MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[Rickd]

Having sold reverse mortgages (the most soul sucking, depressing job of my life) , I can tell you - no, it almost always is not.

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) . It's not great and means we clearly got out maneuvered by FSU - even the most irrational UM sunshine pumpers will have to admit FSU won the long game- but at least we'll recruit better in Texas (probably)

We ONLY end up there if a). The ACC is dissolved and b). B10 won't take us even on a partial share for several years.

HUGE RISK is that with the 3 new dilutive programs joining, FSU and Clemson leaving, it only takes 2/3rds vote of members to approve a NEW GOR. So ESPN offers $25M per team per year, down from the current $40+, and the weak sisters all vote YEAH as they have no other home. We would need SIX to vote no. And FSU and Clemson aren't voting.

 

[RightSaidFred]

Read my post above (#17,129). That it the risk ... it takes a 2/3rds vote to accept or modify a media agreement according to ACC Bylaws. Once the 3 new teams are on board, July 1, 2024, it would take SIX VOTES against to defeat any proposed changes. Not sure if there are 6 votes there, as Clemson and FSU would not be voting.

July 1 is two and a half months away. There's no chance a settlement is going to happen that quickly.

 

[RightSaidFred]

We ONLY end up there if a). The ACC is dissolved and b). B10 won't take us even on a partial share for several years.

HUGE RISK is that with the 3 new dilutive programs joining, FSU and Clemson leaving, it only takes 2/3rds vote of members to approve a NEW GOR. So ESPN offers $25M per team per year, down from the current $40+, and the weak sisters all vote YEAH as they have no other home. We would need SIX to vote no. And FSU and Clemson aren't voting.

If they offered $25M per team, six would vote "no" because the Big 12 would be more lucrative. In fact I think the Big 12 is paying more than the ACC is currently, so any reduction at all would be met with resistence.

I think the scenario laid out is pie in the sky from ESPN. Not only do I doubt that the ACC will agree to it, I doubt that even Clemson or FSU would. Why would they agree to take partial shares in the SEC, splitting revenue with the ACC, if the alternative is not extending the TV deal and blowing up the ACC? If they did that, Clemson and FSU would escape for free.

The proposed negotiation would benefit ESPN, but I don't think it benefits the other parties enough to where it will be accepted IMO

 

[Empirical Cane]

Because it's better than the alternative. And I stand by my belief that Rads top preference is staying in the ACC. I expect the acc and espn will come up with some additional performance based incentives and then publish some funny math to show how the top 3 acc teams will make "comparable" amounts of money as the P2 schools, especially when you factor in things like travel distance and not needing to add additional non revenue sports.

This is probably option 1 or 1a for our Miami Hurricanes.

Does it happen?

Again, if ESPN puts FSU + Clemson into SEC, Fox + BIG10 almost have to go after Miami + UNC + UCF (yes, I said it).

Then....conferences implode anyways in 2030s and new super conference emerges for the 20-30-ish pay-to-play big boys.

Maryland and Minnesota and Indiana and Northwestern aren't it.

 

[Zombie-Cane]

WE don't have to agree ... but "media agreements" require a 2/3rds vote of members.
Clemson and FSU would not be voting as they would not BE ACC conference members. Timing is everything.
After July 1, 2024 Cal, Stanford, SMU come on board and the conference would have 15 voting members on football media agreements, not including FSU, Clemson, or ND (who is not a football member and therefore shouldn't be voting on a football media contract).

All it takes is 10 of the 15 conference members voting FOR the new deal.

I see these teams voting FOR
BC
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Stanford
Cal
SMU
Pitt
UVA
Duke
Ga Tech

Against
Miami
UNC
Va Tech
NC State
Louisville

If the vote is BEFORE July 1 we have a better chance. After ... good luck. Still hoping for a miracle and 8 teams vote to dissolve prior to June.

I don't see SMU, Pitt, UVA, or Duke voting for, when all of them would be welcomed in the Big12 and would make more.....

 

[Mi.Cane]

Big 12 will get $31.7 million each starting 2025

 

[Ispyin]

Again, I hope you're right and ALL of these supposed "insiders" are wrong. They all have the Canes 4th or 5th best option at the highest.

jfc who gives a **** if you have the fourth seat in the front row at the concert if there are at least four seats in the front row and everyone else doesn't have a ticket. I think Miami probably is 3rd or fourth (Notre Dame is not joining a conference next round- I'll buy someone tickets to their first conference game if I am wrong) and there will almost certainly either be 4+ seats available OR something wild takes place (like next apocalypse version of covid) and even FSU is still stuck. In which case we all have issues....

And **** genetics as an insider- the guy is more wrong than my wife. He's changing "support" for Miami on politics and optics but yeah let me believe his take. FSU **** is so far up his *** as their hero on their boards and on Twitter I am surprised he can even breathe.

Do you think the Ohio State President or Fox Executives give a **** what optics are in lawsuits and the various strategies behind them? PAC12 schools were threatening lawsuits and voting to continue the league the night before 3 joined the BIg12.

I can make an argument that B1G admin side might not love how "impolite" FSU is being to someone they might want to live in their house for decades. I also highly doubt (but possible of course cause Miami still can Miami) that through back channels Miami hasn't at least told FSU and Clemson why they may have been doing what they are - Miami would be stupid not to IMO because the last thing you want if you don't wind up in same conference is the rivalry dying out of spite. We shall see.

None of that **** matters. Everything is a negotiating play. I hate the optics of Miami right now and wish we were suing just to stop the ****** monologues and FSU trolling and I wish JF wasn't our possible lame-duck president right now. But from a purely legal perspective as much as I hate to admit it, Miami case is not as strong as FSU because of all the state-related issues, but yes if they win, we would win in terms of path too (still would have to take action of course as @TheOriginalCane often says at some point).

 

[FL Cane]

Having sold reverse mortgages (the most soul sucking, depressing job of my life) , I can tell you - no, it almost always is not.

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) . It's not great and means we clearly got out maneuvered by FSU - even the most irrational UM sunshine pumpers will have to admit FSU won the long game- but at least we'll recruit better in Texas (probably)

We’re not going to the Big 12. I know you want that to happen, but “sitting on our thumbs” to you and half of this board = not blowing an air horn on what we’re doing re: realignment. Also, we’re not sitting on our thumbs here.

 

[Hold My Beer]

But Clemson and FSU will be able to jump the SEC whenever because espn wants it to happen, and the acc is going to be on board with the plan because it gets rid of its two most vocal critics and turns down the temperature on acc leadership.

No turning down the thermostat at this point.

Once FSU and Clemson officially bail, it's gonna be rats fleeing a sinking ship.

The ACC is done for

 

[FL Cane]

We ONLY end up there if a). The ACC is dissolved and b). B10 won't take us even on a partial share for several years.

HUGE RISK is that with the 3 new dilutive programs joining, FSU and Clemson leaving, it only takes 2/3rds vote of members to approve a NEW GOR. So ESPN offers $25M per team per year, down from the current $40+, and the weak sisters all vote YEAH as they have no other home. We would need SIX to vote no. And FSU and Clemson aren't voting.

At that point we’d pay the buyout to leave the conference. Also, even in that scenario, you’d have us, UNC, NCST, Louisville, UVA, and VT vote no.

 

[Rickd]

At that point we’d pay the buyout to leave the conference. Also, even in that scenario, you’d have us, UNC, NCST, Louisville, UVA, and VT vote no.

If we would have THOSE VOTES THEN ... why not NOW along with FSU & Clemson .... VOTE TO DISSOLVE and save the $130M ACC buyout fee. The revised ESPN media deal will be $25M with a lot of luck. No way does it approach the current number.

 

[FL Cane]

If we would have THOSE VOTES THEN ... why not NOW along with FSU & Clemson .... VOTE TO DISSOLVE and save the $130M ACC buyout fee. The revised ESPN media deal will be $25M with a lot of luck. No way does it approach the current number.

Because the scenario you’d mentioned is akin to a gun to the head to us and those five other teams. They’d be presented with the worst media deal in P4 football. That’s not what any team here is facing right now. If presented with that option things would change.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

July 1 is two and a half months away. There's no chance a settlement is going to happen that quickly.

Not so sure on that one. If it was just "gears of justice turning", then, yes, it might not happen quickly, but if a media partner or partners gets involved, it could go much more quickly.

 

[Hold My Beer]

I stand by my belief that Rads top preference is staying in the ACC

The money divide between the SEC/B1G and ACC will soon be like the linebacker gap between Ray Lewis and Ryan Ragone (no shade on RR).

No school is riding the Titanic to the bottom of the ocean if it has a choice

Let FSU and Clemson kick the door down, then UNC make an announcement it's leaving, too, and the ACC will crumble quicker than Billy Napier's coaching reputation

Just have a little patience

 

[Rickd]

Because the scenario you’d mentioned is akin to a gun to the head to us and those five other teams. They’d be presented with the worst media deal in P4 football. That’s not what any team here is facing right now. If presented with that option things would change.

??? You're voting to dissolve to JOIN either the B10, SEC or B12, not be "presented with a media deal". The media deal ESPN will propose to the "left over ACC members" after FSU and Clemson leaves ... will be much lower than the B12.

 

[Cane6]

#7....c'mon now...SoFL is nowhere close to Top 10, I don't even think Top 30...

Now, concentration of wealthy zip codes...ok...different story...

I see your point for the others though...

Bro, you responded without knowing what you’re talking about.

South Florida is in top tier in the nation for net migration and new multifamily development. You’ve gotta go off of numbers, rather than % growth because metro Miami is already really big at over 6mm. South Florida has, and will continue to be a leader in population growth.

I previously cited an annual growth number, but some of the data gets to be unclear when looking at Miami, Miami-Dade, South Florida. Big picture, Miami vs South Florida, both are in the top 10 for growth nation wide

Dallas, Austin, Raleigh Durham and are also in this list.

The BigTen wants into Florida

 

[Rickd]

The money divide between the SEC/B1G and ACC will soon be like the linebacker gap between Ray Lewis and Ryan Ragone (no shade on RR).

No school is riding the Titanic to the bottom of the ocean if it has a choice

Let FSU and Clemson kick the door down, then UNC make an announcement it's leaving, too, and the ACC will crumble quicker than Billy Napier's coaching reputation

Just have a little patience

UNLESS ESPN brokers a DEAL taking Clem / FSU to the SEC and gets ACC members to accept a revised (lower) media deal.

 

[KANE]

Hear there is some smoke from the B12 about offering a “select echelon” of teams sprinkled throughout the country a “100+” percentage of their TV revenue. Essentially the opposite of what SMU, Oregon, and others have done. If we can get into that select group, Miami may be able to salvage its future after the ACC collapses.

Sometimes a reverse mortgage is just plain smart.

 

[Hold My Beer]

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) .

Not following what you're saying here.

You think UM's administration should be setting fire to every bridge within 100 miles like what's going on in Tallahassee?

Name one Big Ten expansion addition that created even a small ripple before leaving?

USC and UCLA certainly didn't when they snuck out at midnight.

U-Dub and Oregon were lying through their teeth even after they left the Pac-12, saying something to the effect of "we would've stayed if only the money and exposure in the proposed media agreements had been a little better."

Yeah, right. Sure y'all would've stayed and been relegated to a second-tier conference by choice

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I love everyone on the board, and I respect the ongoing conversation.

But this concept that "the Big 12" will be anywhere near comparable to what the Big 10/SEC are doing is just nutty.

And you can save the "but it's better than nothing" line. So is the ACC ("better than nothing").

We need to march on the Big 10 and burn the bridges behind us.

Anything less is death to our way of life (playing for championships).