Darian Mensah Is PFF's Highest-Graded QB Through Week 4

Trinton Breeze
2 min read

Comments (29)

1.​

i

Spring ranking: 11th Total QBR: 93.9 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 63 | Total TDs: 15

When a QB has an amazing receiver at his disposal -- like, say, Malachi Toney or Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith -- it's hard to know what to do with his passing stats; do you discount them in some way because his job is easier than others'? But I try to make my job easy when I can: Even with Toney, Mensah ranks first among power conference QBs in completion rate (88.7%!), touchdowns (14), yards per dropback (11.0) and passing success rate* (68.7%). When you're No. 1 in that many key categories, you're No. 1 on this list. Miami spent a lot of money bringing Mensah to town, and he has thus far been worth twice as much.

* Success rate is the frequency with which an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.
 
I’m surprised the rankings are that close tbh. If you take away 2nd half against Wake, does that number jump exponentially?
 
I’m surprised the rankings are that close tbh. If you take away 2nd half against Wake, does that number jump exponentially?
This number feels like the second half of wake didn’t happen.
 
I know you know the difference between depth of target and yards gained on a play.
You originally brought up Sayin throwing it downfield more as the reason his completion percentage is lower. I showed you that Mensah is actually completing his 20+ yard throws at a much higher rate. Sayin has only attempted three more of them, so it's not like we're comparing a huge difference in volume. Then you switched from deep-ball production to aDOT.

That's fine. Let's look at that too.

Mensah: 88.7% completion 10/14 on 20+ yard throws (71.4%) 8.5 aDOT 11.4 yards per attempt

Sayin:
72.2% completion 9/17 on 20+ yard throws (52.9%) 11.6 aDOT 10.5 yards per attempt

Sayin is throwing it farther on average, but he's completing fewer of those deep shots, has a much lower overall completion percentage, and is averaging fewer yards per attempt.

That's the part I don't understand. If Sayin's higher aDOT is supposed to explain why his completion percentage is lower, then that's an accuracy issue. He chooses to throw it farther, but he isn't completing those throws at the same rate, and he's still producing fewer yards per attempt than Mensah.

Mensah's aDOT is lower, but his average pass is producing more yards. So what exactly is the advantage of Sayin's higher aDOT if it isn't translating into more production?

And aDOT isn't entirely a quarterback stat. Play calling affects it too. You could see that in the Wake game when Miami started calling a bunch of WR screens toward the end of the third quarter, which naturally brought Mensah's aDOT down.
 

1.​

i

Spring ranking: 11th Total QBR: 93.9 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 63 | Total TDs: 15

When a QB has an amazing receiver at his disposal -- like, say, Malachi Toney or Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith -- it's hard to know what to do with his passing stats; do you discount them in some way because his job is easier than others'? But I try to make my job easy when I can: Even with Toney, Mensah ranks first among power conference QBs in completion rate (88.7%!), touchdowns (14), yards per dropback (11.0) and passing success rate* (68.7%). When you're No. 1 in that many key categories, you're No. 1 on this list. Miami spent a lot of money bringing Mensah to town, and he has thus far been worth twice as much.

* Success rate is the frequency with which an offense is gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.
He is the truth! Championship elite football QB.
 
You originally brought up Sayin throwing it downfield more as the reason his completion percentage is lower. I showed you that Mensah is actually completing his 20+ yard throws at a much higher rate. Sayin has only attempted three more of them, so it's not like we're comparing a huge difference in volume. Then you switched from deep-ball production to aDOT.

That's fine. Let's look at that too.

Mensah: 88.7% completion 10/14 on 20+ yard throws (71.4%) 8.5 aDOT 11.4 yards per attempt

Sayin:
72.2% completion 9/17 on 20+ yard throws (52.9%) 11.6 aDOT 10.5 yards per attempt

Sayin is throwing it farther on average, but he's completing fewer of those deep shots, has a much lower overall completion percentage, and is averaging fewer yards per attempt.

That's the part I don't understand. If Sayin's higher aDOT is supposed to explain why his completion percentage is lower, then that's an accuracy issue. He chooses to throw it farther, but he isn't completing those throws at the same rate, and he's still producing fewer yards per attempt than Mensah.

Mensah's aDOT is lower, but his average pass is producing more yards. So what exactly is the advantage of Sayin's higher aDOT if it isn't translating into more production?

And aDOT isn't entirely a quarterback stat. Play calling affects it too. You could see that in the Wake game when Miami started calling a bunch of WR screens toward the end of the third quarter, which naturally brought Mensah's aDOT down.
Good summary, seriously, and admittedly I would have guessed that Sayin's YPA would have been at least equal to Mensah's, although Mensah's number is obviously bolstered by that Florida A&M game.

It is worth noting that in terms of pure production, Sayin's numbers are nearly identical and his interception was an end of game Hail Mary.

The other obvious difference in comparing the numbers is that say what you want about Ball State and Kent State, but both would dominate Florida A&M and obviously Mensah hasn't seen a defense anywhere near as good as Texas', which was Sayin's worst game.

Mensah is the better quarterback, will be drafted higher and will be a better pro in my opinion. I think Jeremiah Smith can help paper over any quarterback's flaws. But if you are just comparing on-paper resumes to date, I don't think Mensah is running away with it by any means.
 
And aDOT isn't entirely a quarterback stat. Play calling affects it too. You could see that in the Wake game when Miami started calling a bunch of WR screens toward the end of the third quarter, which naturally brought Mensah's aDOT down.
I would also argue that you hit on exactly why the PFF grades are so similar. You are calling out "so-called analysts" when PFF is clearly on the record about valuing more difficult downfield throws.

That doesn't mean it is a perfect metric or grading rubric, but it's not like the PFF guys are closing their eyes and guessing at a grade for these players.
 
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