Awsi Dooger
Junior
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 2,662
She's down like 2 or 3 pts in a district that Hillary won by 20pts. In typical Shalala fashion she'll probably give her campaign manager a contract extension by Sunday.
Mason-Dixon is a good pollster in statewide races but shakier elsewhere. Tends to err right. Questionable poll because it puts Gillum and Nelson only up 4 points apiece in FL-27. If that is true they will be drubbed statewide, and there in no indication of that. I would be much more confident in the accuracy of the Salazar edge if it coincided with let's say a Gillum/Nelson advantage of 8-12 in the same poll.
Shalala was immediately the elephant in the room once she entered the primary. Rodriguez was the early Democratic frontrunner last year but he imploded with comments that sounded more like a Republican. That opened the door for Shalala, and Rodriguez bailed out of the race in spring as soon as Shalala entered. Then Richardson the former Herald employee had lots of late momentum from the Gillum wing but he was simply too late and underfunded. The primary was closer than expected and Richardson probably would have won with an earlier start.
This is my district. I give Shalala credit for relentless contact. Without exaggeration, her campaign has contacted me more than all previous Democratic campaigns combined since I returned to Miami in late 2008 and registered Democratic. I have yet to hear from Nelson or Gillum, for example. This is absolutely the opposite of when I lived in Clark County, NV. Democrats dominated the contacts and ground game there, thanks to Harry Reid fortifying the operations in preparation for a troublesome midterm race at the end of his career. He prevailed narrowly over wingnut Sharron Angle.
My cell phone number was not on file with my voter registration. Yet Shalala's campaign contacted me via cell phone. I'm wondering if she got it from my Canes season ticket holder information. Now other Democrats have contacted me via that number, including Annette Taddeo.
Republican donors were not going to fund this race until polling tightened. Salazar is pushing her comparative youth and vitality in commercials, like wandering around in a beach, and paddling a kayak, or whatever that is. No question the candidate to candidate realities make this race competitive, when otherwise it would not have been. Shalala does not speak Spanish and had to wear an earpiece in the recent debate translated for Spanish television.
I have been cleaning up on Predictit, the political wagering site. Lots of right wingers there who predictably have no clue what they are doing, like shoving Dr. Ford to underdog price to actually testify before the senate. They applied their own fear and frailties to her. This race was Shalala 90 cent favorite, which was too darn high and not representative of all the complicated variables of the district. Now it has dropped to 60 cents.
I wager on Republicans 70% of the time, despite my partisanship, since the value is typically with that side. If Shalala is pushed to underdog here there could be some value on the Democrat. Last year at about this time Jose Felix Diaz led the local polling against Taddeo, but lost by 4 points. Normally the side with the benefit of the severe national slant wins the hefty majority of the tight races.