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ESPN win percentage probability by game

Go Canes!!

Go Canes!!

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Interesting, especially the UNC game.
 
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grover said:
Something weird about their model. According to this, Appy State looks like a better team that Michigan State, Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke. And FSU is our toughest ACC opponent after UNC and Pitt. Not sure I agree with all of that.
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App state has a **** good program and will be a relatively tough out imo. Think people don’t realize how awful Michigan
State will be. They’re basically turning over half their roster this year.
 
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Those numbers are based on what they expect the Vegas line to be. So having a 79% chance of beat APP St means they expect we will be about an 11 to 14 pt fav for that game. Historically, with that spread, the favorite has won 79% of time.

If the App game were at any other point in the season I would expect us to be favored by more but Vegas is factoring a letdown after the Bama game.
 
Go Canes!! said:
App state has a **** good program and will be a relatively tough out imo. Think people don’t realize how awful Michigan
State will be. They’re basically turning over half their roster this year.
Click to expand...

What was that nonsense from the last time we played App State- didn't some portly App State cheerleader make up lies about the team and say she'd been harassed by the Miami players or something like that?
 
Rankings must be off of name only.
App State is better than the ****noles, MichState, definitely.
 
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grover said:
Something weird about their model. According to this, Appy State looks like a better team that Michigan State, Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech and Duke. And FSU is our toughest ACC opponent after UNC and Pitt. Not sure I agree with all of that.
Click to expand...
Appy State was ranked higher than those other teams at the end of last year.
FSU is a road rivalry.

I can see where they're coming from but we're going to crush them both.
 
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Is this basically how they get to a 9 win number? I'm pretty sure the aggregation of those percentages yields 9 wins.
 
BS85 said:
Lmao, that **** was funny. Literally nobody took that girl seriously as she was clearly so full of ****.
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She should have been suspended from school for her clearly false accusations. There were a half dozen different videos from various angles that showed that the players were nowhere near her. She basically made up a story and tried to pin a crime on black teenagers ( she alleged a crime had taken place because she said she had been assaulted). Of course the media ran with it because it involved Miami and then didn't publish a follow on story that highlighted how an overweight app state flag twirler deliberately lied to get Miami players in trouble.

Maybe now with all the racial tension in the country, the media will have incentive to gin up interest in the game and will actually talk about the clearly racist false accusations made by an app state student the last time the teams played. Would be nice for our guys to come out fired up and ready to punish app state for that bigoted nonsense.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
Those numbers are based on what they expect the Vegas line to be. So having a 79% chance of beat APP St means they expect we will be about an 11 to 14 pt fav for that game. Historically, with that spread, the favorite has won 79% of time.

If the App game were at any other point in the season I would expect us to be favored by more but Vegas is factoring a letdown after the Bama game.
Click to expand...
The only one that seems off is the Carolina game. The orginal FPI is based on a neutral field matchup. The 52% chance to win implies were 1-1.5 point favorites. Home field normally gives 2-3 points to the home side. So ESPN must believe we’re about FG to 4.5 points better than UNC at a neutral site. Im not arguing that. I’m arguing that every preseason ranking that says UNC is the projected better team.
 
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