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Former BTW 5*Ja’Corey Brooks not starting for Bama...

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AUcane said:
Pretty safe to say X will be a 4th-5th round type. KSmith won't get drafted based on his current trajectory. He has a long way to go before he exits the "UFA" tag. Same for all the other WRs.
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Why is Restrepo safe to say 4th-5th?
 
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AUcane said:
Pretty safe to say X will be a 4th-5th round type. KSmith won't get drafted based on his current trajectory. He has a long way to go before he exits the "UFA" tag. Same for all the other WRs.
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Sure, if the draft were today, maybe those guys don't get drafted.

But excluding Restrepo who you concede, would you be comfortable saying that not a single WR on our roster will EVENTUALLY be drafted?

Just based of statistics alone, at least 1 guy is for sure getting drafted. We may not know who.

But when is the last time we had a WR core who didn't have a single WR drafted?
 
cway313 said:
Why is Restrepo safe to say 4th-5th?
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Because he has a ceiling and is a certain skillset. He's not a 1st/2nd round type from a pro potential pov. Could he be 3rd? Possibly but 4th-5th is most likely imo.

Da Jumbo Mutombo said:
Sure, if the draft were today, maybe those guys don't get drafted.

But excluding Restrepo who you concede, would you be comfortable saying that not a single WR on our roster will EVENTUALLY be drafted?

Just based of statistics alone, at least 1 guy is for sure getting drafted. We may not know who.

But when is the last time we had a WR core who didn't have a single WR drafted?
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I didn't say if the draft were today. I said based on their current trajectory. If they continue to produce lackluster numbers, I don't know that any of them will be drafted, TBH. Admitedly, though, this year is a big year for a bunch of them. Is it possible ONE of them could be drafted? I suppose but 1-2 is best case scenario and we're talking middle round type.


Da Jumbo Mutombo said:
But when is the last time we had a WR core who didn't have a single WR drafted?
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Just look at the last few years.
 
Da Jumbo Mutombo said:
Sure, if the draft were today, maybe those guys don't get drafted.

But excluding Restrepo who you concede, would you be comfortable saying that not a single WR on our roster will EVENTUALLY be drafted?

Just based of statistics alone, at least 1 guy is for sure getting drafted. We may not know who.

But when is the last time we had a WR core who didn't have a single WR drafted?
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Since 2016 we've had 1 receiver drafted before 6th round. It's possible everybody could get drafted but based off current trajectory maybe Restrepo gets drafted at best. Similar to maybe Brooks get drafted if he gets another shot. 6th and 7th round picks are typically practice squad players that get cut first. I'm not in the market of wanting our players to do bad but as of now none of them look promising. That doesn't mean they can't improve.
 
Yellow Snowman said:
My guy over there has 4 Ferrari's and can only fit 3 in his garage, and I'm posting up over here with a Buick LaCrosse....yeah, i'll take that Ferrari
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This analogy is spot on… we’ve got a team full of receivers that wouldn’t start at Bama, so yeah, taking their odd man out is still probably an upgrade.

Not sure if Brooks is the answer or not, but to say we wouldn’t take another teams scraps is naive. If we took that approach no one would remember Jalen Phillips.
 
I'm just confused at both of your outlooks on trajectory.

Because they didn't come out as Freshman and Sophomores and light up the world? Almost all of our receivers were underclassmen last season and behind

1. Single season record breaking WR
2. Career holder of many records and in his 5th or 6th year.

Those guys were old. Even as a #3 and sophmore, K. Smith put up nice stats.

College football has huge turnover, meaning players who did crap last year can blow up the next year. Thats why all this talk about trajectory based off current numbers doesn't add up.


Also, you tried to change the benchmark again. First you mention an arbitrary 20 catch minimum. Now you mention higher than the 6th round?

Stick to the original stance, you said none of our WRs will get drafted. That hasn't happened in over 20 years at the minimum.
 
AUcane said:
Because he has a ceiling and is a certain skillset. He's not a 1st/2nd round type from a pro potential pov. Could he be 3rd? Possibly but 4th-5th is most likely imo.



I didn't say if the draft were today. I said based on their current trajectory. If they continue to produce lackluster numbers, I don't know that any of them will be drafted, TBH. Admitedly, though, this year is a big year for a bunch of them. Is it possible ONE of them could be drafted? I suppose but 1-2 is best case scenario and we're talking middle round type.




Just look at the last few years.
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Last few years when? We've always had at least one WR drafted on the roster at any given time.
 
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305407cane said:
Wasn’t berrios a 7th rounder and then Osborn a 4th?
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Thanks. 2 guys in 4 years and before that, Coley in the 7th.

Then, compare their production while here vs the kind of production/impact the guys on our current roster are having.
 
cway313 said:
The only WR from Miami drafted in the last 4 years was a transfer? How is this accurate?
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Its accurate.

If the team has a player that hasn't exhausted eligibility then we can't count that year. Bc that play may still be drafted. Those years are pending.

Dating back to teams where all WRs have exhausted eligibility, we have KJ, Barrios, Coley recently.
 
And both KJ and Braxton are killing it. They were fairly elite there final years here. But both are making their teams very happy. The Patriots must be wondering how they missed.
 
Any time we don't get a WR from South Florida yall wait for them to fail like...
page hop GIF


Sour grapes.

Brooks has already proved that he's pretty good. He's a Sophomore. Relax.
 
Da Jumbo Mutombo said:
I'm just confused at both of your outlooks on trajectory.

Because they didn't come out as Freshman and Sophomores and light up the world? Almost all of our receivers were underclassmen last season and behind

1. Single season record breaking WR
2. Career holder of many records and in his 5th or 6th year.

Those guys were old. Even as a #3 and sophmore, K. Smith put up nice stats.

College football has huge turnover, meaning players who did crap last year can blow up the next year. Thats why all this talk about trajectory based off current numbers doesn't add up.


Also, you tried to change the benchmark again. First you mention an arbitrary 20 catch minimum. Now you mention higher than the 6th round?

Stick to the original stance, you said none of our WRs will get drafted. That hasn't happened in over 20 years at the minimum.
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Receiver is a position that if you're the real deal, you contribute 20%+ marketshare early. If by Year 3 you're still just another guy on the roster (not getting 20%+ marketshare) you slot in as a UDFA or Day 3 guy. There are exceptions, for sure...but if you look at the Breakout WR model re: marketshare, its consistently a good measure of what you've got.

Right now, we've got just a bunch of guys until one of these guys does something about it.

Your example for Key Smith...I don't think he put up "nice stats"...he had a 10% marketshare for yards, 12% marketshare of receiving touchdowns...literally anybody can do that (and if you can't, you're a scrub). If that is your top returning performer at the position, you're got questions and need answers fast.
 
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BoxingRobes said:
Receiver is a position that if you're the real deal, you contribute 20%+ marketshare early. If by Year 3 you're still just another guy on the roster (not getting 20%+ marketshare) you slot in as a UDFA or Day 3 guy. There are exceptions, for sure...but if you look at the Breakout WR model re: marketshare, its consistently a good measure of what you've got.

Right now, we've got just a bunch of guys until one of these guys does something about it.

Your example for Key Smith...I don't think he put up "nice stats"...he had a 10% marketshare for yards, 12% marketshare of receiving touchdowns...literally anybody can do that (and if you can't, you're a scrub). If that is your top returning performer at the position, you're got questions and need answers fast.
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You just said if by year 3, you're not getting 20% marketshare....

But then used K.Smith as an example. A guy who hasn't played a game yet in year 3.

Exactly my point, all these guys were underclassmen. Too early to write them off.
 
Da Jumbo Mutombo said:
You just said if by year 3, you're not getting 20% marketshare....

But then used K.Smith as an example. A guy who hasn't played a game yet in year 3.

Exactly my point, all these guys were underclassmen. Too early to write them off.
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Its not too early to write them off...but at this point they are lotto tickets. As I said, the data on Age 18 and Age 19 Breakout players being real deal collegiate and pro WRs is pretty sound (please look it up, its a good study). Now once you get to Age 20, you're just a lotto ticket. Lots of WRs develop late, but they aren't your R1, R2, or even most R3 type WRs (again, there are exceptions, especially once you get into Day 2, look at Old Man Velus Jones who got drafted last year in R3 at 45 years old).

At this point, Keyshawn is a lotto ticket. All of our WRs, IMO, that are going into 3rd year and up are lotto tickets...X included. If you go into the year with nothing but lotto tickets...that can be a tough year.
 
BoxingRobes said:
Its not too early to write them off...but at this point they are lotto tickets. As I said, the data on Age 18 and Age 19 Breakout players being real deal collegiate and pro WRs is pretty sound (please look it up, its a good study). Now once you get to Age 20, you're just a lotto ticket. Lots of WRs develop late, but they aren't your R1, R2, or even most R3 type WRs (again, there are exceptions, especially once you get into Day 2, look at Old Man Velus Jones who got drafted last year in R3 at 45 years old).

At this point, Keyshawn is a lotto ticket. All of our WRs, IMO, that are going into 3rd year and up are lotto tickets...X included. If you go into the year with nothing but lotto tickets...that can be a tough year.
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Where can I find that study. Link?
 
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