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Duke

Number1CanesFan said:
I played D-1 baseball. Ah, no. Only for certain dudes. Maybe Gates thinks he's that guy. I don't see it. If that were the case, he would have been safe. Even our announcers said Gates needed to make sure the ball got far enough away. So, they know Gates made a play that he shouldn't have.
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Gates runs in the 7.2-7.3 range, he isn’t too slow to be seeing it down. The kid made a good play behind the plate. It’s ok to get thrown out being aggressive every once in a while
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
Some inconsistency in your opinions here. Getting to third would've meant Duke would've only needed to make contact, vs get a base hit, against a nasty closer.
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What’s inconsistent? IIt was the 9th inning. You can’t take a chance with the game on the line. You can score from second on a hit. You have to be sure you can get there to go in that situation
 
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NC_Canes_11 said:
What’s inconsistent? IIt was the 9th inning. You can’t take a chance with the game on the line. You can score from second on a hit. You have to be sure you can get there to go in that situation
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So you can take a chance with the game not on the line? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You should make the right baseball play at all times.

You can score from 2nd on a hit, but you can score from 3rd on contact.

Lala made an absolutely spectacular play. He made a good play just to stop the ball from getting into the corner - and then to position himself for the throw, and make that throw? Wow. The Duke player is standing on third 90% of the time.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
So you can take a chance with the game not on the line? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You should make the right baseball play at all times.

You can score from 2nd on a hit, but you can score from 3rd on contact.

Lala made an absolutely spectacular play. He made a good play just to stop the ball from getting into the corner - and then to position himself for the throw, and make that throw? Wow. The Duke player is standing on third 90% of the time.
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Being aggressive in the middle innings is a whole lot different than trying to take 3rd in the 9th down 1. Not to mention trying to get into scoring position vs already being there and trying to take 3rd are very different. If he stays Duke has two chances to tie. If he gets thrown out you have two outs with only a guy at first. It isn’t worth the risk. And contact only doesn’t score you from 3rd when the infield is drawn in
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Being aggressive in the middle innings is a whole lot different than trying to take 3rd in the 9th down 1. Not to mention trying to get into scoring position vs already being there and trying to take 3rd are very different. If he stays Duke has two chances to tie. If he gets thrown out you have two outs with only a guy at first. It isn’t worth the risk. And contact only doesn’t score you from 3rd when the infield is drawn in
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These are MLB stats, but I would imagine they are similar for NCAA.

Odds of scoring 1 run would've been 23% pts higher had he been successful, and 28% pts lower after he failed. If all you care about is tying the game, then you go if you have at least a ~55% chance of making it, which he clearly did.

Run Expectancy Matrix, 1950-2015

www.tangotiger.net
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
These are MLB stats, but I would imagine they are similar for NCAA.

Odds of scoring 1 run would've been 23% pts higher had he been successful, and 28% pts lower after he failed. If all you care about is tying the game, then you go if you have at least a ~55% chance of making it, which he clearly did.

Run Expectancy Matrix, 1950-2015

www.tangotiger.net
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You can't just disregard scoring additional runs, of course, but the overall point stands: it's not a situation where you ONLY go if you're sure. You go if you have a pretty good shot, and he definitely had a pretty good shot, given how great a play Lala had to make to get him by 1 foot.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
You can't just disregard scoring additional runs, of course, but the overall point stands: it's not a situation where you ONLY go if you're sure. You go if you have a pretty good shot, and he definitely had a pretty good shot, given how great a play Lala had to make to get him by 1 foot.
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I get what you’re saying and what the MLB numbers say. Assuming they are similar in college, IMO it’s still not worth it in that situation. Now if it had been a double I could stomach that a little easier with a guy left on 2nd. I love being aggressive on the base paths in most situations but they ran themselves outta that ballgame. Even though you are correct it was a really great throw from Lala and more times than not he’s probably safe.
 
Run environment changes each year slightly, but this chart is going to be as good as you'll see for the college game (which has such a higher run environment than MLB I had to create my own linear weights for predictive formulas).

85686

Based purely on math, it was a poor decision to go for 3B due to the gain being 21% but the drop being 34% of run expectancy. I think you can defend the gamble though if you believe the probability of actually being thrown out is less than the probability gained by getting there.
 
Lance Roffers said:
Run environment changes each year slightly, but this chart is going to be as good as you'll see for the college game (which has such a higher run environment than MLB I had to create my own linear weights for predictive formulas).

View attachment 85686
Based purely on math, it was a poor decision to go for 3B due to the gain being 21% but the drop being 34% of run expectancy. I think you can defend the gamble though if you believe the probability of actually being thrown out is less than the probability gained by getting there.
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This is crazy. If it’s not too much to put up here what formulas did you use to create that
 
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**** we had a game tonight? For anyone who gives a **** the Sick Ducks are 2-0 in our 16” softball league mother****as
 
Number1CanesFan said:
No.!!! If that were the case then every runner would try to advance when the catcher blocks a ball in the dirt. Obviously, that's not the case. So, you are incorrect.
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Runners who are taught well will absolutely try to go on every pitch in the dirt because they break before it even hits the dirt. You obviously played for a coach who didn’t emphasize baserunning.
 
Number1CanesFan said:
Guys that steal bases will see a pitch is going to be in the dirt. They have the speed to take a base because the catcher is going to block the ball 9/10 times. They are fast enough to take the base before the catcher can retrieve the ball and throw. Everyone else must see the ball get far enough away from the catcher. It's not a steal. It's advancing on a wild pitch. Gates was not stealing. He was trying to make a play that Lala, Jenkins or Zamora would make. He's not that dude. Needs to stay in his lane.
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This is proof that you don’t understand what we are saying. It doesn’t matter how far the ball gets away from the catcher because an aggressive baserunning philosophy doesn’t allow you to wait that long to find out. You go BEFORE it hits the dirt. Before.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
Run environment changes each year slightly, but this chart is going to be as good as you'll see for the college game (which has such a higher run environment than MLB I had to create my own linear weights for predictive formulas).

View attachment 85686
Based purely on math, it was a poor decision to go for 3B due to the gain being 21% but the drop being 34% of run expectancy. I think you can defend the gamble though if you believe the probability of actually being thrown out is less than the probability gained by getting there.
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I'm sure that's what was running through everyone's mind during the play.
 
If it's true that Gil isn't 100% with a bum hand and a bad eye, then why's he still hitting in the 5 hole bros?

Lala CF
Vilar 2B
Zamora SS
Del RF
Toral 1B
Gil 3B
Gates DH
Amditis C
Crosbie LF
 
Completely agree
Move Toral up..he’s been on a tear
Great to have Zamora back last night too
 
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