This is proof that you don’t understand what we are saying. It doesn’t matter how far the ball gets away from the catcher because an aggressive baserunning philosophy doesn’t allow you to wait that long to find out. You go BEFORE it hits the dirt. Before.
I don't know if you are just being hard headed. Not every runner capable of doingwhat your saying and getting to 2nd safely. They can do it, but they'll be thrown out. if you think about, it makes no sense.
So, a runner that is going to steal 2nd is going to get a jump on the pitchers delivery. To the contrary, what you are describing is "seeing the ball down" which occurs after the ball has crossed home plate and with a good secondary lead. So, tell me how the average Joe runner is going to be safe at 2nd in scenario #2 when he can't steal a base in scenario #1 where the runner is much closer to 2nd base on a full sprint than taking off after a secondary lead when the ball crosses home plate?
Simply put. Let me take off on a Sprint to 2nd when the pitcher lifts his leg while you do a shuffle secondary lead. Whose going to get to the bag first? Me. Everytime!!!
So, if a guy can't steal bases in normal conditions, he can't/shouldn't try to take 2nd on a pitch in the dirt without seeing how far the ball is away from the catcher. Even worse is what you describe as taking off before the ball hits the dirt wgich is impossible unless your straight stealing. In hundredths of a second the ball crosses the plate and the runner some how has time to say oh it's going to be in the dirt so I'll run. NOT HUMANLY POSSIBLE. The ball has already hit the ground when the runner decides to go. And that is what I'm saying. Only the fast guys should go when they see it initially hit the dirt. Everyone else needs to see where the ball winds up. Gates is not that guy. Maybe the coaches think he is, but he's not. Not fast enough. That play has to be made 100% and only the fast guys can guarantee that.
Sure you can send everyone when the ball hits the dirt. Most will be thrown out at 2nd when the ball gets even 5 feet away from the catcher. Fact is most baseball players are just average to below average when it comes to speed compared to other athletes. Skilled with the glove and the bat, but a true athlete excels in other sports that involve running and jumping.
For the record, back in college, Ibwas a guy who could steal bases. I had the greenlight to steal or take off on a pitch in the dirt. I played football in high school and could have played in college. At 6' 2", I could dunk a baskeball on 3 dribbles. I know what I'm talking about. Not everyone should do what you're saying. I don't care how aggressive you want to be. It's throwing outs away because the slower runners are less likely to take 2nd safely. Like I said in other posts, If what you're saying is applied to every runner, then why is that 80-90% of the time the runner doesn't go when the catcher blocks a ball in the dirt? I'm talking about Miami who is an aggressive running team. I'll save you the trouble by telling you it's because it's not worth the risk with slower runners.
It's just like a guy stealing 3rd with a pitcher that has a slow delivery to the plate. It's a base to be taken by your faster runners, but those average to slow guys are better off parking their *** at 2nd base.
