Me too, but I think there is a possibility for teams that have SEC invites. ACC recently told FSU that buying back media rights was a "commercial possibility" subject to negotiation. Lots of people think that means the 3x operating cost (estimated at 120 million). You probably know this already but that 120 mil isn't the price to buy back media rights. The 3x operating cost is written directly in ACC bylaws (publicly available) as just the exit fee for the conference. That is completely separate from the GOR. A team can leave but the ACC still owns the media rights to home games.
People were floating the $550 million number as the cost for exit fee plus media rights, FSU could conceivably settle at something like 350 million. That essentially breaks down to 35 million over 10 years, which is roughly what FSU would have received from the ACC annually over a 10 year span, give or take a few million. Now the money that would have gone to FSU gets split up between the remaining teams. Anyways, if that happens, my guess is ESPN likely is ok with the move and doesn't sue the ACC. Clemson likely does the same.
Everyone cheers and thinks that it sounds like teams found a way to get out of the ACC, but I'd wager it will be only for teams that are moving to the SEC, since that is the only scenario in which ESPN doesn't sue the ACC for projected lost revenue through the remainder of the contract. I think the next two after that would be UNC paired with NC St. to the SEC. That puts them at an even 20 schools. Unfortunately, that means we're still screwed, as we're probably haven't been on the SEC's Xmas card list after turning them down many years ago.
If you look at the puzzle pieces, this picture should come together.
First, as
@Gocanes1990 said, the higher ups are saying we don't have the money to pay the acc exit fee and buy back the media rights. No reason to doubt this is true. We can't afford a $350 million buyout, but the legislatures for the state public schools can easily shift state money to pay the buyouts or find other ways out.
Second, to the best of anyone's knowledge, the ESPN- ACC deal says that as long as the number of teams doesn't drop below 15, the deal stays as-is and ESPN can't lower the payouts. Acc added 3 teams that don't get any revenue shares. If the 4 aforementioned teams leave for the SEC, we are at 14 teams. So that gives 2 options: 1) either add another team or 2) give ESPN the ability renegotiate the contract.
My guess is we'd get another surprise team added to the ACC (my guess is UCONN). 15 teams means ESPN has to keep the deal. If all 4 teams that leave for SEC negotiate the buyback of media rights and exit fee averages 300 million each, that means 1.2 billion will be shared between the acc teams. That comes out to 80 million to each acc team if evenly distributed (which it won't be because of partial shares, UM would get more). It's not ideal but it's something I guess.
Some think there is no way espn would pick up the contract in 2028. I don't think they appreciate how much tv deals have ballooned since the ACC signed the agreement. The current deal has the ACC making less than what the Pac12 would have made through 2029. It's still an incredible bargain for espn, even without UNC, NC St, Clemson, and FSU.
The new ACC
Miami
Pitt
UVA
VT
Syracuse
BC
Duke
Wake Forest
GT
Louisville
Stanford
SMU
Cal
UCONN
ND
I think espn would extend the current deal for that lineup, which would make it the lowest paid "major" conference. So it's nice that people are posting all the great news from Warchant, but I don't give a **** about FSU. Taking off the "orange and green glasses"*, it doesn't look good for UM.
*Rad used nearly this exact phrase a few days ago when talking about how good the ACC is for UM when looked at through "orange and green glasses." The signs are all there.
