MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Angry Ibis]

Dude … everything in moderation

Mope

 

[Rickd]

Good question ... there are so many scenarios out there that I'd imagine everything has been discussed somewhere or another, whether in mainstream media or pure internet speculation.

There has been chatter about 24-team conferences, but not necessarily from any reporters in the know (and realignment thinking at the SEC/B1G level is a pretty closely guarded secret).

But it's not too hard to identify candidates that could get serrous interest from one or both of the top two conferences if they decided to increase their collective membership from 34 to 48 schools.

From the ACC, I'd guess the list of candidates includes UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson, UM, NCSU, VT, Duke, GT, Stanford, Cal and (if you count them) the Irish

From the Big XII, it'd be Kansas, WVU, Colorado, Arizona State and perhaps Utahh.

Reckon we'll find out soon enough

How can this be? Fermin has stated repeatedly that "neither the SEC or B10 have any interest in expanding and nobody from the ACC has any offers from either".

Fact is this entire scenario has been orchestrated BY ESPN.

- They refused to execute the media agreement option to extend in 2021 so the media agreement term with the ACC ended in 2027.
- Phillips unilaterally offered ESPN an extension some 6-8 months after the option to extend had expired. That was a direct violation
of the ACC bylaws which call for member approval of ANY AND ALL modifications to media agreements.
-Phillips lied to the members when he said the "ACC agreement went through 2036" as it turns out that the GOR was created
specifically to SUPPORT THE ESPN MEDIA AGREEMENT ... they were complementary documents.
-ESPN knew that the ACC didn't have a leg to stand on if the legal actions continued ... and forced the ACC to bite the bullet and
"settle" .... establishing an exit fee that was several hundred million $$ below what the ACC was "representing" as a possible
total exit fee / penalty to leave the conference with rights.

The timing is now perfect for the next realignment move ... the CFP format for 2026 hasn't been finalized and the "P2" has the authority to virtually restructure as they see fit. Perfect time to add teams, add conference games, and due to those modifications, make adjustments to the media agreements for those conferences to compensate. Sure keeps the off season interesting.

 

[grover]

How can this be? Fermin has stated repeatedly that "neither the SEC or B10 have any interest in expanding and nobody from the ACC has any offers from either".

Fact is this entire scenario has been orchestrated BY ESPN.

- They refused to execute the media agreement option to extend in 2021 so the media agreement term with the ACC ended in 2027.
- Phillips unilaterally offered ESPN an extension some 6-8 months after the option to extend had expired. That was a direct violation
of the ACC bylaws which call for member approval of ANY AND ALL modifications to media agreements.
-Phillips lied to the members when he said the "ACC agreement went through 2036" as it turns out that the GOR was created
specifically to SUPPORT THE ESPN MEDIA AGREEMENT ... they were complementary documents.
-ESPN knew that the ACC didn't have a leg to stand on if the legal actions continued ... and forced the ACC to bite the bullet and
"settle" .... establishing an exit fee that was several hundred million $$ below what the ACC was "representing" as a possible
total exit fee / penalty to leave the conference with rights.

The timing is now perfect for the next realignment move ... the CFP format for 2026 hasn't been finalized and the "P2" has the authority to virtually restructure as they see fit. Perfect time to add teams, add conference games, and due to those modifications, make adjustments to the media agreements for those conferences to compensate. Sure keeps the off season interesting.

Can you lay out the money flows to make this happen? How much would Miami and others have to pay up to force the ACC to dissolve or reconstitute and get into a P2 in your scenario? I'm not going back 1776 pages to figure it out.

 

[Hold My Beer]

How can this be? Fermin has stated repeatedly that "neither the SEC or B10 have any interest in expanding and nobody from the ACC has any offers from either".

He's just parroting writers at the Athletic, ESPN and elsewhere who've insisted as much ... Just media folks out of the loop ****ing on scenarios they don't like and/or comprehend.

Fact is this entire scenario has been orchestrated BY ESPN.

My 2¢ is ESPN is riding in the co-pilot's seat with Greg Sankey at the controls.

It obvious Sankey needs his media partner's co-operation in imploding the ACC to pull off an expansion raid. And as you point out, he's clearly got it.

But the commissioner still answers to his university presidents, who no doubt would be pleased with the additions of institutions like UNC, UVA, Duke and GA Tech to the SEC.

And Sankey still has to deal with his AD's at mid- and lower-tier programs, who won't be as open to traditional football powers like FSU and Clemson without also bringing in teams those AD's can beat on a consistent basis to preserve their own jobs.

It's a balancing act for Sankey

 

[caneingville]

@Hold My Beer if Sankey is at the controls, which we can be reasonably certain to be true, then ESPN is playing puppet master alongside him. ESPN isn’t second string to this - they are making it happen. And why not? The NCAA allowed it to happen by never having their own CFB championship. It was ripe for the taking.

 

[caneingville]

Can you lay out the money flows to make this happen? How much would Miami and others have to pay up to force the ACC to dissolve or reconstitute and get into a P2 in your scenario? I'm not going back 1776 pages to figure it out.

It’s ~$75-165MM total for exit fees, depending on the year.

What does the ACC settling with FSU and Clemson mean? Here are the winners and losers

Clemson and Florida State are settling their lawsuits with the ACC, bringing stability to the conference — for now. What does it all mean?

www.nytimes.com

 

[Hold My Beer]

if Sankey is at the controls, which we can be reasonably certain to be true, then ESPN is playing puppet master alongside him. ESPN isn’t second string to this - they are making it happen.

Agree ... pilot and co-pilot - no second-stringers per se.

Sankey is responsible for getting all of his constituents in line to approve expansion targets.

ESPN's task is to implode its JV conference to free the captives but, importantly, without getting its hands (too) dirty.

Both parties have pretty much the same objective (perhaps identical if Miami is brought into the SEC which no doubt ESPN would prefer)

 

[Rickd]

Can you lay out the money flows to make this happen? How much would Miami and others have to pay up to force the ACC to dissolve or reconstitute and get into a P2 in your scenario? I'm not going back 1776 pages to figure it out.

According to the SETTLEMENT of the suits (ACC vs FSU / Clemson etc) ... a definitive exit fee schedule has been established. ANY team that wants to leave the ACC starting with the 2026 season can leave with all media rights by paying $168 million, and the "exit fee" decreases by $18 million each season thereafter until reaching $75M in 2030. THAT is the fact as of today ... FSU / Clemson ... basically won the suit ... with the ACC afraid of an even lower exit fee ... or no fee at all ... so they proposed this settlement. There is no longer a barrier to exit ... outside of the exit fee which is now clearly defined.

 

[grover]

According to the SETTLEMENT of the suits (ACC vs FSU / Clemson etc) ... a definitive exit fee schedule has been established. ANY team that wants to leave the ACC starting with the 2026 season can leave with all media rights by paying $168 million, and the "exit fee" decreases by $18 million each season thereafter until reaching $75M in 2030. THAT is the fact as of today ... FSU / Clemson ... basically won the suit ... with the ACC afraid of an even lower exit fee ... or no fee at all ... so they proposed this settlement. There is no longer a barrier to exit ... outside of the exit fee which is now clearly defined.

Has anyone done the math to estimate the breakeven point in terms of paying the fee and accessing a larger pie of revenues in the P2 versus staying in the ACC under the new rev share model?

 

[Hold My Beer]

FSU / Clemson ... basically won the suit ... with the ACC afraid of an even lower exit fee ... or no fee at all ... so they proposed this settlement. There is no longer a barrier to exit ... outside of the exit fee which is now clearly defined.

The ACC/Jim Phillips was right to be afraid with all the underhanded and quid pro quo dealings when John Swofford ran the conference like his own fiedom, e.g. his son/Raycom being "taken care of" in exchange for closing the deal with ESPN.

Once Phillips came to the conclusion ESPN (wisely) wouldn't prioritize its existing contract with the ACC over maintaining good relationships with its most valuable schools, he knew it was time to settle with FSU and Clemson and collect what he could for exit fees in an effort to fight off an inevitable poaching effort by the Big XII

 

[swat1]

Has anyone done the math to estimate the breakeven point in terms of paying the fee and accessing a larger pie of revenues in the P2 versus staying in the ACC under the new rev share model?

Since Pres Joe ran an accounting firm, I'm sure there's a spreadsheet or 2 lying around the office.

 

[Rickd]

Has anyone done the math to estimate the breakeven point in terms of paying the fee and accessing a larger pie of revenues in the P2 versus staying in the ACC under the new rev share model?

The core issues are much more than the "payback period" to cover the exit fee. The more important issues are:

-TV programming / big game scheduling. The SEC and B10 are literally taking over the prime time broadcast slots on ESPN,
FOX, CBS, NBC. Moves like "Big 10 Friday night football; The SEC on ABC" during the 2024 season is just a hint as to
the direction the networks are going in. There is no $$ in G5 teams vs P2 ... or ACC ... so pretty soon the only visibility
ACC teams will be getting will be on regional only ACCN and streaming apps.

-Less visibility = less revenue and less attractive programs for BIG TIME RECRUITS. Recruiting will tank.

Many are projecting that the P2 will be "adjusting" their current media deals well in advance of their next contract period due to:

-adding an additional conference game
-cross conference scheduling agreement between the SEC and B10
-modification of the CFP to include divisional conference playoffs (more games)

So ... with fodder to modify the current agreements the timing is perfect for adding teams as part of the "restructuring". Schools in the P2 get double the CFP money vs the ACC in addition to the base media deal differential. If an ACC team can "get out" for the 2026 season ... you do it if you have a slot in the P2.

 

[Hold My Beer]

Has anyone done the math to estimate the breakeven point in terms of paying the fee and accessing a larger pie of revenues in the P2 versus staying in the ACC under the new rev share model?

Depends a good bit on how much a particular school has the capability to generate additional revenue — primarlly in football but also in men's basketball.

How many more season and individual game tickets would Miami be able to sell as a member of the SEC or B1G vs remaining in the ACC?

How much could DanRad raise the price of those tickets and packages and sky boxes?

How many additional dollars would boosters be willing to give to athletics?

How soon would UM get a full media rights share in the SEC or B1G — and how would that compare dollar-for-dollar with the ACC?

What about CFP money, where beginning in 2026 all SEC and B1G schools are scheduled to receive payouts roughly twice as large as ACC and Big XII members (regardless of any CFP appearances or victories)?

There are hundreds of other peripheral aspects connected with advertising, marketing, student applications and so on.

Hard to overstate how big of a deal this could potentially be for UM athletics specifically and the University of Miami in general

 

[Hold My Beer]

TV programming / big game scheduling. The SEC and B10 are literally taking over the prime time broadcast slots on ESPN,
FOX, CBS, NBC. Moves like "Big 10 Friday night football; The SEC on ABC" during the 2024 season is just a hint as to
the direction the networks are going in. There is no $$ in G5 teams vs P2 ... or ACC ... so pretty soon the only visibility
ACC teams will be getting will be on regional only ACCN and streaming apps.

Here's where it gets interesting ...

If ESPN is in charge of SEC realignment, then it seems clear Miami will have to tell the SEC no, right? Why on earth would ESPN not want The U remaining under its umbrella as opposed to Fox and friends. No reason I can think of.

But if Sankey and his presidents are the ultimate decision-makers, then maybe UM does or does not get an SEC offer for many of the reasons mentioned in the previous 1176 pages in this thread.

UM told the SEC commissioner thanks but no thanks in 1990.

Will there be a similar opportunity in this next go-round?

 

[caneingville]

@grover I am confident that the school is working on all the scenarios right now - and there are multiple scenarios right now, and many of the factors have multiple variables as well. This isn’t something where any of us can quickly estimate a figure with some back of the napkin numbers. I think we all seem to have a good grasp of what this entails, but I reckon that we’ll also have a few more surprises before it’s all over.

In the end, it’s about profit, and being able to sustain the program, right? I’m not worried about the costs of being able to leave the ACC because the legal constraints are gone and the financial constraints I am sure we will figure out. So it’s just on us to market our product and make it desirable so another conference / network wants to “purchase” it.

If we fans thus have control over ANYTHING, it is that last part. We need to go to games (watch and get ratings up if unable to attend in person), donate to the collective, buy merchandise, support the team at other events, and actively participate in a positive way (social media helps) as much as possible so that the football program has as much of a competitive advantage as possible in this new market.

Mario has to take care of the on-the-field product. The university will deal with the financials and contracts and all of that. (Edit: the school also has to provide Mario with the resources, but it appears they are doing that.) But some of the unknowns I mentioned above, and some of the other variables that are key to our valuation, such as the program’s brand, are things the fanbase can control more than we realize.

 

[Rickd]

Here's where it gets interesting ...

If ESPN is in charge of SEC realignment, then it seems clear Miami will have to tell the SEC no, right? Why on earth would ESPN not want The U remaining under its umbrella as opposed to Fox and friends. No reason I can think of.

But if Sankey and his presidents are the ultimate decision-makers, then maybe UM does or does not get an SEC offer for many of the reasons mentioned in the previous 1176 pages in this thread.

UM told the SEC commissioner thanks but no thanks in 1990.

Will there be a similar opportunity in this next go-round?

It is an excellent question ... and the only person in the world that currently knows HIS position ... is Sankey.

 

[Hold My Beer]

... and the only person in the world that currently knows HIS position ... is Sankey.

I'm guessing Sankey's buddy Burke Magnus (the No. 2 guy at ESPN) probably has a good idea, too.

Also, what do you think the chances are UF's administration signed off on FSU coming aboard (same goes with South Carolina for Clemson), but expressed "reservations" about UM in the SEC?

Probably pretty decent, right?

 

[wdk3618]

How can this be? Fermin has stated repeatedly that "neither the SEC or B10 have any interest in expanding and nobody from the ACC has any offers from either".

Fact is this entire scenario has been orchestrated BY ESPN.

- They refused to execute the media agreement option to extend in 2021 so the media agreement term with the ACC ended in 2027.
- Phillips unilaterally offered ESPN an extension some 6-8 months after the option to extend had expired. That was a direct violation
of the ACC bylaws which call for member approval of ANY AND ALL modifications to media agreements.
-Phillips lied to the members when he said the "ACC agreement went through 2036" as it turns out that the GOR was created
specifically to SUPPORT THE ESPN MEDIA AGREEMENT ... they were complementary documents.
-ESPN knew that the ACC didn't have a leg to stand on if the legal actions continued ... and forced the ACC to bite the bullet and
"settle" .... establishing an exit fee that was several hundred million $$ below what the ACC was "representing" as a possible
total exit fee / penalty to leave the conference with rights.

The timing is now perfect for the next realignment move ... the CFP format for 2026 hasn't been finalized and the "P2" has the authority to virtually restructure as they see fit. Perfect time to add teams, add conference games, and due to those modifications, make adjustments to the media agreements for those conferences to compensate. Sure keeps the off season interesting.

I continue to appreciate your insight and analysis on this matter.

And I can't remember if I asked this like a year ago in this thread, but I continue to wonder why there aren't more hints on realignment based on recruiting. If I'm not mistaken, when Solomon Thomas flipped to LSU, didn't that mean that every composite 5 star in the 2025 class went to the Big 10/SEC? Other than money and maybe coaching staff, what question is more important right now for players, agents, handlers, parents etc. when looking at a school than what conference the school is in? Big 10/SEC is more exposure, and more exposure means more money for players right now.

It's a little hard for me to picture Mario spewing the usual "we are happy in the ACC and hope to remain here longterm" to recruits. I know Rad spews that as he probably has to, but does Mario have to behind the scenes to recruits? What is he telling recruits re realignment? And for the love of god, if he is giving hints, we hear recruits' parents all the time (usually complaining), why can't just one of them spill the beans on the convos so we get something useful out of them just once haha.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

When it comes to choosing the ideal steel for folding and pocket knives, there are a variety of factors that come into play, including corrosion resistance, hardness, toughness, edge retention, and price. Each steel type offers a different combination of these characteristics, which makes certain options better suited to specific uses and budgets. To help guide your decision-making, here's a ranking of the top 10 steels* for folding knives, factoring in these essential attributes.

1. CPM S90V​

CPM S90V is often regarded as one of the best steels for high-performance folding knives. Known for its incredible edge retention and high corrosion resistance, this steel is ideal for users who prioritize long-lasting sharpness. The high vanadium content in S90V increases wear resistance, making it a top choice for knives that need to stay sharp under heavy use. However, this comes at a cost, as S90V is tougher to sharpen than some other steels. While it is excellent for keeping an edge for long periods, its toughness is moderate, meaning it may be more prone to chipping under extreme stress. Despite these drawbacks, the performance in terms of corrosion resistance and edge retention justifies its position as the top choice for many knife enthusiasts. The main downside is its high price point, making it a luxury option for those willing to invest in top-tier materials.

2. M390​

M390 is another premium steel, renowned for its exceptional corrosion resistance and edge retention. This steel is a favorite in high-end folding knives due to its combination of stainless steel properties with excellent wear resistance, which contributes to its longevity in the field. Like S90V, M390 is a hard steel, typically achieving a hardness range of 60-62 HRC. Its edge retention is superb, and its resistance to rust and corrosion makes it ideal for knives that may be exposed to water or moisture. However, it shares a similar downside with S90V in that it is challenging to sharpen. The high price tag is another factor to consider, but for those seeking top-of-the-line performance, M390 is one of the best steels on the market.

3. CTS-204P​

CTS-204P is often compared to M390, as it offers nearly identical properties in terms of corrosion resistance, edge retention, and overall performance. Made by Carpenter Steel, it is known for its high chromium content, which enhances its resistance to rust and wear. CTS-204P provides outstanding wear resistance, keeping an edge sharp for extended periods of use, and its toughness is slightly superior to M390, making it less prone to chipping. This steel also holds its hardness well, ranging from 60-62 HRC, making it suitable for heavy-duty cutting tasks. While CTS-204P is slightly more affordable than M390, it still falls within the high-end price category, limiting its accessibility to those with higher budgets.

4. S35VN​

S35VN is often regarded as one of the best all-around steels for folding knives. It offers a balanced combination of excellent toughness, good edge retention, and high corrosion resistance. The addition of niobium to S35VN improves its toughness and makes it more durable under stress compared to its predecessor, S30V. While it doesn’t quite match the edge retention of M390 or S90V, S35VN strikes a perfect balance for those seeking a steel that is both durable and easier to sharpen. Its corrosion resistance is excellent, making it an ideal choice for EDC (Everyday Carry) knives that may face varying environmental conditions. Price-wise, S35VN falls into the moderate to high range, but its combination of features makes it a worthwhile investment for most users.

5. Elmax​

Elmax steel is a high-performance option that combines outstanding corrosion resistance with excellent edge retention. Its high chromium content allows it to maintain sharpness for extended periods while resisting rust and corrosion. With a hardness range of 59-61 HRC, Elmax offers a balance of toughness and cutting performance that is hard to beat. However, like M390, Elmax can be a bit more challenging to sharpen, and its price can be on the higher side. Despite this, Elmax is a popular choice for custom and premium production knives, offering a reliable steel that works well in a variety of cutting tasks, from light EDC use to more demanding fieldwork.

6. VG-10​

VG-10 is a Japanese stainless steel that has gained widespread popularity in mid-range folding knives due to its excellent balance of performance characteristics. It offers good corrosion resistance and edge retention, and while it doesn’t quite measure up to the high-end steels like S90V or M390, it still holds an edge well for regular use. VG-10 typically achieves a hardness of around 59-61 HRC, providing a good combination of toughness and wear resistance. One of VG-10’s biggest strengths is its relatively easier sharpening process compared to harder steels, which is beneficial for users who value convenience. Additionally, VG-10 offers an affordable price point, making it a solid choice for budget-conscious buyers without sacrificing too much in terms of performance.

7. 154CM​

154CM is another great option for those seeking good performance at a more affordable price point. It offers a good combination of toughness, edge retention, and corrosion resistance. While not as corrosion-resistant as steels like M390 or S90V, 154CM’s resistance is still quite good. With a hardness range of 58-61 HRC, it holds an edge fairly well but is easier to sharpen than many of the high-performance steels. 154CM is often found in mid-range folding knives and offers an excellent balance of value and performance, making it a popular choice for those who want a solid, reliable knife without the premium price.

8. D2​

D2 is a tool steel that is well-regarded for its excellent edge retention and toughness. While it doesn’t boast the corrosion resistance of many stainless steels, its resistance to wear is outstanding, making it a good choice for knives that are used in rugged environments. D2 typically has a hardness of 59-61 HRC, providing good cutting performance and durability. However, its moderate corrosion resistance means it requires more maintenance than stainless steels, particularly when exposed to moisture. Despite its lower corrosion resistance, D2 remains a popular choice for affordable, hard-use knives due to its overall toughness and edge retention.

9. AUS-10​

AUS-10 is a Japanese steel that is often used in budget to mid-range folding knives. It offers a solid balance of corrosion resistance, toughness, and edge retention, though it doesn’t perform at the same level as more premium steels. With a hardness of around 58-60 HRC, AUS-10 is a good steel for everyday carry knives that need to stand up to daily tasks. While it doesn’t hold an edge as long as some higher-end steels, its ease of sharpening and affordable price make it a solid choice for users who need a functional knife without breaking the bank.

10. 8Cr13MoV​

8Cr13MoV is one of the most common budget steels used in entry-level folding knives. It offers a good balance of corrosion resistance, toughness, and edge retention, though its performance falls short compared to more premium steels. With a hardness range of 58-60 HRC, 8Cr13MoV is not as tough or wear-resistant as steels like D2 or VG-10, but it performs adequately for light use. The biggest advantage of 8Cr13MoV is its affordability, making it a great option for those just starting to explore folding knives or those who don’t need a high-performance steel for everyday tasks.

Conclusion​

Choosing the right steel for your folding knife comes down to balancing your needs with your budget. Premium steels like CPM S90V, M390, and CTS-204P offer exceptional performance in terms of edge retention and corrosion resistance but come at a higher price. For those seeking a good balance of features and value, S35VN, Elmax, and VG-10 offer great performance at a moderate cost. 154CM and D2 are excellent options for budget-conscious buyers who still need good edge retention and toughness. Finally, steels like AUS-10 and 8Cr13MoV provide solid performance for entry-level knives, offering good corrosion resistance and ease of sharpening at an affordable price.

Each steel brings something unique to the table, so your choice will depend on your specific needs—whether you prioritize durability, ease of maintenance, or a balanced all-around performer.






* Without even going into some of the rarer knife steels, the fact this list doesn't include Magnacut or Vanax is criminal. ChatGPT has failed miserably here.

 

[Hurracanes]

It is an excellent question ... and the only person in the world that currently knows HIS position ... is Sankey.

SEC doesn’t want Miami. Demanded too much from Miami and Miami wasn’t interested in meeting their demands. At least, that was 2 years ago or so. I have no reason to think that changed. **** Florida, too. They are fighting to keep us and FSU out.

Big X has always been it for many reasons.