- Joined
- Dec 22, 2011
- Messages
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A faculty member used the word "impulsive" to describe Julio. I just looked at it again on my phone to make sure I got it right. Also said Rudy has been "glaringly silent" on this issue.
So, yeah, as much as I'd love to report pie-in-the-sky unity and a clarity of negotiating positions, I really don't think that the people who have participated and/or collaborated on decisions over the past two years (Julio, Joe, Rudy, and/or Dan) are all pulling their oars in the same direction right now. Again, I have no problem with the GENERAL issue of expansion if we are able to get concessions in the process of supporting it.
I think that Julio is looking at this heavily from an academic angle. Why would the ACC NOT WANT Stanford & Cal? That's a tremendous academic win, right?
And I think Dan knows the situation well, and will try to get whatever he can out of this if Frenk decides what I expect him to decide.
I just laugh at all the know-nothings who act like everything is binary. As if Dan would just quit his job because Julio votes his conscience (right or wrong). As if there are no other ways out of the ACC, and that by taking three more schools (we have NO IDEA when they would get voting rights, but likely next August) we are somehow permanently stuck in the ACC.
Good lord, we have some people who have never spent a day in the big business world analyzing and making deals. And, sure, some of our posters may be great small businessmen, they may have built their own local busineses, or they may be talented salesmen.
But this ACC mess has been going on for a year. At this point, people know who needs to jump to the Big 10/SEC to make more money, vs. who will never get their own offers to do so. Look, I'm no fan of "Es before Cs" (expansions before contractions), but it's not a fatal blow either. There are still a half-dozen different plays to be made, but our most pessimistic porsters have turned "Miami voting in favor of Stanford-Cal-SMU" into the worst thing on the planet since Chamberlain allowed Hitler to annex the Sudetenland.
I have already laid out my predictions. Anyone can check my math after all of the drama unfolds.
1. I believe the Big 10 is done FOR NOW with 4 teams coming aboard in 2024. They will have 2.5 years to prepare for (what I believe to be) the MOST LIKELY end-game of 6 additional teams by 2026, which is the first year of the NEW contract to broadcast the post-season (which is expanding to 12 teams sooner than the new TV contract). If the Big 10 and the SEC want to ice any other conferences out of the post-season, they at least need to announce an INTENTION to get bigger. So it doesn't all have to take place immediately, but everyone should know the score soon.
2. If the Big 10 adds 6 more teams, a lot will turn on the geography. While there was a previously-announced "no divisions" approach, this was based on only USC and UCLA joining the Big 10. Now that Washington-Oregon bring the number to 18, we might see a revisitation of pod play, particularly give the expression of concern for travel costs by Washington-Oregon. Given the current makeup, the 6-team pod that makes the most sense is USC-UCLA-Washington-Oregon-Nebraska-Minnesota. This would also facilitate a 6-team addition in 2026, and would give the Big 10 time to plan.
3. If the Big 10 expansion will be 6 teams, it would turn on two primary issues, whether Notre Dame is willing to join a conference, and whether the SEC expands. We know that F$U covets the SEC, and maybe Clemson does too. So the real question becomes how many slots are available at the Big 2 and whether they are all east coast teams or Stanford/Cal sneak into the mix. Going SOLELY by TV viewership (not just "size" of TV market), it could be 8 eastern teams that get bids, but it's possible that Stanford-Cal snipe the last 2 spots.
4. My best guess is that the SEC takes 2-4 teams and the Big 10 takes 6. I think the SEC would consider taking F$U, Clemson, UNC, and UVa or VaTech, largely in that order. I think the Big 10 will consider Notre Dame, F$U, Clemson, Miami, UNC, UVa, VaTech, GaTech, Stanford, and Cal, largely in that order. I think the Big 12 would pick up most of what is left (no guarantees for BC, Syracuse, or Wake).
Make no mistake, this is about locking up as many of the best content properties (colleges) and TV eyeballs as possible. It is not about academics or geography or culture. It will be limited by how much the respective networks are able to spend, and how many timeslots they have to fill. The titanic fight that is brewing is whether ESPN retains, or the Fox rebel alliance steals, the college football playoff games beginning in 2026.
