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Early Line: UNC vs Canes

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Fwiw, I once spoke to the head linesman of The Greek casino in Jamaica and he told me those %’s you see of “X amount of the bets are on Y team” are bullshyt. I tend to believe him.
 
This is how I understand it. Vegas sets a spread so that 50% of the money comes down on 1 side and the other 50% of the money comes down on the other. That way whoever wins they make money because of the juice they charge. Now when a bunch of money comes down on one side they adjust the line so people then bet on the other side.
They also send out a bunch of information through their mass media to get people to bet where they want them to. All these radio bet shows broadcasted from Vegas work for Vegas. These You tube handicappers tell us what Vegas wants them to tell us.

It's all garbage. Bet with your gut.
 
Take the UNC ML. If Miami wins you are happy. It UNC wins at least you make money.

Think About It GIF by Identity
 
As of this Friday morning the day before game, Canes are -3.5 and the moneyline -175. The O/U is 66.
 
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Caneadian said:
This is how I understand it. Vegas sets a spread so that 50% of the money comes down on 1 side and the other 50% of the money comes down on the other. That way whoever wins they make money because of the juice they charge. Now when a bunch of money comes down on one side they adjust the line so people then bet on the other side.
They also send out a bunch of information through their mass media to get people to bet where they want them to. All these radio bet shows broadcasted from Vegas work for Vegas. These You tube handicappers tell us what Vegas wants them to tell us.

It's all garbage. Bet with your gut.
Click to expand...
Bookmakers do not want equal money on both sides. Here is an explanation as to why:

www.canesinsight.com

UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)

Again - "Vegas" always winning has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with whoever “Vegas” thinks is going to win any individual game - especially when the spread in that game is 2 points. In fact, if you were so inclined, you could’ve made a lot of money betting against “Vegas” in 5 or 6 of our games...
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com
 
Poptimus said:
Bookmakers do not want equal money on both sides. Here is an explanation as to why:

www.canesinsight.com

UL is a 2.5 point favorite (Updated 9/14)

Again - "Vegas" always winning has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with whoever “Vegas” thinks is going to win any individual game - especially when the spread in that game is 2 points. In fact, if you were so inclined, you could’ve made a lot of money betting against “Vegas” in 5 or 6 of our games...
www.canesinsight.com www.canesinsight.com
Click to expand...
So you’re saying that Vegas is pretty confident that we’re going to win?
If what other posters are saying that over 80% of the bets are for unc then they are really risking a whole lot of money.
So unless some of the well known gamblers put down a huge chunk on unc in the next 12 hrs that line ain’t moving?

I remember the Pitt game after the notre dame win where the spread shifted like 2 points the night before the game.
All the gamblers came on here and said something was up.
 
pacusmc said:
So you’re saying that Vegas is pretty confident that we’re going to win?
If what other posters are saying that over 80% of the bets are for unc then they are really risking a whole lot of money.
So unless some of the well known gamblers put down a huge chunk on unc in the next 12 hrs that line ain’t moving?

I remember the Pitt game after the notre dame win where the spread shifted like 2 points the night before the game.
All the gamblers came on here and said something was up.
Click to expand...
The consensus opening line (when betting limits are released and you can bet maximum amounts) appears to have been Miami -4.5 and the line is now Miami -3.5 at most outs. I would say that the sharp money has been on UNC.

Some (i.e., the good) casinos do not adjust their lines due to money, but rather they profile their bettors and adjust their odds due to wagers from "respect" accounts, accounts that are known to win. Since so few bettors win, these accounts are easy to profile and track, whether online or in a casino where they force you to use a player's card above a certain wager amount. A $250k wager by some square who happens to be loaded may not move the number at all, whereas a $20k wager from a respect account will. If a casino simply moved its odds based on money, a sharp bettor could easily place a $50k bet on the "wrong" side, watch the oddsmaker adjust the line, and then circle back with a few hundred grand on the "real" side -- at a better number.

This is a longwinded way of saying our line movement has not been good, but there's still plenty of time until kickoff and the late money moves are key to watch.
 
Maybe there’s some game time injury that Vegas knows about. The only new person that’s been reported out this week is their LB Cheeks.
 
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Poptimus said:
The consensus opening line (when betting limits are released and you can bet maximum amounts) appears to have been Miami -4.5 and the line is now Miami -3.5 at most outs. I would say that the sharp money has been on UNC.

Some (i.e., the good) casinos do not adjust their lines due to money, but rather they profile their bettors and adjust their odds due to wagers from "respect" accounts, accounts that are known to win. Since so few bettors win, these accounts are easy to profile and track, whether online or in a casino where they force you to use a player's card above a certain wager amount. A $250k wager by some square who happens to be loaded may not move the number at all, whereas a $20k wager from a respect account will. If a casino simply moved its odds based on money, a sharp bettor could easily place a $50k bet on the "wrong" side, watch the oddsmaker adjust the line, and then circle back with a few hundred grand on the "real" side -- at a better number.

This is a longwinded way of saying our line movement has not been good, but there's still plenty of time until kickoff and the late money moves are key to watch.
Click to expand...
Check the late money
 
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