Dumb Luck

[AboutTheU05]

First, we should have taken a knee. Let me get that said first and foremost. And look I get the doom and gloom. I get where people's minds are at right now because I'm ****ed off too. I haven't been this shook about a Miami game since Terry Porter's flag. It's like being punched in the gut and stabbed in the back at the same time. It ******* sucks.

But all that said, I feel like it's important to be reminded that sometimes dumb luck just plays a factor. Human beings are really bad at understanding probabilities and randomness, it's just how we're wired. Random **** happens and we try to put some kind of reasoning and meaning behind it, it's just human nature to all of us.

But the fact is the odds of having what happened yesterday are astronomically low. Even with the corching. 999/1000 times this doesn't happen. So many things have to go horribly wrong in exactly the right sequence for what happened, it's difficult to wrap your mind around. You'll most likely never see anything like it ever again in your life.

Don Chaney had 132 career carries at UM and before that one, he had never fumbled the ball. That's 1/132 odds, to start us off. Then, they recover. That's 50/50 odds. So the odds of Chaney fumbling and the other team recovering are now 1/264. (1/132 * 1/2). Then there's the last minute drive GA Tech had to win the game. According to ESPN stats, teams with the ball with that much time remaining are successful 9.7% of the time. We'll say 10% to make it easy. Now our odds are at 1/2640.

So we could run the exact same sequence over and over.... end games by handing the ball to Chaney instead of kneeling the ball, and we'd likely only see the same result once every 2640 games. That means we could do the same thing every single game, and what we saw happen would only happen once every 250 years or so.

It's a corching blunder for sure. I'm not discounting that. But I feel like it's important to remember that sometimes dumb bad luck just is what it is. What happened to us is equivalent to getting hit by a bus at the same time as being struck by lightning and having a piano fall on our heads at the same time. It's ****ed up but you'll probably never see it again as long as you live.

We come out of this on the other side, and we still have a good team. We have a team with enough talent and good enough schemes to beat anyone on our schedule. As a fan, all I can do is hope that they show up in North Carolina dialed in and with something to prove.

I’ll give you this……I stand by my definition for success this year at 8 wins or more regular season, 9 or more including a bowl game. If the team shows that type of improvement in the big picture then this won’t matter as much besides a meme.

At the same time, while I get the point you’re trying to make I can’t rationalize any viewpoint for the level of incompetence displayed by the HC last night. They’ll have a chance to prove it different, but I don’t trust this coaching staff a bit and don’t think they have it in them to overcome this. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Thats a once in a lifetime thing we just saw man everything on the planet went against us even the stripes our own coaches and our own players all at the same time.

Dwin....it wasn't once in a lifetime...I've been ringing this bell for a while...

the refs just outright exposed their thumbs on the scales for all to see.

and they'll just keep doing it and the talking heads will just say "that's the game, play better, coach better..."

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

Dwin....it wasn't once in a lifetime...I've been ringing this bell for a while...

the refs just outright exposed their thumbs on the scales for all to see.

and they'll just keep doing it and the talking heads will just say "that's the game, play better, coach better..."

The refs have been anti-Cane for a minute. But last night was particularly off in that regard.

 

[RightSaidFred]

No. You were creating a narrative that Mario's classes all needed to be "top 5" or bust. That way you could drag even a top 7 class as "below expectations".

If it's water under the bridge, don't bring it up. But, if you must bring it up, then get the facts right.

Below MY expectations. Because you can ask anyone who knows my posting history, I've been saying Top 5 classes are the bar since the day Rad and Mario were hired and this program started getting serious about football. I've been consistent about that Top 5 thing and never wavered or changed it. It wasn't in reaction to our top 7 class (actually 8th ranked), it was my expecation prior to the cycle even beginning.

I had/have that expecation because Mario and Rad stated in their opening press conferences that the goal was to win championships, and looking at previous champions in the modern era, a consistent run of top 5 classes is a good measuring stick for whether you'll achieve that goal.

 

[Empirical Cane]

My advice is give it a week. If we go to North Carolina and beat them, then this will all look very different. If we lose, then this loss becomes even worse.

I also wouldn't worry about the media. Media loves narratives, and one of the best narratives is the redemption story. Guarantee that if we win that game, prime time on ABC, the talk will be about how the team pulled together, circled the wagons, mental fortitude, blah blah. The classic redemption arc that media types love.

The data indicates our Canes are very likely going to lose by 14-21+.

 

[RightSaidFred]

The data indicates our Canes are very likely going to lose by 14-21+.

We might. We have the talent to match up with them though. I'm hopeful that we come out with an angry focus, dialed in and ready to give it everything.

And if I'm Mario/Rad, I'm slipping the kids some vitamin T this week, I'm deflating balls, I'm stealing signs... they need to do whatever is in their power to win this game at all costs on Saturday.

 

[Dwinstitles]

Dwin....it wasn't once in a lifetime...I've been ringing this bell for a while...

the refs just outright exposed their thumbs on the scales for all to see.

and they'll just keep doing it and the talking heads will just say "that's the game, play better, coach better..."

I have never seen refs that bad I never concentrate on them but holy fk everything was wrong everything

 

[Empirical Cane]

Like I said to the other guy, it's possible to be negligent and unlucky at the same time. In fact that's exactly the situation we had. He should have taken a knee, that's not in dispute. He had a choice between a guaranteed win or rolling the dice with a 99.995% chance of winning, and he chose the second option to get Chaney 100 yards. We got the unlucky roll. It's his fault. Nobody's disputing that. Just pointing out that it's incredibly unfortunate.

Chaney's fumble didn't lose the game for Miami, it's just the event getting all the focus.

It was but one of several referee crafted outcomes that ultimately tilted the score in GT's favor.

 

[Empirical Cane]

We might. We have the talent to match up with them though. I'm hopeful that we come out with an angry focus, dialed in and ready to give it everything.

And if I'm Mario/Rad, I'm slipping the kids some vitamin T this week, I'm deflating balls, I'm stealing signs... they need to do whatever is in their power to win this game at all costs on Saturday.

Do we have the ability to remove ACC officiating crew? If not, KC Chiefs coukd take field wearing Canes unis and it isn't going to matter friend.

The outcome has been predeterminded.

 

[RightSaidFred]

Chaney's fumble didn't lose the game for Miami, it's just the event getting all the focus.

It was but one of several referee crafted outcomes that ultimately tilted the score in GT's favor.

The refs jobbed us big time. Time to get us the **** out of the ACC. This ******* conference, man.

 

[Empirical Cane]

I have never seen refs that bad I never concentrate on them but holy fk everything was wrong everything

Start to finish, I am convinced an objective analysis would find a very troubling bias, not incompetence, by the officiating crew from last night.

Again, it was all sour grapes and tin foil hats until Donaghy was caught. Then all of a sudden people came out of the woodwork to shout, "see, I knew it!"

It has been right in front of us since forever and nothing is done about it. Not a peep.

You know this is headed for Message Board Geniuses...

They can't handle this kind of citizen journalism. This goes too deep, too far....

 

[Dwinstitles]

Start to finish, I am convinced an objective analysis would find a very troubling bias, not incompetence, by the officiating crew from last night.

Again, it was all sour grapes and tin foil hats until Donaghy was caught. Then all of a sudden people came out of the woodwork to shout, "see, I knew it!"

It has been right in front of us since forever and nothing is done about it. Not a peep.

You know this is headed for Message Board Geniuses...

They can't handle this kind of citizen journalism. This goes too deep, too far....

lol

 

[nycane]

First, we should have taken a knee. Let me get that said first and foremost. And look I get the doom and gloom. I get where people's minds are at right now because I'm ****ed off too. I haven't been this shook about a Miami game since Terry Porter's flag. It's like being punched in the gut and stabbed in the back at the same time. It ******* sucks.

But all that said, I feel like it's important to be reminded that sometimes dumb luck just plays a factor. Human beings are really bad at understanding probabilities and randomness, it's just how we're wired. Random **** happens and we try to put some kind of reasoning and meaning behind it, it's just human nature to all of us.

But the fact is the odds of having what happened yesterday are astronomically low. Even with the corching. 999/1000 times this doesn't happen. So many things have to go horribly wrong in exactly the right sequence for what happened, it's difficult to wrap your mind around. You'll most likely never see anything like it ever again in your life.

Don Chaney had 132 career carries at UM and before that one, he had never fumbled the ball. That's 1/132 odds, to start us off. Then, they recover. That's 50/50 odds. So the odds of Chaney fumbling and the other team recovering are now 1/264. (1/132 * 1/2). Then there's the last minute drive GA Tech had to win the game. According to ESPN stats, teams with the ball with that much time remaining are successful 9.7% of the time. We'll say 10% to make it easy. Now our odds are at 1/2640.

So we could run the exact same sequence over and over.... end games by handing the ball to Chaney instead of kneeling the ball, and we'd likely only see the same result once every 2640 games. That means we could do the same thing every single game, and what we saw happen would only happen once every 250 years or so.

It's a corching blunder for sure. I'm not discounting that. But I feel like it's important to remember that sometimes dumb bad luck just is what it is. What happened to us is equivalent to getting hit by a bus at the same time as being struck by lightning and having a piano fall on our heads at the same time. It's ****ed up but you'll probably never see it again as long as you live.

We come out of this on the other side, and we still have a good team. We have a team with enough talent and good enough schemes to beat anyone on our schedule. As a fan, all I can do is hope that they show up in North Carolina dialed in and with something to prove.

t was astronomically low. Refs have been ******** us for years. there was no fumble.

 

[westcoastcanes]

That's the point, let's say the odds of winning if you take a knee are 100%. The odds of winning handing the ball to Chaney are 99.995%. The better choice was obviously to take a knee, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it's incredibly unlucky that we lost the game, even with the bad decision.

I get the spirit of your post, but this isn’t even the first time this scenario has happened under Mario’s watch. It is seemingly not as rare as you are painting it, when you have a guy with reputation of “will lose you a game or two a year with his game day coaching” at the helm.

 

[Empirical Cane]

From a momentum context, this loss sets Miami back years. It sets Mario's reputation back years, to the point it now defines him as a professional until he wins a national title.

If/when the wheels come of the wagon for this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see any assistant who has options leave for any role other than Miami because these kind of defeats take on a life of their own and they don't want this stink on their resume. Remember "Clemsoning" or "Pull a Clemson", Miami has now secured their place in infamy for end of game bufoonery.

Life will and must go on, but the reputational damage to our Canes is likely going to be massive and far reaching.

as i predicted...

 

[RightSaidFred]

t was astronomically low. Refs have been ******** us for years. there was no fumble.

Yes they have. Didn't we go a whole season with them not calling a single holding penalty against any team we were playing? This game was one of the most blatent but they've been ******** us nonstop for a long time.

Remember when we returned the kickoff against Duke to win the game a number of years back and the ACC suspended and fired that whole officiating crew? Yeah they won't be doing that here.

I've maintained that we need to GTFO of the ACC for years, it's a garbage conference and as much as Shalala/Frenk WANT us to be a cultural fit with them, we're the farthest from it, which is why they treat us like they do. They look at us and see a bunch of thugs, and treat us that way. We need to join a conference that looks at us like a football team, nothing else.

 

[nycane]

Yes they have. Didn't we go a whole season with them not calling a single holding penalty against any team we were playing? This game was one of the most blatent but they've been ******** us nonstop for a long time.

Remember when we returned the kickoff against Duke to win the game a number of years back and the ACC suspended and fired that whole officiating crew? Yeah they won't be doing that here.

I've maintained that we need to GTFO of the ACC for years, it's a garbage conference and as much as Shalala/Frenk WANT us to be a cultural fit with them, we're the farthest from it, which is why they treat us like they do. They look at us and see a bunch of thugs, and treat us that way. We need to join a conference that looks at us like a football team, nothing else.

we should demand this crew NEVER appear at another miami game.
I knew it was a problem when a DB swung at Jacoby, nothing was called, then next play the guy was holding Jacoby and they called holding on us.

 

[RightSaidFred]

we should demand this crew NEVER appear at another miami game.
I knew it was a problem when a DB swung at Jacoby, nothing was called, then next play the guy was holding Jacoby and they called holding on us.

I've been trying to find out their names just to see if they're a bunch of FSU or UF grads. So far no luck. But yeah, the ACC refs have always had a bad bias against us but last night was another level. The worst, besides the "fumble" (which I agree was not a fumble), was the touchdown that was called back for holding, when there was obviously NO holding on that play. Then we get held nearly every down and never get the call in our favor.

We just need to GTFO. I know Richt complained to the ACC and even sent them film every week, and they never did ****.

 

[AtrainCane]

Ovee the past 10 years, Miami has had "program worst ever":

- Clemson bukkake
- K State bukkake
- FIU bukkake
- MTSU bukkake
- LA Tech bukkake
- UNC still running for 10,000 yds and 50 TDs bukkake
- FSU scoring 8,000 pts bukkake
- Duke bukkake
- GT, who lost to Bowling Green, bukkake

At some point, it isn't dumb luck.

Miami just loves bukkake.

Did all those events happen after 2008?

 

[nycane]

I've been trying to find out their names just to see if they're a bunch of FSU or UF grads. So far no luck. But yeah, the ACC refs have always had a bad bias against us but last night was another level. The worst, besides the "fumble" (which I agree was not a fumble), was the touchdown that was called back for holding, when there was obviously NO holding on that play. Then we get held nearly every down and never get the call in our favor.

We just need to GTFO. I know Richt complained to the ACC and even sent them film every week, and they never did ****.

they got their first d after they called a late hit on 3rd down after Francis was chop blocked from behind.