I don't disagree with this, at all. But you're coming at it from the standpoint of a practical observer of the NFL, not the people who vote for Hall of Famers. They value things a little differently, IMO. If you have to ask me, I think he gets in. But it's going to be a long wait. There's going to be a logjam at QB, there's already a few other eligible receivers deserving consideration, and then you've got Megatron, Fitzgerald, Bruce, Wayne, etc lined up. You get five modern-era players per year, meaning you can only vote in half the positions in one class, on average.
At the same time, these are the voters who put Terrell Davis in, when Edge is still not. So... who the f--- knows?
I am definitely not trying to predict biases in the voting. I at one point went and compared both Wayne and AJ against the ‘marginal’ WR members the HOF has left in recently. What the facts showed is that:
- It the modern era, the only HOF WRs with as many all pro seasons as Andre Johnson are Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison
- If you focus only on 1st team all pro seasons, the only ones at or above AJ are Rice, Owens, Harrison and Randy Moss
If you separate out the guys who have multiple SB titles, then Irvin and Monk get grouped differently, as do Swann and Stallworth. Rightly or wrongly, the HOF voters judged SBs more important there. Biggest question mark is Monk, imo, who had only 2 all pro selections in his career. Harrison and C. Carter also get grouped differently because of being atop the all time records at the time they retired (each top 3 in receptions and reception tds). (Harrison also had the all pro creds.)
The right comparison group then is T. Brown, J. Lofton and A. Reed. Reed has the worst creds of anyone in the group - 0x first team all pro, 3x second team, no SB titles. But I suspect he gets credit for 4 SB appearances, and it’s a Bills chit for a team that needed recognition. Maybe he’s an asterisk. T. Brown is 2x first team, 1x second team all pro, and no SB titles. Loften was 1x first team, 3x second team, no superbowls.
It is clear that as far as WRs go, Andre Johnson was top 2 in the league for an extended period (3x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 7x pro bowl), and very few other guys here can say that, and several here you can definitely say they weren’t. He’s clearly a more qualified candidate than Brown, Lofton and Reed. Wayne isn’t an interesting candidate on any one metric (1x first team, 2x second team all pro, 6x pro bowl), but his combination of 1 SB title along with longevity and hence records makes him credible.
———
AJ: 3x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 7x pro bowl
Wayne: 1x first team, 2x second team, 6x pro bowl
For comparison:
Rice: 10x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 13x pro bowl, 3 SB titles
Owens: 5x first team all pro, 3x second team all pro, 6x pro bowl
Harrison: 5x first team all pro, 3x second team all pro, 8x pro bowl, 1 SB title
T. Brown: 2x first team all pro, 1x second team all pro, 9x pro bowl
Irvin: 1x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 5x pro bowl, 3 SB titles
Loften: 1x first team all pro, 3x second team all pro, 8x pro bowl
A. Reed: 0x first team all pro, 3x second team all pro, 7x pro bowl
C. Carter: 2x first team all pro, 1x second team all pro, 8x pro bowl
Monk: 1x first team all pro, 1x second team all pro, 3x pro bowl, 3 SB titles
Swann: 1x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 3x pro bowl, 4 SB titles
Stallworth: 1x first team all pro, 2x second team all pro, 3x pro bowl, 4 SB titles