Empirical Cane
We are what we repeatedly do.
- Joined
- Sep 3, 2018
- Messages
- 33,672
I don’t know but government doesn’t always function logically because of politics and constituencies. That’s the driver.So they make them sink together? If the ACC is on the verge of collapse and UVA has an invite to the SEC but VT doesn't, then the VA legislators make them both sit out?
What would they do then?
Not when they are going to 20-24 and the sec will add teams despite their public statements but stress is you wantWell that's a bit unsettling.
They need a Florida school and a Texas school.
We did not hire Rad so we could end up becoming the biggest baddest Mid-major in College Football.Well that's a bit unsettling.
Wow. Just wow.Our ACC deal looks better than what Oregon and Washington got from the B1G. 30 mil a year increasing by 1 million a year until the TV contact runs out. If we left the ACC we would be worse off plus in massive debt for a decade.
I don't see the Big12 being anything but a renewed conference no longer dependent on 2 teams to matter. ACC is still better. The rest is hype.
The best thing we can do is make the ACC stronger.
Obviously ND but that won't happen. Adding Stanford and Cal makes sense academically. And they have had good storied programs. Plus that's good recruiting ground out there.
Also I don't care if FSU leaves. They'll be in huge debt that they won't pay off for decades and they would only be payed pennies on the dollar. I look forward to them dropping from the big 3.
I don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.Wow. Just wow.
NEGATIVE.I don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.
Thank you for taking the time to show your rationale.Just some math for ESPN.
- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.
So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.
NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).
THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.
From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...
In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.
So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
Ain’t no booty saving us if we were sentenced to death by years more of ACC affiliation.
I think that’s the reason why the acc schools may announce before August 15 even if you don’t think you can make it to the new homes for two years or more, because they just don’t wanna have the negative recruiting at a minimumI don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.
Nice work, Cali!Just some math for ESPN.
- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.
So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.
NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).
THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.
From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...
In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.
So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
Is there a risk of breach of contract simply by announcing that??? Anyone???I think that’s the reason why the acc schools may announce before August 15 even if you don’t think you can make it to the new homes for two years or more, because they just don’t wanna have the negative recruiting at a minimum
And you know there are power people who wield money and influence who are connected to those institutions and are in their ears.Never underestimate the pettiness of lawmakers
It is NOT UNSETTLING REGARDING THE ASSESSMENT OF UM. If you read the index the S classification is for schools evaluated at a FULL MEDIA SHARE FOR THE B10. THAT IS MIAMI.Well that's a bit unsettling.