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Four-star safety Cortez Redding commits to Miami

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Memnon said:
Isaiah Thomas transferred to Kennesaw ST.

Ryan Mack & Dylan Day are Special Teamers.
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Mack was injured last year and Day was one of our best Special Teamers. I expect Day, at least, to take the next step and contribute this year. We just can't count on him being a starter just yet. With Mack, we'll have to see how he has recovered. But the kid was a talent in youth and HS football, and virtually everyone on here (including myself) wanted him more than his teammate at STA, OJ. So I wouldn't discount him. ... And he may end up at Nickle in the end.
 
grover said:
Mack was injured last year and Day was one of our best Special Teamers. I expect Day, at least, to take the next step and contribute this year. We just can't count on him being a starter just yet. With Mack, we'll have to see how he has recovered. But the kid was a talent in youth and HS football, and virtually everyone on here (including myself) wanted him more than his teammate at STA, OJ. So I wouldn't discount him. ... And he may end up at Nickle in the end.
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Neither one of them will be starters be at Miami.

They're backup quality players.
 
Memnon said:
Neither one of them will be starters be at Miami.

They're backup quality players.
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I cannot argue against your knowledge of DBs. But I'm hoping you're wrong. Day had some airtime in that first hype video released by the school last night. So coaches clearly like what he brings.

I don't see any one of our Safeties as having locked down a position, even Poyser and Scott. I expect a lot of movement back there throughout camp and over the course of the season.
 
kccanefan said:
I’m not really concerned with rankings, but can someone explain the math to me with 247’s rankings?

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We have more players committed and higher average. Makes no sense why they would be ranked higher than us.
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Haven't gone through all of the pages yet, so someone else may have already posted this but, according to Google AI it is b/c 247 uses "the Gaussian distribution (bell curve) weighting and the value placed on elite talent at the very top of a recruiting class."

The short explanation from Gemini:

Here's the likely explanation:​
  • Michigan's Top-End Talent is More Highly Rated: Despite a slightly lower average score, Michigan likely has a few recruits with significantly higher individual Composite ratings that are contributing a much larger share to their overall team score.

    • For example, Michigan might have one or two very high 4-stars, or even a 5-star, whose individual Composite ratings are at the very top of the scale (e.g., 0.9850, 0.9780). Because these players are at the very top of their class, their points are weighted almost at 100% of their value.
    • Miami, with 22 commits and a slightly higher average score, might have a class where the talent is more evenly distributed, with many high 3-stars or solid 4-stars. This pulls up their average.
    • However, if their absolute highest-rated recruits are slightly lower than Michigan's top few, or if their top talent is not as concentrated, the impact on the overall score is diminished because of how the bell curve weights contributions. The "additional" recruit Miami has (22 vs. 21) would also be contributing at a very reduced rate, given it's the last commit in the weighted sum.
To visualize:​
​
Imagine the bell curve. Michigan's points might be clustered higher up on the left side of the curve (representing their top few recruits), even if their overall "spread" of talent isn't as high on average as Miami's. Miami's points might be more clustered in the middle of the curve, leading to a higher average but a lower total score because those middle-of-the-class recruits don't contribute as heavily as the very top ones.​
​
In short, Michigan's slightly higher overall score and ranking, despite fewer commits and a lower average, indicates that they've secured a few recruits who are individually rated significantly higher than Miami's top-rated recruits, and these top players are what heavily drive the composite team score due to the weighted formula.​

More detailed reasoning for how the rankings work:

247Sports Composite team rankings are designed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased assessment of a school's recruiting class. Here's a breakdown of how they work:​
​
1. The 247Sports Composite Player Rating:​
  • Aggregated Ratings: The foundation of the team rankings is the 247Sports Composite player rating. This is a proprietary algorithm that compiles prospect rankings and ratings from multiple major recruiting services (currently 247Sports, ESPN, and On3, each contributing one-third to the formula). This approach helps to reduce bias and provide a more balanced view of a prospect's standing.
  • Numerical Rating: Each recruit is assigned a numerical rating, capped at 1.0000 for a consensus No. 1 prospect.
  • Star Ranking: Based on their Composite numerical rating, recruits are given a star ranking (2-star, 3-star, 4-star, 5-star). For instance, a rating of 0.9834 or higher typically designates a five-star prospect in the Composite system.
2. The Team Ranking Formula:​
  • Gaussian Distribution (Bell Curve): The team ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating of a team's commits. The key to the formula is a Gaussian distribution, or bell curve, where a team's best recruit is worth the most points, and the value gradually decreases for subsequent recruits.
  • Weighted Value: This means a team's top-rated commit contributes 100% of their rating value to the team's score. The second-best commit contributes nearly 100%, and so on, down to the last recruit who contributes a small fraction of their value.
  • Mitigating Large Classes: This weighting system is crucial because it ensures that all commits contribute some value, but it prevents teams with a much larger number of lower-rated commits from heavily outscoring teams with fewer but higher-rated players.
  • Varying Standard Deviation (σ): The Gaussian distribution used has a varying standard deviation (σ) based on the average number of commits across schools for a given sport. This makes the bell curve's inflection point closer to the typical class size, influencing how much each recruit contributes based on their rank within the class.
  • Formula (Simplified): While the exact mathematical formula is complex, you can think of a team's total score as the sum of its commits' ratings, with each rating weighted according to its position in the class (highest-rated getting the most weight, decreasing for lower-rated commits).
Key Takeaways:​
  • Composite is Key: The team rankings are built directly from the 247Sports Composite player ratings, which average evaluations from multiple sources.
  • Quality over Quantity (mostly): While having more commits helps, the weighting system heavily prioritizes the quality of a team's top recruits. A few five-star and high four-star prospects will significantly boost a team's score.
  • Real-time Updates: The rankings are updated in real-time as commitments occur.
  • Industry Standard: The 247Sports Composite is widely regarded as the most comprehensive and unbiased team recruiting ranking in the industry.
Essentially, it's about building a class with a strong foundation of highly-rated players, and while depth adds to the score, elite talent at the top of the class makes the biggest impact.​
 
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Rellyrell said:
The Avg recruit ranking are:
1. UO (93.82)
2. LSU (93.66)
3. Bama (92.89)
4. ND (92.35)
T-5: UGA (92.26)
T-5: O$U (92.26)
7. USC (92.23)
8. TAMU (92.07)
9. UT (91.74)
10. UF (91.54)
11. USCe (91.22)
12. Miami (91.15)
13. UofM (91.04)
14. Clemson (90.71)
15. UTenn (90.33)
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91.15 to 91.74.......I would say that is right behind.
 
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Rellyrell said:
The Avg recruit ranking are:
1. UO (93.82)
2. LSU (93.66)
3. Bama (92.89)
4. ND (92.35)
T-5: UGA (92.26)
T-5: O$U (92.26)
7. USC (92.23)
8. TAMU (92.07)
9. UT (91.74)
10. UF (91.54)
11. USCe (91.22)
12. Miami (91.15)
13. UofM (91.04)
14. Clemson (90.71)
15. UTenn (90.33)
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Higher than our TOP 5 class in 2024

Amber Riley Tea GIF
 
P-Tizzle said:
91.15 to 91.74.......I would say that is right behind.
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No, it’s really not if u understood recruit rankings & simple mathematics.

Zion Elee is the #1 overall recruit with the highest composite score of .9994. We could flip him today & we would still be behind UT in our per. In fact, we would need to flip him & get Davon Benjamin to commit just to past them. So to ur eyes “we’re right behind them,” but in reality they have a two 5* lead in recruiting.
 
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Rellyrell said:
No, it’s really not if u understood recruit rankings & simple mathematics.

Zion Elee is the #1 overall recruit with the highest composite score of .9994. We could flip him today & we would still be behind UT in our per. In fact, we would need to flip him & get Davon Benjamin to commit just to past them. So to ur eyes “we’re right behind them,” but in reality they have a two 5* lead in recruiting.
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My bad.
 
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561Cane said:
Good pickup.

How are the 24 Safeties progressing - Mack, Day, and Thomas? Haven't heard much about them this off season.
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dont think mack is a safety
-Day is progressing and has put on some weight. Pete and dmoney spoke on him last week. Coaches like him. He appears to be like 6'1 195 right now.
 
The size concerns with Redding are legit but I’d say more minimized in the current game. The big knock your head off safety has largely been regulated out of the game. You really want safeties who can play in space, cover, and tackle. Obviously, size helps, but it’s not as important when you can’t knock guys out over the middle. He’s similar size to Jaquan coming out of HS. His trajectory is TBD.
 
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