it didn't move half a point until the day before the game.
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Thanks.

I’ve went awol from betting the last few years but im making a comeback. I just feel really good about this game. Maybe I’ll scale the amount back , but I’m definitely waiting until Saturday or Sunday to bet.
 
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BeastMode said:
Good call. I made some money back on this one after CSU got blown up by Hawaii.
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And that CSU game is the type of game that sets back anyone doing the bonus hustle. Line rose linearly from -14.5 to -17, ML went from -500 to over -800 and they outright lose. A lot of sites won't even let you bet the ML on a spread that high. Perfect example of how the bonus game isn't free money.
 
Poptimus said:
I want to talk about our game even though it's very far out in advance. Typically you'll see some real movement on CFB games Friday before the game, but since our game is on a Sunday I'm expecting some movement on Saturday. Anything on gameday is something to seriously watch out for since we are the only game on, so the sharps will be devoting all of their attention to this game. If any of you are interested in some great gambling literature, check out "Gaming the Game". In that book, they talk about how some of the sharps were absolutely lethal when it came to betting MNF games for the NFL. Why? Because they were able to devote all of their time to dissecting that one game, rather than breaking down 14 or so games on Sunday. So you'll notice on the below chart that our O/U has actually risen from 45.5 to 48.5 (you only see 46 to 48.5 because the screen only shows so much at once).

Most of the posters on this site in the prediction thread do not expect this game to sniff 48.5 points. Notice the juice on the Under now at -115 at Pinnacle after previously having even juice on both sides. Bookmaker has our O/U at 47.5 right now and I'm seeing mainly 47.5 or 48 on the screen. I fully expect the O/U to be 48 or less come gameday. Why did it rise? My guess is it was a nice setup by the originator to snag the Under at a better price. Think pump and dump stock situations. The same logic applies; the same technical analysis applies. 48 is a key number because it could easily be a 28-20 or 27-21 type of game. If you like the Under, I'd get it now at 48. I really don't see this one moving to 49 again. It did at some spots (Heritage) and then summarily dropped down to 48.5 and now to 48.

View attachment 63002
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What other books you suggest to read on gambling I'm about to order on Amazon now
 
D.L.I.N.K.D.A.GR8 said:
What other books you suggest to read on gambling I'm about to order on Amazon now
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Just that book. "National Football Lottery" is good, but it's dated. Most of the stuff is available for free online. Check out the 60 Minutes video on youtube about Billy Walters. Learn to read the screen, there's a free one at sportsbookreview.com and vegasinsider.com that shows you how the lines moved. Learn how much each half point is worth, it's different based on the spread, O/U, and obviously the sport. But anyone can see when the line moved. The name of the game is figuring out why. I couldn't care less if it's an adjustment for an injury. I try to figure out when serious $ moved it.
 
Poptimus said:
Just that book. "National Football Lottery" is good, but it's dated. Most of the stuff is available for free online. Check out the 60 Minutes video on youtube about Billy Walters. Learn to read the screen, there's a free one at sportsbookreview.com and vegasinsider.com that shows you how the lines moved. Learn how much each half point is worth, it's different based on the spread, O/U, and obviously the sport. But anyone can see when the line moved. The name of the game is figuring out why. I couldn't care less if it's an adjustment for an injury. I try to figure out when serious $ moved it.
Click to expand...

Gotcha, thanks for the insight pop!
 
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@Cribby OK, so just as I say the line should marinate at -3 for a while, it moves. But it moved in our favor and is now -3.5 at most outs so I'm happy. That's usually a great sign, but from a pure gambling perspective the move coincided with the official announcement that Burrow is starting at QB for LSU. Perhaps the sharps were hoping it'd be Brennan. So this 1/2 point move may be an informational adjustment by the lines makers, not sharp $ on the Canes. We did see a drop on the O/U from 48.5 to 48 which I expected. What is very interesting is that the spread rose, but the money line dropped a bit and usually those are correlated. Look at how there was a 10 cent drop on the ML while just a 4 cent drop on the spread, right off a major move off the 3. What does it mean? I think it's a good sign it moved to -3.5, but the fact the timing coincided with the announcement Burrow is starting could be an adjustment much like if there was a key injury, not sharp $ moving the number.

miami move.png
 
Novacane32000 said:
Florida under 8 wins is too risky.

They return 112 OL starts-most in SEC, 10 O Starters again most in SEC and 9 D Starters most in SEC. My experience is, that teams returning that many starters, do very well the first 2-3 games of the season and can then carry that momentum. I see 5 easy wins on their schedule and 2 other games where they should be a decent fav. Only see one real tough game--Georgia and maybe Miss St.
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I wouldn't bet that under with a free roll.

If they get the QB situation figured out, they are going to have a decent season. They are going to be 4-0 going into StarkVegas and if things go right, 7-0 before the ****tail Party.
 
Searched my database for fewest returning offensive starters and no returning QB.
I have found the O takes a while to click at the beginning of the season when breaking in fresh faces.

Taking Neb -24.5 vs Akron who returns only 5 Off. starters/new QB and only 55 OLine starts.

Also like Kentucky -17 vs Central Mich ----4 Off.starters return/new QB/36 Oline starts. Only 6 D starters return for CMU.

Miami -3.5 vs LSU which has 5 Off. starters return/new QB/ only 35 Oline starts return. Got like this one. Big Advantage Miami D vs LSU O.

On the flip side--Wyoming had 9 Off starters returning-made a few bucks there.

Mich St/UF/Cal/BC all return 10 starters and the QB on Offence.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
Searched my database for fewest returning offensive starters and no returning QB.
I have found the O takes a while to click at the beginning of the season when breaking in fresh faces.

Taking Neb -24.5 vs Akron who returns only 5 Off. starters/new QB and only 55 OLine starts.

Also like Kentucky -17 vs Central Mich ----4 Off.starters return/new QB/36 Oline starts. Only 6 D starters return for CMU.

Miami -3.5 vs LSU which has 5 Off. starters return/new QB/ only 35 Oline starts return. Got like this one. Big Advantage Miami D vs LSU O.

On the flip side--Wyoming had 9 Off starters returning-made a few bucks there.

Mich St/UF/Cal/BC all return 10 starters and the QB on Offence.
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Looks like you pick mostly favorites. They lose about 53% of the time. Just saying look for some dogs too.
 
CaneOil said:
Looks like you pick mostly favorites. They lose about 53% of the time. Just saying look for some dogs too.
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I have a few dogs-just didnt mention them


Kent St +16 vs Ill (Kent st brings back 87% of the O production from last year)
Rice +24 Houston (Houston returns only 5 on O)
Utah st +25 vs Mich St (Utah St returns 18 starters-they will cover )
TX St +16.5 vs Rutgers (both teams bring back about the same # of starters-may need to hedge this one)
 
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