RealRussellPumps
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Pretty solid breakdown. Only disagreements from me are I think best case for UF is 7 wins and Miami's best case is 10 wins.With the season a few days away, I thought it'd be interesting to look at where the Florida Big 3 schools will end up this year (with best case scenarios, worst case scenarios, and what we'd predict would actually happen). Here's how I see it:
Florida
Florida State
- Best Case Scenario: 8-4 (5-3)
- Worst Case Scenario: 4-8 (2-6)
- Season Prediction: 6-6 (4-4)
- How it Plays Out --> With only 54% of its production from 2022 returning in 2023 (No. 107 out of 133 FBS Teams), the Gators will be a much changed team. Add in one of the Top 10 hardest schedules in the country, and that Gators are staring a season that'll either be a surprising success or expected failure. Graham Mertz is the new guy under center, and he's had an up and down career to say the least. Florida has a stable of solid RB's lead by Trevor Etienne, some solid guys on the OL, and a number of high ceiling yet unproven guys on defense. All in all, Florida ends up at 6-6 (4-4).
Florida just lost too much production from last year from a team that wasn't very good to begin with, lost a much better QB in Anthony Richardson, and lost some key guys on defense. Add in a brutal schedule and it'll be too much for the Gators to overcome with the game manager QB and young but unproven talent. Nevertheless, Florida will get to bowl eligibility, as they have enough talent to do it. Add in some luck to win a game they probably shouldn't have, and there'll be enough for 6 wins. Whether Billy Napier survives is TBD.
Miami
- Best Case Scenario: 11-1 (8-0)
- Worst Case Scenario: 8-4 (5-3)
- Season Prediction: 9-3 (6-2)
- How it Plays Out --> With 87% of its production from 2022 returning in 2023 (No. 1 out of 133 FBS Teams), Florida State will come into the 2023 season as the top to bottom most experienced team in the country. Florida State is being lauded by many CFB analysts as a CFP contender in 2023, and as one of the most dangerous teams in the country. With guys like Jordan Travis, Jared Verse, Johnny Wilson, Keon Coleman, Trey Benson, and Akeem Dent, this FSU team has the potential to be very good. Having gone 10-3 (5-3) last year, the Noles have momentum going into 2023.
Nevertheless, though the Noles went 10-3, they were a few bounces and calls away from going 7-5 regular season, and losing their bowl game against a depleted 6-6 Oklahoma team. Of FSU's 10 wins, 7 wins were against teams that finished the season .500 or below (Boston College, Duquesne, Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, and Louisiana-Monroe), whereas 3 wins were against teams that finished the season above .500 (Louisville, LSU, and Syracuse). If you do the math, FSU's W's were against opponents with a combined record of 60-66 (0.476) and their L's were to opponents with a combined record of 27-13 (0.675). Additionally, the Noles also had good injury luck, with none of its key players going down for any extended period of time (to FSU's credit, Jordan Travis did go down for a half in a very close game against Louisville, and they were able to close out that W).
Ultimately, FSU will go 9-3 (6-2), with losses to LSU, Clemson, and one of Duke/Miami/Pitt/WF. This will be a very good team, and one that will play for an ACC Championship rematch against Clemson. However, FSU is a top heavy team, with a stellar starting 22, but major question marks beyond that. Additionally, 1-2 injuries on offense (particularly to Jordan Travis) would change the entire trajectory of this team, and I doubt the Noles will get the injury luck they had last year. Moreover, the Noles won't be catching anyone by surprise this year. 8-4 is possible if the Noles are 2-2 heading into the bye, and a number of players being prioritizing their NFL prospects over diminished CFP hopes.
Let me know what y'all think, but I think these are some reasonable predictions. I definitely think we can get to 9-3 regular season, but betting the under on Miami is the smart thing to do until they show us otherwise.
- Best Case Scenario: 9-3 (6-2)
- Worst Case Scenario: 6-6 (3-5)
- Prediction: 8-4 (4-4)
- How it Plays Out --> With 70% of its 2022 production returning in 2023 (No. 35 out of 133 FBS teams; Top 20 in production returning on defense) and more than 40 new players on its roster, Miami will be a much changed team in 2023. Mario Cristobal's debut as Miami's HC was an unmitigated disaster, with a 5-7 final record and humiliating losses to Florida State and Middle Tennessee State University, among others. To say that Cristobal misjudged his 2022 squad and misfired on his initial coaching hires would be an understatement. Add in a number of crucial injuries, most important being those to starting QB TVD, and Miami was a recipe for disaster.
With seemingly good hires at OC and DC, the return of TVD (who showed flashes in 2021), a stacked RB Room, a much better OL (by way of recruiting and the portal), and some solid talent, this Miami team looks to be much better. Much has been said on this board about how we'll do. All in all, I believe that this team will look much like the 2016 Miami Hurricanes, a team that was lead by an experienced QB, had talent, and flashed at points throughout the year. At 8-4, Miami will have shown good progress and have the potential for a 9-win season via their bowl matchup. Additionally, Miami will steal a win against one of Clemson/FSU/Texas A&M/UNC. Nevertheless, a few injuries can change the trajectory of this season as Miami is still not where it needs to be in terms of depth or experience, so Miami must stay healthy to get to 8-wins.
