This is what I'm hoping is the minimal outcome - just that the GOR extension gets thrown out, so will only be enforceable until June 30th, 2027 (before the 2027 CFB season).
Cost to leave then would be:
- Exit Fee = 3* Distribution = $130M.
- GOR = 2* Distribution (2025, 2026)= $87M. (The Grant of Rights expires June 30, 2027 in this scenario - so doesn't include the 2027 CFB season)
So, if this were the case I think at worst, the total cost to exit starting in 2025 season would be $217M.
But given most settlements for conference exit end up being like paying 2/3rd, I think It's realistic to negotiate this down to at least like $145M or less. Now, does this make sense to pay in order to get out beginning in the 2025 CFB season? Absolutely Yes.
Oregon and Washington basically just agreed to half shares in the Big10 until 2030. That's a minimum value of about 7*$30M= $210M. So that is essentially what those 2 programs are saying they were willing to pay to get in to the Big10. And that was WITHOUT having to fight any GOR/EXIT fee. And for us we'd be paying $145M to get out of 12 more years of a GOR. That's $12M/yr until 2036. The difference in Big10 Payout and ACC payout is expected to easily be >$25M/yr by 2030.