articles
Comments (35)
QB rankings for all 68 Power 4 college football teams
We've seen four weeks of football. How has that changed our opinions about the top quarterbacks.
1.
Spring ranking: 11th Total QBR: 93.9 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 63 | Total TDs: 15
When a QB has an amazing receiver at his disposal -- like, say, Malachi Toney or Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith -- it's hard to know what to do with his passing stats; do you discount them in some way because his job is easier than others'? But I try to make my job easy when I can: Even with Toney, Mensah ranks first among power conference QBs in completion rate (88.7%!), touchdowns (14), yards per dropback (11.0) and passing success rate* (68.7%). When you're No. 1 in that many key categories, you're No. 1 on this list. Miami spent a lot of money bringing Mensah to town, and he has thus far been worth twice as much.
* Success rate is the frequency with which an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.
Absolutely...they are rough and tough
This number feels like the second half of wake didn’t happen.
You originally brought up Sayin throwing it downfield more as the reason his completion percentage is lower. I showed you that Mensah is actually completing his 20+ yard throws at a much higher rate. Sayin has only attempted three more of them, so it's not like we're comparing a huge difference in volume. Then you switched from deep-ball production to aDOT.
That's fine. Let's look at that too.
Mensah: 88.7% completion 10/14 on 20+ yard throws (71.4%) 8.5 aDOT 11.4 yards per attempt
Sayin: 72.2% completion 9/17 on 20+ yard throws (52.9%) 11.6 aDOT 10.5 yards per attempt
Sayin is throwing it farther on average, but he's completing fewer of those deep shots, has a much lower overall completion percentage, and is averaging fewer yards per attempt.
That's the part I don't understand. If Sayin's higher aDOT is supposed to explain why his completion percentage is lower, then that's an accuracy issue. He chooses to throw it farther, but he isn't completing those throws at the same rate, and he's still producing fewer yards per attempt than Mensah.
Mensah's aDOT is lower, but his average pass is producing more yards. So what exactly is the advantage of Sayin's higher aDOT if it isn't translating into more production?
And aDOT isn't entirely a quarterback stat. Play calling affects it too. You could see that in the Wake game when Miami started calling a bunch of WR screens toward the end of the third quarter, which naturally brought Mensah's aDOT down.
He is the truth! Championship elite football QB.1.
Spring ranking: 11th Total QBR: 93.9 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 63 | Total TDs: 15
When a QB has an amazing receiver at his disposal -- like, say, Malachi Toney or Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith -- it's hard to know what to do with his passing stats; do you discount them in some way because his job is easier than others'? But I try to make my job easy when I can: Even with Toney, Mensah ranks first among power conference QBs in completion rate (88.7%!), touchdowns (14), yards per dropback (11.0) and passing success rate* (68.7%). When you're No. 1 in that many key categories, you're No. 1 on this list. Miami spent a lot of money bringing Mensah to town, and he has thus far been worth twice as much.
* Success rate is the frequency with which an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.
Mensah highest graded QB
Good summary, seriously, and admittedly I would have guessed that Sayin's YPA would have been at least equal to Mensah's, although Mensah's number is obviously bolstered by that Florida A&M game.
It is worth noting that in terms of pure production, Sayin's numbers are nearly identical and his interception was an end of game Hail Mary.
The other obvious difference in comparing the numbers is that say what you want about Ball State and Kent State, but both would dominate Florida A&M and obviously Mensah hasn't seen a defense anywhere near as good as Texas', which was Sayin's worst game.
Mensah is the better quarterback, will be drafted higher and will be a better pro in my opinion. I think Jeremiah Smith can help paper over any quarterback's flaws. But if you are just comparing on-paper resumes to date, I don't think Mensah is running away with it by any means.
I would also argue that you hit on exactly why the PFF grades are so similar. You are calling out "so-called analysts" when PFF is clearly on the record about valuing more difficult downfield throws.
That doesn't mean it is a perfect metric or grading rubric, but it's not like the PFF guys are closing their eyes and guessing at a grade for these players.
That's really my issue with this argument. Every time I address the specific point with numbers, the argument shifts. You haven't brought anything to this except, questions, opinions, and goalpost movement. Not an insult, or to be taken that way.
You started with "Sayin throws it downfield more" to explain his lower completion percentage. I showed you that Mensah is actually completing his 20+ yard throws at a much higher rate. There is nothing nearly identical in their stats or play on the field. Sayin has played 13 quarters to Mensah 11.5.
Then it became aDOT. Fine. Sayin's aDOT is higher, but Mensah is still averaging more yards per attempt while completing a much higher percentage of his passes.
Now we're talking FAMU vs. Texas and strength of schedule. I'm willing to acknowledge that context matters, but we're also early in the season. We don't know yet how good Texas actually is. They are better than FAMU, yes, but again, you're basing their strength of schedule off opinions of people that have something at stake.
Texas started last season #1 and finished #12. Their defense this season has looked good against an OSU team that offers nothing outside of Smith. They barely beat a Tennessee team with a freshman QB that hasn't looked that great. They almost lost both those games. And honestly, outside of Texas, Sayin hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row either. Ball State, Kent State and Illinois aren't anyone special. Stanford beats Ball State. CMU beats Kent State and Wake beats Illinois. So I'm fine with adding strength of schedule as context because Sayin's numbers have come from beating trash also.
Are you a PFF analyst?
I never said PFF is literally closing its eyes and guessing. I said I have a problem with the grading philosophy and how much weight it puts on subjective interpretation of individual plays.
And honestly, your response kind of reinforces my point.
That's my problem with using aDOT as the explanation by itself. aDOT only tells you how far downfield the ball is being targeted. It doesn't tell you what the quarterback actually does with those throws.
If your aDOT is higher but your yards per attempt is lower, then the extra depth isn't translating into more production.
It's like comparing two receivers. One catches every pass 19 yards downfield but gets tackled immediately. The other catches the ball 15 yards downfield but averages 6 yards after the catch.
The first receiver has the higher target depth, but the second receiver is producing more yards per catch.
That's basically what we're looking at here.
Carr has a 10.5 aDOT but averages 10.1 YPA. Sayin has an 11.6 aDOT but averages 10.5 YPA. Mensah has an 8.5 aDOT but averages 11.4 YPA.
So what exactly is the higher aDOT proving? It proves Carr and Sayin are throwing the ball farther downfield on average. It doesn't prove they're producing more with those throws.
And when you look at the 20+ yard passes, Mensah is 10-of-14, 71.4%. Carr is 12-of-21, 57.1%, and Sayin is 9-of-17, 52.9%.
That's why I don't think aDOT should be used to explain away the production difference. Throwing the ball farther doesn't automatically make it more valuable. You still have to complete the throw, create yards after the catch and turn those opportunities into actual production.
BTW, Thank you for a clean debate
Always appreciate a good clean debate and you've come correct. My intent wasn't to continuously move the goalposts or even defend Sayin that vigorously. I think my overarching point is that it wasn't THAT surprising to see Sayin ranked so close to Mensah in the grading (QBR has the same) and calling PFF and its analysts "trash" when in fact they just have a grading rubric that you disagree with seems over the top. PFF grades and QBR and everything else aren't meant to be perfect stats, they are just data points that can be used to inform opinions on who the best players are at the position.
Your point about the true usefulness of aDOT is well taken and I agree with it but the counterpoint would be that, generally speaking, a lower aDOT leads to a higher completion percentage, because they are easier throws to make.
As for the strength of schedule, I think you are being a bit disingenuous. I am not even talking about Texas as a whole (because you are right, they may be overrated as a team), I am just talking about how good their defense is. Sure the sample size is small and Texas' defense may look a bit worse as the schedule gets more difficult, but that unit is loaded with NFL draft prospects including the best edge rusher in the country. You cannot possibly argue that any of Miami's opponents have a defense even remotely that good. Half of Sayin's incompletions this season came against Texas, which, I think we agree, is the biggest difference in production btw the two players to date.
Maybe Mensah completes more than 55% of his passes against a Texas, maybe not. But I absolutely would like a player grading system to take into account the quality of the opponent.
I get it, I am bouncing around to different arguments and that might feel convenient. I just hate when people are like "oh PFF is so biased" when you are obviously carrying your own biases and I don't mean that as an insult. I think your opinion is much more nuanced and intelligent than just "durrr, Miami's players are better" and I also think you are right about a lot of it. I'm just not sure PFF is so egregious in this case.
That’s kind of weak SEC schedule hypothetically….
I won’t get into the debate other than to say wake may be a 10 win team this year— and not beyond the realm of possibility they could find their way to ACC championship if things feel right…
Not likely, but they’re sneaky good
Whoops…. Hard to win 20 in the same year- keystroke error “10 win” team
I knew what you meant big guy it’s all good
I gotcha— but you know the d-bags lurking would seize on that had I not corrected… sadly, dbags abound here…
