MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

[Ispyin]

Of course it does. However, what percentage of the college football viewing market in SFL does the University of Miami provide? Hopefully it's enough to satisfy B1G desires.

The lack of knowledge on publicly available information is pretty mind-boggling. Miami -even at 7-5 thus getting less good networks and timeslots - was still a top 25 to top 30 draw. For those who can’t do math, the entire Big Ten and SEC are 34 teams (for now). Obviously, there are teams in the top 25 that are not in those conferences but you get the general extraction point.

Markets matter, but it’s more about the national overall audience, especially for somebody like Fox who sells more of their inventory that way. It’s also about what matchups would result and what rivalries are continued, reestablished, or possibly initiated.

A 24/7 poll of 1600 recruits in 2023 - meaning players that weren’t even born the last time Miami was pretty much relevant- still had Miami ranked as a top 10 brand.

The things some people worry about in this entire conversation are pretty pointless. Miami brand value is so strong that even after 20 years of sucking and having a basically 500 record, the school still draws, despite being among the smallest alumni and student bases in CFB Div 1. Don’t let empty seats because of mediocrity and ****** schedules get you confused about national brand appeal and TV ratings upside.

All the networks know what happens to ratings when Miami is good or plays a name brand and they know the floor is still better than 80% of college football even Miami sucks.

That’s not being a homer that’s just ******* facts.

My fear is not based on any of that kind of crap - to the degree that it exists it is around that I am not a big believer in Miami’s ability to get out of their way at times until proven differently, or an unforeseen wildcard - even though my strong view remains that we will be playing USC sometime in the not too distant future - and it won’t be an out of conference game or only because of a playoff matchup or god forbid meeting in the whogivesa**** bowl.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

IF FSU and Clem were to join the SEC, that would not take B1G spots [if any remain] that might be available to us.

I don't think any teams are going to the B1G until the end of the GOR. When that actually ends, who knows. Hopefully 2027. But Clemson and FSU will be able to jump the SEC whenever because espn wants it to happen, and the acc is going to be on board with the plan because it gets rid of its two most vocal critics and turns down the temperature on acc leadership.

 

[Rickd]

I did read all of it, and it does make sense for ESPN to broker this deal for their own self-interest.

Strategic questions if above comes to fruition:
1) What does ESPN + ACC offer remaining "big" ACC programs to stay through 2036 as offset? Miami + UNC are going to demand bigger slice of pie
2) What does ESPN + Big12 offer Miami + UNC (and BB schools) to jump ship? I think that Yormark cat is an evil genius and isn't afraid of ANYBODY
3) ESPN moves almost demands Fox + BIG10 make run at Miami + UNC to encircle SEC geographically


Shalala better be advocating 24/7 for The U....


Thoughts????

No way Miami should be signing off on the "negotiated deal" with a reduced ACC media payout and equal distribution. That is a new GOR ... we don't sign ... we leave. Has Donna greased the skids to the B10?

 

[Cane6]

The ACC schools know the conference leaders have fuqed them at every opportunity, excluding the North Carolina schools, you don’t think the rest of the universities talk to each other?

You think fsu or Clemson really didn’t know about the emergency vote that Phillips called?

My god some of you are stupid

The sky is falling, Miami is stuck in the ACC with Wake Forest and Boston College until 2036…. Keep on believing that

Taking it a step further to connect the dots for the stupid people

1. We know 7-8 ACC schools met in the past 18 months to strategize as to how to get out of the GoR deal, FSU Clemson and Miami had been meeting together and snooping around ACC office long before that

2. You are all idiots if you think FSU and Clemson are operating independently in their lawsuits without alignment from the other Group of 7 schools

3. FSU resides in the most advantageous state from a lawsuit standpoint, while also being at the state capital, which holds political weight, and is a public university. For those reasons FSU was ALWAYS going to be the lead in filing suit compared to Miami. The FSU attorney portraying the state tax payers covering the hypothetical fsu exit fees was 100% the right play, which Miami as a private university couldn’t pitch. I would be shocked if Miami wasn’t subsidizing FSU’s legal expenses, informally, and both schools were aligned with the plan.

4. The ACC started with the 4 North Carolina a schools, none of them were ever going to be the first school to sue the conference. What is telling, is that UNC has been way more vocal in their displeasure with the conference and tv money

5. Miami and Notre Dame getting AAU status in 2023 wasn’t by accident. FSU is pushing to get it asap and likely will get it in June

6. The ACC totally screwed fsu last year for the playoffs, and Miami has their best shot in years, and therefore isn’t publicly ****ing off Jim Phillips going into the 2024 season

7. TV viewership and broadcast fees trump everything else. Miami is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the whole country. Miami’s average attendance at Hard Rock is irrelevant in the value formula that FOX and the BigTen look at

A lot of you guys really need to think bigger picture.

 

[wichitacane]

Hey didn't someone here say that exact scenario would play out? Oh right, that was me.

Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?

 

[Cane6]

Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?

They wouldn’t, and if ESPN played hardball the remaining schools would then be able to shop the tv deal to another provider. The Big12, and their “second tier” group of schools already are getting paid more money than the ACC because they have a real conference president that works for member schools and isn’t in bed with espn

 

[Felonious Monk]

We aren't getting left out. This is 2 years old before a single game was played under Mario.

Ranking all 69 Power 5 schools by college sports value - Sports Illustrated

If the college sports started over, who would be most coveted? We break it down with a formula.

www.si.com

 

[CaneinBroward]

The lack of knowledge and plainly available information is pretty mind-boggling. Even at seven and five Miami and thus getting less good networks and timeslots was still a top 25 to top 30 draw. For those who can’t do math, the entire Big Ten and SEC are 34 teams (for now). Obviously there are teams in the top 25 that are not in those conferences but you get the general extraction point

Markets matter, but it’s more about national overall audience, especially for somebody like fox that sells more of their inventory that way. It’s also about what matchups would result in what rivalries are continued, reestablished, or possibly initiated.

A 24/7 poll of 1600 recruits in 2023 - meaning players that weren’t even born the last time. Miami was pretty much relevant- still had Miami ranked as a top 10 brand.

The thing, some people worry about in this entire conversation are pretty pointless. Miami brown value is so strong that even after 20 years of sucking, and having a basically 500 record, the school still draws, besides being among the smallest alumni and student Bases in CFB div 1. don’t let empty seats because of mediocrity and ****** schedules. Confused, national brand appeal and TV ratings upside.

All the networks know what happens to ratings when Miami is good or plays a name brand and they know the floor is still better than 80% of college football with Miami sucks.

That’s not being a homer that’s just ******* facts.

My fear is not based on any of that kind of crap is that I am not a big believer in Miami’s ability to get out of their own way at times until proven differently or unforeseen wildcard even though my strong view still remains that we will be playing USC sometime in the not too distant future and it won’t be an out of conference game.

Again, I hope you're right and ALL of these supposed "insiders" are wrong. They all have the Canes 4th or 5th best option at the highest.

 

[Rickd]

Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?

WE don't have to agree ... but "media agreements" require a 2/3rds vote of members.
Clemson and FSU would not be voting as they would not BE ACC conference members. Timing is everything.
After July 1, 2024 Cal, Stanford, SMU come on board and the conference would have 15 voting members on football media agreements, not including FSU, Clemson, or ND (who is not a football member and therefore shouldn't be voting on a football media contract).

All it takes is 10 of the 15 conference members voting FOR the new deal.

I see these teams voting FOR
BC
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Stanford
Cal
SMU
Pitt
UVA
Duke
Ga Tech

Against
Miami
UNC
Va Tech
NC State
Louisville

If the vote is BEFORE July 1 we have a better chance. After ... good luck. Still hoping for a miracle and 8 teams vote to dissolve prior to June.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Again, I hope you're right and ALL of these supposed "insiders" are wrong. They all have the Canes 4th or 5th best option at the highest.

Read my link.

16. Clemson
19. FSU
22. UNC
25. Miami

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Why would we agree to an extension for less revenue?

Because it's better than the alternative. And I stand by my belief that Rads top preference is staying in the ACC. I expect the acc and espn will come up with some additional performance based incentives and then publish some funny math to show how the top 3 acc teams will make "comparable" amounts of money as the P2 schools, especially when you factor in things like travel distance and not needing to add additional non revenue sports.

 

[RightSaidFred]

No way Miami should be signing off on the "negotiated deal" with a reduced ACC media payout and equal distribution. That is a new GOR ... we don't sign ... we leave. Has Donna greased the skids to the B10?

Are you sure Miami would be required to sign off? The GOR is already signed, that required unanimous signoff but they already have that through the term. I'm not sure if signing a revised media agreement with ESPN would require unanimous consent or just a 3/4 majority, or half.... I'm not familiar enough with the ACC bylaws to know that for sure.

But who's to say if every ACC member except UNC and Miami vote to approve the deal, that it wouldn't go in to effect anyway?

Miami needs to tread carefully.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Taking it a step further to connect the dots for the stupid people

1. We know 7-8 ACC schools met in the past 18 months to strategize as to how to get out of the GoR deal, FSU Clemson and Miami had been meeting together and snooping around ACC office long before that

2. You are all idiots if you think FSU and Clemson are operating independently in their lawsuits without alignment from the other Group of 7 schools

3. FSU resides in the most advantageous state from a lawsuit standpoint, while also being at the state capital, which holds political weight, and is a public university. For those reasons FSU was ALWAYS going to be the lead in filing suit compared to Miami. The FSU attorney portraying the state tax payers covering the hypothetical fsu exit fees was 100% the right play, which Miami as a private university couldn’t pitch. I would be shocked if Miami wasn’t subsidizing FSU’s legal expenses, informally, and both schools were aligned with the plan.

4. The ACC started with the 4 North Carolina a schools, none of them were ever going to be the first school to sue the conference. What is telling, is that UNC has been way more vocal in their displeasure with the conference and tv money

5. Miami and Notre Dame getting AAU status in 2023 wasn’t by accident. FSU is pushing to get it asap and likely will get it in June

6. The ACC totally screwed fsu last year for the playoffs, and Miami has their best shot in years, and therefore isn’t publicly ****ing off Jim Phillips going into the 2024 season

7. TV viewership and broadcast fees trump everything else. Miami is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the whole country. Miami’s average attendance at Hard Rock is irrelevant in the value formula that FOX and the BigTen look at

A lot of you guys really need to think bigger picture.

#7....c'mon now...SoFL is nowhere close to Top 10, I don't even think Top 30...

Now, concentration of wealthy zip codes...ok...different story...

I see your point for the others though...

 

[CaneinBroward]

Read my link.

16. Clemson
19. FSU
22. UNC
25. Miami

And that matches up with what the "insiders" say in general. How many teams are going to the P2? No one knows.

And per your lists, you can add Stanford at 17 and Okla St tied with Miami as those who could potentially go ahead.

Let's hope the powers that be get it done.

 

[KANE]

"Over the last year I have been fortunate to learn from Florida State fans about Miami's stadium issues, attendance problems, and the challenges they face from an attendance and stadium perspective."

"I have been lucky to learn ..." from fans talking **** about their rivals on twitter? Can you imagine him saying he's lucky to learn about Ohio State from Michigan fans? Or about Alabama from Auburn fans??

If this guy had any credibility before, its gone now.

Right. F$U fans will probably tell him that our math department is in the middle of the 'Pork n Beans' projects. So if he's listening to them dumbfuccs to tell him ANYTHING about Miami, then he's a cuck.

 

[AuoraCane]

Taking it a step further to connect the dots for the stupid people

1. We know 7-8 ACC schools met in the past 18 months to strategize as to how to get out of the GoR deal, FSU Clemson and Miami had been meeting together and snooping around ACC office long before that

2. You are all idiots if you think FSU and Clemson are operating independently in their lawsuits without alignment from the other Group of 7 schools

3. FSU resides in the most advantageous state from a lawsuit standpoint, while also being at the state capital, which holds political weight, and is a public university. For those reasons FSU was ALWAYS going to be the lead in filing suit compared to Miami. The FSU attorney portraying the state tax payers covering the hypothetical fsu exit fees was 100% the right play, which Miami as a private university couldn’t pitch. I would be shocked if Miami wasn’t subsidizing FSU’s legal expenses, informally, and both schools were aligned with the plan.

4. The ACC started with the 4 North Carolina a schools, none of them were ever going to be the first school to sue the conference. What is telling, is that UNC has been way more vocal in their displeasure with the conference and tv money

5. Miami and Notre Dame getting AAU status in 2023 wasn’t by accident. FSU is pushing to get it asap and likely will get it in June

6. The ACC totally screwed fsu last year for the playoffs, and Miami has their best shot in years, and therefore isn’t publicly ****ing off Jim Phillips going into the 2024 season

7. TV viewership and broadcast fees trump everything else. Miami is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the whole country. Miami’s average attendance at Hard Rock is irrelevant in the value formula that FOX and the BigTen look at

A lot of you guys really need to think bigger picture.

You need revamp your opinion regarding #7. Latest census figures have Dallas, Houston and Atlanta as the three fastest growing large metros. Miami's TV market only includes Dade County. Broward and Palm Beach are in their own separate TV markets based on Nielsen. Plus half Dade County doesn't speak English and even less care about college football. The other 6 items I more or less agree. And I do believe that Fox understands Miami's brand potential and national TV draw when we are winning.

 

[IndayArtHauz]

Hear there is some smoke from the B12 about offering a “select echelon” of teams sprinkled throughout the country a “100+” percentage of their TV revenue. Essentially the opposite of what SMU, Oregon, and others have done. If we can get into that select group, Miami may be able to salvage its future after the ACC collapses.

Sometimes a reverse mortgage is just plain smart.

 

[cway313]

We still doing the smart thing by waiting to see then hoping for a spot?

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

Hear there is some smoke from the B12 about offering a “select echelon” of teams sprinkled throughout the country a “100+” percentage of their TV revenue. Essentially the opposite of what SMU, Oregon, and others have done. If we can get into that select group, Miami may be able to salvage its future after the ACC collapses.

Sometimes a reverse mortgage is just plain smart.

Having sold reverse mortgages (the most soul sucking, depressing job of my life) , I can tell you - no, it almost always is not.

But as for the Big 12, I think that's where we eventually end up after sitting on our thumbs for too long and the P2 deciding that they don't need to further dilute shares (at least for a few years) . It's not great and means we clearly got out maneuvered by FSU - even the most irrational UM sunshine pumpers will have to admit FSU won the long game- but at least we'll recruit better in Texas (probably)

 

[Rickd]

Are you sure Miami would be required to sign off? The GOR is already signed, that required unanimous signoff but they already have that through the term. I'm not sure if signing a revised media agreement with ESPN would require unanimous consent or just a 3/4 majority, or half.... I'm not familiar enough with the ACC bylaws to know that for sure.

But who's to say if every ACC member except UNC and Miami vote to approve the deal, that it wouldn't go in to effect anyway?

Miami needs to tread carefully.

Read my post above (#17,129). That it the risk ... it takes a 2/3rds vote to accept or modify a media agreement according to ACC Bylaws. Once the 3 new teams are on board, July 1, 2024, it would take SIX VOTES against to defeat any proposed changes. Not sure if there are 6 votes there, as Clemson and FSU would not be voting.