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Degenerate Week 1 & Natty/Futures Odds

OrangeBowlMagic said:
You’re doing great, honey.
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*Watch football
 
Week 1 SMU -2.5 at FSU - I think FSU is gonna be B.A.D.

For Miami, everything hinges on the lines…OL be serviceable compared to top 3 OL last year? DL not take too much of a step back?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
And lastly, our regular season wins line is 10.5 at normal juice (-110). I love the over. This is an 11-1 team, at worst. We’re not losing an ACC game.
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I can't see this

The man has lost games he shouldn't have lost his whole life. (On the other hand he has turned into a very underrated big game coach)…Why would we think that automatically stops this year. He's not a good SMALL game coach.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Right??

There are 10 conferences listed on DK.

Only 1 team in those 10 conferences is minus money to win their league.

Miami at -135.

Texas Tech is +100. They’re the closest.

We are the heaviest favorite to win our league out of any team in the country.

It has to happen.
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If we win it can we just toss the trophy in the Atlantic Ocean or something because part of me doesn’t want a trophy from this garbage league sitting next to a couple crystal balls…
 
skeeter said:
I can't see this

The man has lost games he shouldn't have lost his whole life. (On the other hand he has turned into a very underrated big game coach)…Why would we think that automatically stops this year. He's not a good SMALL game coach.
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Then you can get -110 for under 10.5. Free money.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Then you can get -110 for under 10.5. Free money.
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I'm not taking a side…Too much risk in the man doing what he has done his entire career of coaching. Plus I don't think Notre Dame is mission impossible although we are a deserved underdog.

10.5ev looks about right to me.
 
I’m surprised that Indiana has title odds that good. I think their qb is a massive massive downgrade. And losing ponds is a big deal.

Call me crazy but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alberto at gtech have a better year than the tcu transfer
 
305407cane said:
I’m surprised that Indiana has title odds that good. I think their qb is a massive massive downgrade. And losing ponds is a big deal.

Call me crazy but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alberto at gtech have a better year than the tcu transfer
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Indiana did sort of reload on offense. And because that LT is so highly rated I am sure giving benefit of the doubt.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve started to see some Week 1 lines drop and I didn’t see a thread for this anywhere else, so for all you fellow degenerates, let’s dive into some Sportsbook donations

Week 1 game @ Stanford opened at DK at -21.5. Thoughts? At first glance, it seems just a touch high. I think we’re going to win easily, Stanford has about 3 kids on their whole team who would do more than hold water here. But the cross-country trip, Week 1, remember Stanford does have a Week 0 game so they’ll have played. I can see this being something like a 37-10 game late and you’re sweating a backdoor cover.

Also to win the natty, we now have the 7th best odds on DK:

Taint +650
ND +700
Indiana +750
Texas +750
Oregon +800
UGA +1000
Miami +1500
LSU +1600
A&M +1800
Texas tech +2000

We are also -135 to win the ACC, which is crazy. This has to be the year we finally win this pile of **** league. Enough is enough.

Miami -135
SMU +700
Louisville +800
Clemson +1400 (this is so crazy)
UVA +1500
Pitt +1600
NC State +2200
VT +2800
GT +3500
FSU +3500 (LOL - we have more than double the chance to win the natty as they do to win the ACC)

Mensah is +1200 to win the Heisman:

Carr +750
Arch +750
Sayin +1000
Moore +1000
Chambliss +1100
Hoover +1200
Mensah +1200
JJ Smith +1300
Stockton +1800
Leavitt +2000
One of note, Malachi Toney is +4000. Has the 2nd best odds of all non-QBs.

And lastly, our regular season wins line is 10.5 at normal juice (-110). I love the over. This is an 11-1 team, at worst. We’re not losing an ACC game. IDGAF. I also like over 11.5 at +550. There’s a good chance that comes down to the ND game, and you’re not getting +550 on Miami moneyline that day in November.

Anything stick out to yall or anything else you wanna see?
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A few things:
1. Are there are odds on Sorsby?
2. If so, how much did Sorsby put down on himself?
3. I swear on my mother, based on the title of this thread, I thought this was gonna be about Sorsby - guess it kind of is now, lol
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Right??

There are 10 conferences listed on DK.

Only 1 team in those 10 conferences is minus money to win their league.

Miami at -135.

Texas Tech is +100. They’re the closest.

We are the heaviest favorite to win our league out of any team in the country.

It has to happen.
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I believe Texas tech was at the minus a few weeks ago before everything broke with sorsby
 
DrewZ2 said:
Week 1 SMU -2.5 at FSU - I think FSU is gonna be B.A.D.

For Miami, everything hinges on the lines…OL be serviceable compared to top 3 OL last year? DL not take too much of a step back?
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I think I saw FSU win total over under 6 1/2. I’m definitely thinking they have eight losses on that schedule maybe nine.
 
skeeter said:
I can't see this

The man has lost games he shouldn't have lost his whole life. (On the other hand he has turned into a very underrated big game coach)…Why would we think that automatically stops this year. He's not a good SMALL game coach.
Click to expand...
I’m really not the type of guy to defend some of Mario’s 2025 shortcomings, but it took 5 INT’s from Carson Beck to drop that Louisville game we still almost won. Louisville finished 9-4 with wins over two CFP opponents and 3/4 losses by single digits. It was pretty irritating to hear the talking heads at ESPN **** talk our “2 horrible no good very bad losses” at the end of the regular season. Losing is never good, but when talking playoffs, yes you sorta have to nitpick how the teams won/lost if there are a few teams on the bubble. And when your QB plays the worst game of his entire life, I don’t know how much of that loss falls on Mario’s shoulders.

Now onto SMU. Yes, we played like dog**** and should have won by 2-3 scores. Yes, Mario did not have the team prepared for this game. BUT also, I’m not the type of guy who blames officials for losses because I think we shouldn’t put ourselves in a position where a bad call costs us a game (See 2023 GT), but this SMU crew might have been the absolute worst I’ve ever seen. Several game changing calls went against us. Ultimately we lost in OT on the road to a team who was ranked in the preseason and a year removed from a CFP appearance. They also finished the season with 9 wins. In the “is this a good/bad loss” conversation, I don’t consider this the worst or most embarrassing kind.

And what did we do to every other regular season opponent not named Notre Dame? Because I’m pretty sure we beat almost everyone else by 2 scores or more. The 2 losses in 2025 were unfortunate, but not the kind of ACC clunkers we’ve seen in previous years. 2017 Pitt, 2018/2023 Georgia Tech, 2018 Duke, the list goes on and on. 2025 was a huge step in the right direction as far as showing up for every game and taking care of business.
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
The 2 losses in 2025 were unfortunate, but not the kind of ACC clunkers we’ve seen in previous years. 2017 Pitt, 2018/2023 Georgia Tech, 2018 Duke, the list goes on and on. 2025 was a huge step in the right direction as far as showing up for every game and taking care of business
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He has a history of "clunkers" dating back to Oregon… Ya hopefully he improves as he has in other aspects. And like I said he's a dangerous dog.
 
skeeter said:
I'm not taking a side…Too much risk in the man doing what he has done his entire career of coaching. Plus I don't think Notre Dame is mission impossible although we are a deserved underdog.

10.5ev looks about right to me.
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I know it’s not popular but I took U10.5. I’ll be super impressed if they go over, I think they have the talent and schedule to do it….i just think they slip up somewhere they shouldn’t, and there are a few spots I have my eye on

In my mind it’s a win win for me. They go over that means they’re probably a top 4 seed, they go under it should still be a 10 win season and I win a little money….anything less than 10 would be due to injury or unacceptable
 
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