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Dumb Luck

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No_Fly_Zone said:
The fact that a low probability event occurs is not good or bad luck. Especially when low probability events occur at higher than expected rates to the same program/individuals. Over and over again. When that happens, you're not "unlucky." You just ******* suck.
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mcnaire2004 said:
You can also be an apologist trying to temper feelings toward the worst corching we've ever seen.
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I'm anything but an apologist. In fact, I was put in Purgatory for 6 months by @No_Fly_Zone over the summer for being a "mope" and now look at the reversal.

What I am is more even-keeled than most of you. You guys were too high in the summer and you're too low now. I'm trying to bring everyone back to reality.

Everything I said in my OP about the odds are just logic, there's no disputing the core message. It's also just a fact that this was only ONE game, we're 4-1, and we still have everything in the world to play for. None of our goals are out of reach.

It was a bad loss. A really bad loss. As bad as I've ever seen and as bad as we'll ever see again in our lifetimes. But it WAS only ONE loss.

Have perspective.
 
RightSaidFred said:
I'm anything but an apologist. In fact, I was put in Purgatory for 6 months by @No_Fly_Zone over the summer for being a "mope" and now look at the reversal.

What I am is more even-keeled than most of you. You guys were too high in the summer and you're too low now. I'm trying to bring everyone back to reality.

Everything I said in my OP about the odds are just logic, there's no disputing the core message. It's also just a fact that this was only ONE game, we're 4-1, and we still have everything in the world to play for. None of our goals are out of reach.

It was a bad loss. A really bad loss. As bad as I've ever seen and as bad as we'll ever see again in our lifetimes. But it WAS only ONE loss.

Have perspective.
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You don't even know the definition of luck. Why should I believe anything else that you say?
 
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RightSaidFred said:
Like I said to the other guy, it's possible to be negligent and unlucky at the same time. In fact that's exactly the situation we had. He should have taken a knee, that's not in dispute. He had a choice between a guaranteed win or rolling the dice with a 99.995% chance of winning, and he chose the second option to get Chaney 100 yards. We got the unlucky roll. It's his fault. Nobody's disputing that. Just pointing out that it's incredibly unfortunate.
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You realize that Mario has been "unlucky" in this scenario twice in his HC career? When you make bad "low probability" events happen with such frequency, you aren't unlucky. You're utilizing poor decision-making to make those bad things happen with more frequency.

Luck is a loser's word.
 
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RightSaidFred said:
I'm anything but an apologist. In fact, I was put in Purgatory for 6 months by @No_Fly_Zone over the summer for being a "mope" and now look at the reversal.

What I am is more even-keeled than most of you. You guys were too high in the summer and you're too low now. I'm trying to bring everyone back to reality.

Everything I said in my OP about the odds are just logic, there's no disputing the core message. It's also just a fact that this was only ONE game, we're 4-1, and we still have everything in the world to play for. None of our goals are out of reach.

It was a bad loss. A really bad loss. As bad as I've ever seen and as bad as we'll ever see again in our lifetimes. But it WAS only ONE loss.

Have perspective.
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Not for being a mope. For being a troll.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
You realize that Mario has been "unlucky" in this scenario twice in his HC career? When you make bad "low probability" events happen with such frequency, you aren't unlucky. You're utilizing poor decision-making to make those bad things happen with more frequency.

Luck is a loser's word.
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We're fans, we can't win or lose a game for them. I haven't heard Mario blame luck for the loss, and I imagine he never would because he likes to control everything and that personality type has an especially hard time understanding the role of chance.

Chance plays a role in all sports, man.
 
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RightSaidFred said:
We're fans, we can't win or lose a game for them. I haven't heard Mario blame luck for the loss, and I imagine he never would because he likes to control everything and that personality type has an especially hard time understanding the role of chance.

Chance plays a role in all sports, man.
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It's an oblong-shaped ball. Bounces in all sorts of weird directions. So, yes, chance plays a role. 100%.

But, where consequences are completely avoidable and decisions are made that actually take winning from being certain to being uncertain, that is not chance. That is incompetence.
 
RightSaidFred said:
I'm anything but an apologist. In fact, I was put in Purgatory for 6 months by @No_Fly_Zone over the summer for being a "mope" and now look at the reversal.

What I am is more even-keeled than most of you. You guys were too high in the summer and you're too low now. I'm trying to bring everyone back to reality.

Everything I said in my OP about the odds are just logic, there's no disputing the core message. It's also just a fact that this was only ONE game, we're 4-1, and we still have everything in the world to play for. None of our goals are out of reach.

It was a bad loss. A really bad loss. As bad as I've ever seen and as bad as we'll ever see again in our lifetimes. But it WAS only ONE loss.

Have perspective.
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From a momentum context, this loss sets Miami back years. It sets Mario's reputation back years, to the point it now defines him as a professional until he wins a national title.

If/when the wheels come of the wagon for this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see any assistant who has options leave for any role other than Miami because these kind of defeats take on a life of their own and they don't want this stink on their resume. Remember "Clemsoning" or "Pull a Clemson", Miami has now secured their place in infamy for end of game bufoonery.

Life will and must go on, but the reputational damage to our Canes is likely going to be massive and far reaching.
 
No_Fly_Zone said:
Not for being a mope. For being a troll.
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It's all water under the bridge now, but I was being negative on our recruiting class. Still am. That's what ****ed everyone off. You guys were too high on the talent acquisition stuff, just like you're too low on the coaching staff and team right now. We weren't "back" or on our way to being "back" this summer, and the sky isn't falling today.
 
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Thats a once in a lifetime thing we just saw man everything on the planet went against us even the stripes our own coaches and our own players all at the same time.
 
RightSaidFred said:
It's all water under the bridge now, but I was being negative on our recruiting class. Still am. That's what ****ed everyone off. You guys were too high on the talent acquisition stuff, just like you're too low on the coaching staff and team right now. We weren't "back" or on our way to being "back" this summer, and the sky isn't falling today.
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No. You were creating a narrative that Mario's classes all needed to be "top 5" or bust. That way you could drag even a top 7 class as "below expectations".

If it's water under the bridge, don't bring it up. But, if you must bring it up, then get the facts right.
 
Empirical Cane said:
From a momentum context, this loss sets Miami back years. It sets Mario's reputation back years, to the point it now defines him as a professional until he wins a national title.

If/when the wheels come of the wagon for this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see any assistant who has options leave for any role other than Miami because these kind of defeats take on a life of their own. Remember "Clemsoning" or "Pull a Clemson", Miami has now secured their place in infamy for end of game bufoonery.

Life will and must go on, but the reputational damage to our Canes is likely going to be massive and far reaching.
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My advice is give it a week. If we go to North Carolina and beat them, then this will all look very different. If we lose, then this loss becomes even worse.

I also wouldn't worry about the media. Media loves narratives, and one of the best narratives is the redemption story. Guarantee that if we win that game, prime time on ABC, the talk will be about how the team pulled together, circled the wagons, mental fortitude, blah blah. The classic redemption arc that media types love.
 
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