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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

canes518 said:
He’s had a lot of good information and does have contacts in B1G.
I think one of the issues is that circumstances change such as OR/WA taking a reduced share, which causes a ripple effect and changes the calculations/timeline for other schools like Miami.
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But does this dude actually have any kind of track record of being right? It seems he posts a lot of LONG posts with a lot of "information" but nothing has really happened. It's all just speculation. At one point we were a lock for B1G. Now we're an afterthought. If we were a lock before UO/UW, I could understand timeline changing, but why would we suddenly be 3rd, 4th, 5th on the list? Makes zero sense to me. UO/UW offering aren't exactly offering them the same thing Miami would, so it's not like they replaced us. Why would FSU suddenly jump us? Just because they are the ones making the public noise? USC/UCLA was done in the dark. Texas/OU was done fairly quietly. I think very few people know what's actually going on.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
My prediction

I expect the P2s to each take 2 teams.

FSU and ND to B1G
Clemson and UNC to SEC

The negotiatied buyout will be about 350 million. Between the 3 departing acc teams, that adds up to a little over a billion to be distributed to the remaining acc teams.

Now let's assume the conference change happens in 2025.
With those other schools gone and the new acc teams coming in for 30% (Stanford, Cal) or free (SMU) for seven years, that means the payout per school goes way up.

When you add in the billion extra and the discounted distribution for the new acc teams, the expected payout per year for the original 11 acc teams will be about 72-75 million per year

(Note that this article says 66 million per team , but thats equally distributed among 15 teams, they aren't factoring in the lower amounts to the new teams for the first 7 years)

https://www.tomahawknation.com/2024...realignment-motion-to-dismiss-gor-leon-county

But wait, there's more. The acc agreed to have performance based revenue, so its possible that the top teams get in the 80+ million per year range.

So through 2027, the top ACC teams could make considerably more than their P2 counterparts.

In 2027, espn has the option to pick up the contract through 2036. With pretty much only UM having any name recognition in the acc and possibly making 80 million per year, espn is dropkick the acc out the door. That means GOR is over. P2 will do another round of expansion and UM gets picked up by the B1G.

And to be honest, if it works out this way, then I have to tip my hat to Rad for playing 4D chess and outsmarting me and everyone else. The top teams in the acc (my guess is UM, Pitt, VT will be the top teams) potentially get 20-30 million more than the top teams in the SEC or B1G (for a couple years at least) , the new 5+7 playoff format means that the relative weakness of the acc doesn't really matter, and we end up in the B1G only 3 years after the trio of teams left, except we didn't have to pay 350 million to get out early like FSU, UNC and Clemson. Well played Rad, well played.
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ND has to pay a penalty too
 
ssvir said:
You aren't considering the benefit of future AAU status for FSU in the B10 .... literally hundreds of millions in research money.
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While I see becoming AAU as giving them another potential option, I still think IF they have the choice it will be SEC.
 
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coffeecane said:
I think they prefer to play in the south. The SEC is still considered the gold standard down here. Obviously I don't know anything and it's my opinion.
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I think its the opposite. They don't want to be competing in the south and want the conference money, Olympic sports, academic prestige, and AAU grant money. Will always be the little brother to the "flagship school" if they go to the SEC.
 
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Yeah for sure there are many factors that none of us really know. Can't wait to see how it all falls out. As long as we get out without getting raped I'll be happy.
 
Rickd said:
WRONG. The only money that goes to the schools is the ACC exit fee which is in the bylaws and is $120M per school. Any GOR buyback that is negotiated WITH ESPN ... goes to ESPN ONLY and has nothing to do with the schools.
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You have it exactly backwards. FSUs media rights belong to the ACC. It's why it is called the acc grant of rights, not the espn grant of rights. It's why fsu is suing the acc, not espn. That was the whole point of the GOR after Maryland left. If an ACC team leaves for another conference, the acc still gets media revenue from all home games through 2036. In 2027, Espn has the option to extend the tv deal through 2036. If espn doesn't pick up the option, the acc still owns the home game media rights of all acc teams through 2036.

ACC signed the tv deal with espn on behalf of all the teams, which granted the acc the right to negotiate the media deal (hence the term "grant of rights) . Acc says it values FSUs media rights through 2036 at 572 million, which belongs to the conference. The teams that want to leave will have to negotiate that price with the acc. Separate from that is the exit penalty, which is estimated at $130 million (3 times operating fees, that is phrase written in the GOR, not a set amount of 120 or 130 million). That's what the acc pays to espn for an acc team exiting the conference. All the rest, the 572 million, goes to the ACC.
 
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So it looks like we may play in a conference that looks much like the old Big East? Mario better build a monster and go undefeated every year…….
 
TpaBayFlyFisher said:
So it looks like we may play in a conference that looks much like the old Big East? Mario better build a monster and go undefeated every year…….
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Won't matter at all when the SEC and B1G govern their own playoff. No one outside their bubble will be included

End goal will be the conferences rid themselves of programs like Vanderbilt, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, etc. in favor of Miami, UNC, Clemson, etc whoever is left over... but when that takes place.. who knows. It'll make it's way to an NFL 2 conference format before all is said and done.
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
You have it exactly backwards. FSUs media rights belong to the ACC. It's why it is called the acc grant of rights, not the espn grant of rights. It's why fsu is suing the acc, not espn. That was the whole point of the GOR after Maryland left. If an ACC team leaves for another conference, the acc still gets media revenue from all home games through 2036. In 2027, Espn has the option to extend the tv deal through 2036. If espn doesn't pick up the option, the acc still owns the home game media rights of all acc teams through 2036.

ACC signed the tv deal with espn on behalf of all the teams, which granted the acc the right to negotiate the media deal (hence the term "grant of rights) . Acc says it values FSUs media rights through 2036 at 572 million, which belongs to the conference. The teams that want to leave will have to negotiate that price with the acc. Separate from that is the exit penalty, which is estimated at $130 million (3 times operating fees, that is phrase written in the GOR, not a set amount of 120 or 130 million). That's what the acc pays to espn for an acc team exiting the conference. All the rest, the 572 million, goes to the ACC.you are incorrect!
Handsome Squidbum said:
You have it exactly backwards. FSUs media rights belong to the ACC. It's why it is called the acc grant of rights, not the espn grant of rights. It's why fsu is suing the acc, not espn. That was the whole point of the GOR after Maryland left. If an ACC team leaves for another conference, the acc still gets media revenue from all home games through 2036. In 2027, Espn has the option to extend the tv deal through 2036. If espn doesn't pick up the option, the acc still owns the home game media rights of all acc teams through 2036.

ACC signed the tv deal with espn on behalf of all the teams, which granted the acc the right to negotiate the media deal (hence the term "grant of rights) . Acc says it values FSUs media rights through 2036 at 572 million, which belongs to the conference. The teams that want to leave will have to negotiate that price with the acc. Separate from that is the exit penalty, which is estimated at $130 million (3 times operating fees, that is phrase written in the GOR, not a set amount of 120 or 130 million). That's what the acc pays to espn for an acc team exiting the conference. All the rest, the 572 million, goes to the ACC.
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you are incorrect across the board. ESPN was granted the rights by the ACC and owns them. The question is for how long - goal is to have it confirmed that the GOR is concurrent with the existing ESPN contract through 2027.
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CreativeCane said:
But does this dude actually have any kind of track record of being right? It seems he posts a lot of LONG posts with a lot of "information" but nothing has really happened. It's all just speculation. At one point we were a lock for B1G. Now we're an afterthought. If we were a lock before UO/UW, I could understand timeline changing, but why would we suddenly be 3rd, 4th, 5th on the list? Makes zero sense to me. UO/UW offering aren't exactly offering them the same thing Miami would, so it's not like they replaced us. Why would FSU suddenly jump us? Just because they are the ones making the public noise? USC/UCLA was done in the dark. Texas/OU was done fairly quietly. I think very few people know what's actually going on.
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You have a lot of homework to do. Lucky for you, you have a thread full of 700 pages that answers those questions.
 
JayCane20 said:
Won't matter at all when the SEC and B1G govern their own playoff. No one outside their bubble will be included

End goal will be the conferences rid themselves of programs like Vanderbilt, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, etc. in favor of Miami, UNC, Clemson, etc whoever is left over... but when that takes place.. who knows. It'll make it's way to an NFL 2 conference format before all is said and done.
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I agree about NFL analogy; however, not sure it’ll be easy to remove those programs. I would remove those ****** programs but not sure how realistic it is.
 
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Tony4Canes said:
Even NFL has bad teams
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If there's 32 or 36 teams in the P2 in college and they all have to play each other or play 10 of their 12 games against those schools... a lot of them will be "bad"

Everyone can't go 8-4 or better. You would be seeing a typical quality program losing 7-8-9-10 games. That could very easily end up being Miami in this scenario if we make it to be included in this Power 2 conferences.

Or they could choose to just leave Northwestern, Indiana, etc. and let everyone gang up on them and cushion their win totals to keep everyone else somewhat happy.
 
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