"The situation is fluid" is reality. A lot of schools are in conversations with multiple conferences regarding what happens over the next 5 years in realignment. There ARE some people with legit B10 contacts and one of those is a guy on The B12 Mafia ... who has contacts at a couple of B10 programs. They just did a podcast with TIER RATINGS for a group of schools that are either interested in B10 membership OR are targets or potential targets of the B10 for the next realignment wave.
They did a TIER RANKING broken down by
1. MUST HAVE TARGET
2. PRIMARY TARGET
3. HIGH VALUE FALLBACK
4. STRATEGIC ADD
5. LAST RESORT
The guy with B10 contacts began by stating:
-The B10 is currently IN conversations with 4 short list schools.
-Miami is not one of the 4 schools on that short list during these current discussions.
-Wisconsin is a huge influencer in the B10 and they are CURRENTLY blocking Miami.
-Duke is cozying up to Michigan and "may have sweetened the pot" (ie, willing to join
with either a very small or NO media payout for the next contract).
TIER RANKINGS:
1. MUST HAVE: ND (Fox/CBS/NBC have stated that ND is worth $400million to the B10 ... enough to cover
the media payout to ND +3 other programs).
2. PRIMARY TARGET: UNC, MIAMI, FSU (Board of Governors is a problem), Clemson
3. HIGH VALUE FALLBACK: Stanford, Duke, Ga Tech
4. STRATEGIC ADDS: Kansas, AZ State, Virginia
5. LAST RESORT: Cal, Utah, Va Tech, Colorado
The TIER RANKINGS are presented as the B10 evaluation of WHO they would like .... THEN the B12 Mafia panel discussed their opinions of the realistic chances of what might actually happen, due to the SEC potentially grabbing 4 or more programs.
-SEC potential: UNC, FSU, UVA, +1
-ACC potential: ND, Clemson, Miami, Ga Tech (or Duke)
They have heard that ND is lobbying strongly for Clemson and ND carries weight with the B10 presidents ... whether they join now or potentially later on as an eventual requirement to have access to the CFP.
One of the B12 Mafia panelists is into "statistics" and had a media evaluation that was done by a network 3 years ago that used a variety of metrics to establish a TIER RATING of B10 expansion candidates at that time:
Tier 1. ND
Tier 2. UNC, OR, FSU, WA
Tier 3. Clemson, Miami, UT, Stanford Cal
Tier 4, 5 not listed
Reportedly the B10 presidents in general are NOT really comfortable with FSU due to it being a public university at the whim of the Board of Governors. In general they feel more comfortable with Miami, a private university, with a great airport, tremendous hotel and tourist infrastructure, and large market (with the caveat that Wisconsin is currently an issue with Miami).
Neither UCF or USF appear on ANY list for the next wave of P2 expansion.