Fireside Chat with your Dear Legend

[BoxingRobes]

re: how "good" this team is...idk man

What Miami has done this year is no different than last year so far. The good is just all front loaded. Our final three wins of a six win season of 2019 were against Louisville, Florida State, and Pitt. We've got UVA up next and thats the four of six wins we had in 2019.

The vibe is a little different, but is that a by product of being 4-1 while we are winning these games versus 6-4 when we finished off this same murderers row of teams last year?

Our offense is better...sure, IMO it is... But in 2019, our putrid offense averaged 5.66 yards per play...this year we're only averaging 5.81 yards per play. While D'Eriq King is much better than what we had at quarterback last year, he is averaging 7.1 yards per pass at a 59.5% clip while last year our collective slop had 7.4 with leading passer having a 61.4% completion percentage.

The defense has gotten a little worse...losing 4-year senior linebackers, a starting corner, your best overall defensive player will do this to many teams. 2019, 4.74 yards allowed per play, this year 5.16 yards per play allowed. We've gone from 3.54 sacks per game in 2019 to 2.8 sacks per game this year. We're still getting in the backfield at a high clip 9.8 tackles for loss per game (versus 8.31 in 2019 - for context, both numbers are Top 5 in the nation currently). Oddly, most of us would say our pass defense has gotten worse, we are averaging 6.3 yards per attempt - good for 12th in the nation versus 6.7 yards per attempt a year ago. I think our defense has taken a step back, but I feel a lot of it has to do with the loss of Rousseau. Its not a hot take, but I think we're missing Rousseau more than we wanted to admit going into the year.

Do I think we are better than a year ago? Of course. How much better...idk. I'm not sure we're much better, but having a mature veteran leader at quarterback in D'Eriq King has been nice and if we are better, he's the reason. He's been a nice Joe Hamilton like presence back there. Need to see if the talent upgrade at just the QB position can get us over the hump versus VaTech and UNC type teams in the ACC and not get upset during noon kick slogs like last week versus Pitt.

 

[Mandingo]

Excellent stuff, Mr. M. Did you see the play late in the game where McCloud dropped into coverage, and Pitt dropped a short pass over him to Addison I think? McCloud just had to turn around and cut Addison off, and it's a 5 yard gain. Instead, he looked completely lost, took a putrid angle, and Addison was off to the races.

You're right about King too. Seems like he's a little slow to react. With a guy like that, maybe it's better off he takes off a little sooner instead of holding the ball too long and taking sacks or having any escape lane taken away.

I'll never figure out why we refuse to take advantage of the mismatches Mallory gives us, and he's a giant target for King too unlike some of our midget WRs.

McCloud I’m sure is a great young man. But he’s no Miami LB.

We gotta let King be King. Russell Wilson ran all over the place at Wisky. It took time to develop into the player he is today. We have to let king be king. I am not saying he is Russell Wilson. I’m just saying I think we are rushing his development.

Not using Mallory more is baffling to me.

 

[Rellyrell]

No no no, hold on. We're saying the same thing. Pope is not very good. Don't get me wrong there. I'm talking specifically about this game, relative to the other WR's, who played as bad as I've seen receivers play in 30 years of watching Miami football. I think he's getting lumped in with the heap from this game (even though he actually played fine) partly due to his horrific stint as a PR.

He's fast. That's it. He's not even shifty.

OK bro; I got you. My fault for misunderstanding.

 

[Rellyrell]

There is the perception (that we would have lost if Pickett had played) driven by the lopsided Clemson loss and then there is the reality: unless you think at the end of the season Pitt is a top 16 team with Pickett (and personally, I don't), the numbers show there is about a 3% chance they would have scored more than 31 points.

They were in our RZ a lot, like a lot a lot. Yellen had gaping running lanes that would’ve been exploited by Pickett. The difference in score was Pitt bogged down in our RZ by either dumb penalties or Yellen not taking advantage of some missed ops. Maybe we still win, but I admonish you to go back & watch the game. I think Pickett rips us a new one w/ his legs & some of those 3’s become 7 that we gave up,

 

[ssvir]

Is this a technicality because he sure as fck beat an undefeated UM team in 2017 and played the vast majority of that game. Did he come in after a series?

Pickett was 18/29 for 193 and 1 TD in 2017 and a whopping 88.5 QBR.

Miami lost b/c Rosier showed he was trash with a QBR of 30.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

They were in our RZ a lot, like a lot a lot. Yellen had gaping running lanes that would’ve been exploited by Pickett. The difference in score was Pitt bogged down in our RZ by either dumb penalties or Yellen not taking advantage of some missed ops. Maybe we still win, but I admonish you to go back & watch the game. I think Pickett rips us a new one w/ his legs & some of those 3’s become 7 that we gave up,

Stats.
54 games. Only twice has the defense given up more than 31 to a team ranked lower than 16. 2/54=. 037. So less than 4% chance Miami loses to Pitt and Pickett as I don't believe they are ranked higher than 16 at the end of the season.

Somehow the fans on this site turned Pickett into Joe Burrows. This is the guy you are sweating.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2017	Pitt	ACC	FR	QB	4	39	66	59.1	509	7.7	7.3	1	1	125.8
*2018	Pitt	ACC	SO	QB	14	180	310	58.1	1969	6.4	6.3	12	6	120.3
*2019	Pitt	ACC	JR	QB	12	289	469	61.6	3098	6.6	6.3	13	9	122.4
2020	Pitt	ACC	SR	QB	5	108	180	60.0	1389	7.7	7.9	8	3	136.2
Career	Pitt					616	1025	60.1	6965	6.8	6.6	34	19	124.4

​

Look at that TD to INT ratio. Bro, he's not that good a QB.

And again, if you want to project the game with Pickett, why aren't you projecting the game with Jordan and Williams for Miami? It was clear that King was more comfortable throwing to the TE, and we just happened to be missing one of the best TEs in the country and one of our best OL. As it was, Miami easily could have added another late TD but chose not to, and the final score would have been 38-19 (we had 1st and 10 at the Pitt 21 with 1:48 left in the 4th, but Diaz decided to end it there). Would 38-19 be enough of a decisive win against one of the best defenses in the country (currently #7 in total yards) make you feel better or would you be grumbling that Miami should have won 50-0?

 

[Rellyrell]

Stats.
54 games. Only twice has the defense given up more than 31 to a team ranked lower than 16. 2/54=. 037. So less than 4% chance Miami loses to Pitt and Pickett as I don't believe they are ranked higher than 16 at the end of the season.

Somehow the fans on this site turned Pickett into Joe Burrows. This is the guy you are sweating.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2017	Pitt	ACC	FR	QB	4	39	66	59.1	509	7.7	7.3	1	1	125.8
*2018	Pitt	ACC	SO	QB	14	180	310	58.1	1969	6.4	6.3	12	6	120.3
*2019	Pitt	ACC	JR	QB	12	289	469	61.6	3098	6.6	6.3	13	9	122.4
2020	Pitt	ACC	SR	QB	5	108	180	60.0	1389	7.7	7.9	8	3	136.2
Career	Pitt					616	1025	60.1	6965	6.8	6.6	34	19	124.4

​

Look at that TD to INT ratio. Bro, he's not that good a QB.

And again, if you want to project the game with Pickett, why aren't you projecting the game with Jordan and Williams for Miami? It was clear that King was more comfortable throwing to the TE, and we just happened to be missing one of the best TEs in the country and one of our best OL. As it was, Miami easily could have added another late TD but chose not to, and the final score would have been 38-19 (we had 1st and 10 at the Pitt 21 with 1:48 left in the 4th, but Diaz decided to end it there). Would 38-19 be enough of a decisive win against one of the best defenses in the country (currently #7 in total yards) make you feel better or would you be grumbling that Miami should have won 50-0?

Wasn’t Williams a healthy scratch based upon his performance or lack thereof? King had Brevin last game & still did chit w it. U’re comparing apples & oranges. Last yr Pickett is not the same as this yr’s Pickett, just like 2018 King is not the same as 2020 King.

Point being we struggled against Pitt w/ a backup QB. We’re an average team that’s 4-1. Hopefully, we tighten it up and become an above average squad.

 

[JgDaCane]

Not quite as obvious as your white flag here.

Don't use labels if you are unable to defend them with facts.

Eye test > whatever you’re talking about D. We are a pretty decent team. That’s about it.

 

[JgDaCane]

Tier 1 -

Bama
Clemson
Ohio St
UGA

Tier 2 -

Oklahoma (Tier 1 before this year)
Penn St
Oregon
Wisconsin


We’re not in the same tier as these teams, at least not yet.. all 8 would beat us, prob pretty good too

Penn State is not good this year. I know homers saying 3-4 losses.

 

[Mandingo]

They were in our RZ a lot, like a lot a lot. Yellen had gaping running lanes that would’ve been exploited by Pickett. The difference in score was Pitt bogged down in our RZ by either dumb penalties or Yellen not taking advantage of some missed ops. Maybe we still win, but I admonish you to go back & watch the game. I think Pickett rips us a new one w/ his legs & some of those 3’s become 7 that we gave up,

We are terrible at keeping contain. We would totally collapse inside and leave the the edge wide open. A running QB would have killed us...

 

[DTP]

re: how "good" this team is...idk man

What Miami has done this year is no different than last year so far. The good is just all front loaded. Our final three wins of a six win season of 2019 were against Louisville, Florida State, and Pitt. We've got UVA up next and thats the four of six wins we had in 2019.

The vibe is a little different, but is that a by product of being 4-1 while we are winning these games versus 6-4 when we finished off this same murderers row of teams last year?

Our offense is better...sure, IMO it is... But in 2019, our putrid offense averaged 5.66 yards per play...this year we're only averaging 5.81 yards per play. While D'Eriq King is much better than what we had at quarterback last year, he is averaging 7.1 yards per pass at a 59.5% clip while last year our collective slop had 7.4 with leading passer having a 61.4% completion percentage.

The defense has gotten a little worse...losing 4-year senior linebackers, a starting corner, your best overall defensive player will do this to many teams. 2019, 4.74 yards allowed per play, this year 5.16 yards per play allowed. We've gone from 3.54 sacks per game in 2019 to 2.8 sacks per game this year. We're still getting in the backfield at a high clip 9.8 tackles for loss per game (versus 8.31 in 2019 - for context, both numbers are Top 5 in the nation currently). Oddly, most of us would say our pass defense has gotten worse, we are averaging 6.3 yards per attempt - good for 12th in the nation versus 6.7 yards per attempt a year ago. I think our defense has taken a step back, but I feel a lot of it has to do with the loss of Rousseau. Its not a hot take, but I think we're missing Rousseau more than we wanted to admit going into the year.

Do I think we are better than a year ago? Of course. How much better...idk. I'm not sure we're much better, but having a mature veteran leader at quarterback in D'Eriq King has been nice and if we are better, he's the reason. He's been a nice Joe Hamilton like presence back there. Need to see if the talent upgrade at just the QB position can get us over the hump versus VaTech and UNC type teams in the ACC and not get upset during noon kick slogs like last week versus Pitt.

You need to get a more even sample size of games to actually compare numbers between last season and this one. Mostly because the Clemson game (20% of the season so far) skews numbers significantly. Not only did they play nobody near Clemson’s level last season, you’re essentially replacing that game with a game against Bethune Cookman (coincidentally, Miami’s best offense output of the season). To make an honest comparison, you would have to wait until the season is over, drop the best and worst game (outliers) and then make a comparison. Even then it would be skewed because Miami got to play an FCS team and 3 G5 teams in 2019. This year’s schedule is considerably tougher.

If you want to make the direct comparison between the three common opponents (Pitt, UL and FSU) the average score of those games in 2019 was 32-16. In 2020 the average score was 43-21. So while the defense has surrendered on average 5 more points, the offense is scoring 11 more points on average. Let’s not forget we almost lost the Pitt game in 2019 and needed a last second Jarren Williams to KJ Osborne touchdown to win that one 16-12.

Superstar quarterback Kenny Pickett led the Panthers to a grand total of 12 points. Thank god we lucked out by not playing him this year.

 

[The Franchise]

They were in our RZ a lot, like a lot a lot. Yellen had gaping running lanes that would’ve been exploited by Pickett. The difference in score was Pitt bogged down in our RZ by either dumb penalties or Yellen not taking advantage of some missed ops. Maybe we still win, but I admonish you to go back & watch the game. I think Pickett rips us a new one w/ his legs & some of those 3’s become 7 that we gave up,

This is where the guys quoting Pickett's stats against us from 2 years ago go off the rails. Watch the **** game. If you follow football and know a lick about Pitt and Pickett, you'd know that Pickett would have taken advantage of a lot of the opportunities Yellen missed, especially with his legs. Of course, no one knows for sure if Pitt would have won with Pickett playing, but I think they would have based on what I've seen this year.

 

[The Franchise]

Pickett was 18/29 for 193 and 1 TD in 2017 and a whopping 88.5 QBR.

Miami lost b/c Rosier showed he was trash with a QBR of 30.

LOL. Watch the fcking games and quit quoting me stats. Pickett willed them to victory in that game.

That's where you stats guys fall apart. You don't pick up the nuances of leadership and clutch play by looking at stats. Pickett was dragging LBs and DL for extra yards for 1st downs on scrambles and made the big throws to extend drives. He didn't throw for 500 yards, but he didn't have to. He did enough to beat us.

 

[The Franchise]

Superstar quarterback Kenny Pickett led the Panthers to a grand total of 12 points. Thank god we lucked out by not playing him this year.

You guys love fcking up what could be good discussions by being snarky. Let me try to get some honest discussion going instead of snippy comments.

Have you watched Pitt play this year?

Do you think Pickett is a better QB than Yellen?

Would a better QB be more likely to take advantage of some plays that a lesser QB left on the field?

Would you feel we had a better chance to beat Pitt with King than with Perry? Or does the QB not matter?

 

[ssvir]

LOL. Watch the fcking games and quit quoting me stats. Pickett willed them to victory in that game.

That's where you stats guys fall apart. You don't pick up the nuances of leadership and clutch play by looking at stats. Pickett was dragging LBs and DL for extra yards for 1st downs on scrambles and made the big throws to extend drives. He didn't throw for 500 yards, but he didn't have to. He did enough to beat us.

I watched that game and have watched every UM game for the last 30 years, including many in person. Go ahead and die on your hill of Pickett is good. It's hilarious that you think watching some football on the weekend entitles you to some holier than thou opinions. You know nothing about the game armchair coach.

 

[The Franchise]

I watched that game and have watched every UM game for the last 30 years, including many in person. Go ahead and die on your hill of Pickett is good. It's hilarious that you think watching some football on the weekend entitles you to some holier than thou opinions. You know nothing about the game armchair coach.

Get out of my thread, yuck mouth.

 

[DTP]

You guys love fcking up what could be good discussions by being snarky. Let me try to get some honest discussion going instead of snippy comments.

Have you watched Pitt play this year?

Do you think Pickett is a better QB than Yellen?

Would a better QB be more likely to take advantage of some plays that a lesser QB left on the field?

Would you feel we had a better chance to beat Pitt with King than with Perry? Or does the QB not matter?

I don’t think there a significant drop off from Pickett to Yellen. I think there’s a significant drop off from King to Perry.

Pickett’s average numbers against FBS competition in 2020 are 275 yards on 57% completions 1.75 tds/ .75 interceptions. Rushing averages are 11 carries for 24 yards per game. He had a 411 yard game against NCSt.

Yellen against Miami was 277 yards in 48% completions 1 TD 0 int. He had 3 rushes for -28 (all sacks)

Its not like Pickett is great. He’s been an average quarterback for four seasons and his numbers back that up. He’s played Miami 3 times and never looked great. Some timely scrambles in a game where Malik Rosier couldn’t complete a forward pass in 2017 and two duds in 2018 and 2019 when he didn’t throw for over 136 yards just isn’t that impressive.

 

[ssvir]

Get out of my thread, yuck mouth.

Expected response. You've been exposed as the wizard in the magical land of Oz puffing out your chest all the time when all you have is armchair QB football knowledge.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Oh bud, I didn’t mean actual noise. Poor choice of words on my part. I meant their ‘noise’ as in we are going to bring the noise and they are not ready for the anvil of pressure were are going to put on them as a football team.

noise meaning- we play in big games all the time and these clowns can’t stay on side so they are dead men walking.

Gotcha, no big deal. I was getting worried that you had gone full-Mullet and thought there were 50,000 fans behind our bench!

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I didn't expect elite either. I expect to play in the ACCCG. You don't need to be elite to do that, and we still have a shot.

I'd like to think that Miami playing Pitt was like Uncle Milty competing in a "longest d!ck" competition...we pulled out just enough to win.