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Does Vegas know something we don’t ?

TemplarCane said:
Pound the rock with who?

Chaney - OUT
Citizen - OUT
Knighton - QUESTIONABLE
Parrish - QUESTIONABLE

Thad going to get 25 carries? Stanley, the late transfer? Maybe Terrell Walden Jr can chip in.
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I'd rather see Thad get 30 carries and Stanley get 15, than to see us try to force the passing game to look competent against a team who has been terrible at defending the run.
 
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Astcloud11 said:
I'd rather see Thad get 30 carries and Stanley get 15, than to see us try to force the passing game to look competent against a team who has been terrible at defending the run.
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Oh, I agree. I just hope we don’t get burned quickly and end up playing catch-up all game.
 
People struggle to see the worst possible outcomes because our brains are somewhat designed for immediate survival and gratification.

Again, I'm not saying definitively Canes go winless from here on out, but even the thought of it is hard for some to wrap their brains around.

Put another way, the worst case outcome (winless) is far easier to achieve than best case (run the table).

So, what do the chicken bones tell us TODAY?

A lean closer to worst case outcome than best case outcome. Probably another 4-5 losses.

NOW, different performance vs UNC could/would change that outlook, but there is nothing to indicate it will.

Let's take a quasi "deeper dive" on a matter that might (ok might not be) relevant.

2017 Mario (co-OC all season) named HC of Ducks end of season
25 Nov (Taggert coach) W
Ducks 69 - Oregon St 10
16 Dec (Mario HC LV Bowl) L
Ducks 28 - Boise St 38

2018 Mario HC Ducks
27 Oct L
Ducks 15 - Arizona 44
3 Nov W
Ducks 42 - UCLA 21
10 Nov L
Ducks 25 - Utah 32
17 Nov W
Ducks 31 - Arizona St 29

2019 Mario HC
31 Aug L
Ducks 21 - War **** Eagle! 27
7 Sep
Ducks 77 - Nevada 6
****Concerning for MTSU loss because they were supposed to beat Nevada after a close loss to Auburn week before****
23 Nov L
Ducks 28 - Arizona State 31
****big upset loss****
30 Nov W
Ducks 24 - Oregon St 10

2020 Fuqtard COVID year...but still terrible record of 4-3
27 Nov L
Ducks 38 - Oregon St 41
***big upset loss***
5 Dec L
Ducks 17 - Cal 21
***another big upset loss***
2 Jan L
Ducks 17 - Iowa St 34

2021 Mario HC
2 Oct L
Ducks 24 - Stanford 31
****big upset loss****
20 Nov L
Ducks 7 - Utah 38
****big upset loss****
27 Nov W
Ducks 38 - Oregon St 29
3 Dec L
Ducks 10 - Utah 38
***maybe not surprising, but to some/most big upset loss with 3 weeks to prepare for the same team****


So what thematically, given a weaker Miami team than the previous Duck squads, leads us to believe a probable W against UNC on Saturday??
 
LawyerCane said:
For some unknown reason the Canes mystique continues despite the fact that in reality it’s been gone since 2004. How many times (pre Clemson arrival) have the odds makers listed Miami as the favorite to win the ACC, and how many times have those odds makers listed Miami as the favorite to win the Coastal, but how many times have we done either of these things? As good as we once were, People can’t seem to believe that we’re not still ready to again come to the front. I’m an old fart, Miami grad in 1971, so I first have lived through the championship years. Attended all but one (1983) championship game, and saw Coach MC play in his championship games. But those teams are a thing of history such that despite the utter humiliation we witnessed at the hands of MTSU, the odds makers still have to believe that deep inside Miami is better than that fiasco and like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, Miami will rise again. I do hope Mario will bring us back, and if he does, he will always be known for two things, that he brought us back to being a National Champion, but in doing so, it was under his tenure that Miami suffered the most humiliating loss in the school’s history. Go Canes!
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I don’t think bookies are the sentimental type. They’ve got money on the line.
But I agree that this game’s odds are a bit baffling.
 
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This is similar to Texas A&M going into their game against us. You'd be a fool to think Texas A&M wasn't going to play better at home after losing to App state the week before.

The same applies with us for this game. We're not going to see the same lackadaisical UM effort that showed up against MTSU. We'll look better and be more engaged.

Quite frankly we should win this game. You never know with the canes though lol
 
Marcelo2988 said:
This is similar to Texas A&M going into their game against us. You'd be a fool to think Texas A&M wasn't going to play better at home after losing to App state the week before.

The same applies with us for this game. We're not going to see the same lackadaisical UM effort that showed up against MTSU. We'll look better and be more engaged.

Quite frankly we should win this game. You never know with the canes though lol
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Your assuming equal coaching, talent, and motivation between the two squads.

Corching - call it a push
Talent - advantage AtM
Motivation - advantage-ish AtM
 
JgDaCane said:
I’ve been betting games for years. Public perception is something I always go off of & normally profitable. Fade public perception. Which actually & I can’t believe I’m saying this makes me think we win this game. I think UNC will take a lopsided amount of action.
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From action network
 

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Home team is usually -3 when teams considered even.

North Carolina laid 63 on Appalachian State, but gave up 61 .... only beat Georgia State by a touchdown (and gave up 28 points) ... lost by 13 to a Notre Dame team that was upset at Marshall ... and just rolled a bad Virginia Tech squad.

Schizophrenic as the Canes are, the Tar Heels are a bit of a conundrum in their own right.
 
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Empirical Cane said:
Your assuming equal coaching, talent, and motivation between the two squads.

Corching - call it a push
Talent - advantage AtM
Motivation - advantage-ish AtM
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Oh I for sure expected an L for that game. It just takes using simple logic.

Texas A&M is more talented than us and they were playing at home coming off a bad loss.

My point is that UM isn't going to come out again with the same awful effort they showed against MTSU (at least I hope not lol).

We'll see a more engaged team playing with a lot more energy. Couple that with the fact we have more talent than them on paper and we're playing at home and voila....Vegas has us favored by 4 points
 
After this week most of the board is going to complain and talk about previous posts about how they thought Thad was our best back and how the coaches should all be fired for not listening to them.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
MTSU was a nightmare, but trust me, if Mario Cristobal wins the ACC here, or god forbid a national championship, nobody will ever say a word about MTSU, except for when other schools hire new coaches and they suffer humiliating losses, it'll be talked about like the Saban/LA Monroe game.
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If they can salvage the season the MTSU loss won’t really matter as much because you’re only as good as your most recent win. If they can’t somehow manage to turn the year around it will go down as the worst loss in the modern era. At least FIU was close and technically a road game. We got mauled at home by Middle Tennessee
 
DTP said:
If they can salvage the season the MTSU loss won’t really matter as much because you’re only as good as your most recent win. If they can’t somehow manage to turn the year around it will go down as the worst loss in the modern era. At least FIU was close and technically a road game. We got mauled at home by Middle Tennessee
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There is no "at least" with that FIU loss. It was brutal. Both losses are about in the same tier. But if Mario turns it around it is more forgivable.

Let's hope that by the end of the year, or in future years we point at the loss and laugh at it because we're in a good place. I don't want it to be like it was with Manny and be able to point at it years later and say we knew he sucked back in year 1.
 
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TheProf said:
There is no "at least" with that FIU loss. It was brutal. Both losses are about in the same tier. But if Mario turns it around it is more forgivable.

Let's hope that by the end of the year, or in future years we point at the loss and laugh at it because we're in a good place. I don't want it to be like it was with Manny and be able to point at it years later and say we knew he sucked back in year 1.
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When you’re comparing the two worst losses in recent program history there’s really no positive spin.
 
Astcloud11 said:
I'd rather see Thad get 30 carries and Stanley get 15, than to see us try to force the passing game to look competent against a team who has been terrible at defending the run.
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Zone read with Jacurri, especially at the goal line
 
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TheProf said:
There is no "at least" with that FIU loss. It was brutal. Both losses are about in the same tier. But if Mario turns it around it is more forgivable.

Let's hope that by the end of the year, or in future years we point at the loss and laugh at it because we're in a good place. I don't want it to be like it was with Manny and be able to point at it years later and say we knew he sucked back in year 1.
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MTSU is worse..that was a 6-7 UM team..This was a Ranked and lost at home..so yea this might be the worse lose in UM history
 
DTP said:
When you’re comparing the two worst losses in recent program history there’s really no positive spin.
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Loss wise no but we’re in what appears to be a better outlook with regard to available resources and Mario’s ability to recruit at a higher level.
 
Need to see a Canes team that wants to fight. Even if it means a few 15-yard penalties.

Too many lethargic efforts from this team, this year, last year, last decade.
 
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