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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread(Its still personal)

Ispyin said:
I respect a lot of his posts, especially when it’s directly in the Big Ten, and I also realize that he’s just throwing scenarios out to some degree, but I think it’s delusional to think that schools 3 to 7 would agree to two schools leaving for a reach around.

What day you @Cane & Able
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My sense isn't that he thinks those scenarios could happen, but rather what would "need" to happen in order for the ACC to survive, no matter how unlikely it may be.
 
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This entire thing, even if I’m confident Miami is going to be fine, makes fyre festival seem like Shakespeare in the park

Kyle Mooney Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live
 
Tad Footeball said:
We're applying the "ESPN is broke" narrative a little too generously/aggressively here in some instances. They suck and they're not being managed properly but they're still profitable and everything goes out the window in relation to live action sports rights. ****, they'll probably still be owned by the Mouse and will bid a trazillion dollars on the next availabile World Cup.
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Broke is probably too strong but they have significant financial hurdles that I can see them being ok with making a deal with the ACC grant of rights.
 
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Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
 
aleahy said:
Broke is probably too strong but they have significant financial hurdles that I can see them being ok with making a deal with the ACC grant of rights.
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ESECPN has been laying off people left and right. Some big names to boot. With the broadcast networks heavily involved, they may not have a lot of leverage left.
 
Idk 10% as much as many on here but SEC seems like the natural fit for FSU, Clemson, VT, and Miami at this point to compete with the new Big 10

(hope it's big 10 though so Miami plays up here regularly)
 
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aleahy said:
I’m not sure I understand what you mean. ESPN owns this grant of rights. They also just signed an SEC contract they might not be able to afford. I can definitely see them negotiating out of this ACC deal.
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But they need willing partners and the question is are there enough willing partners in the ACC. Just b/c Clemson, Miami and FSU want out doesnt mean that ESPN gets to rip up the contract with all of the ACC teams. I don't know what the rules are for modifying an existing contract, but I am sure it would require at least half of the teams in the league to agree to it.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
Wouldn't that make them less likely to negotiate? Especially if schools are acting desperate to leave.

Here's what I see.

ESPN, the "journalist" are low on money

ESPN pundits are constantly whipping up hysteria trying to push realignment.

ESPN makes 150 million per ACC school that decides to leave.
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SyracuseMiami said:
My sense isn't that he thinks those scenarios could happen, but rather what would "need" to happen in order for the ACC to survive, no matter how unlikely it may be.
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He said ... IF THE TEAMS IN THE ACC THINK THEY ARE BETTER OFF REMAINING IN THE ACC THEY ARE WRONG ... HOWEVER THESE ARE THE OPTIONS THAT THEY COULD EVALUATE IN ORDER TO REMAIN ALIVE ... NOT THRIVING BUT ALIVE.
 
Shogungts said:
But they need willing partners and the question is are there enough willing partners in the ACC. Just b/c Clemson, Miami and FSU want out doesnt mean that ESPN gets to rip up the contract with all of the ACC teams. I don't know what the rules are for modifying an existing contract, but I am sure it would require at least half of the teams in the league to agree to it.
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I think they are at the point that half the teams would modify. And I don’t think ESPN has a problem with it.
 
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Money eventually corrupts everything, and it’s happening to college football right before our very eyes. For most of our lives, college football was one of the only, maybe the only “pure” sport we had left. Regional identities, rivalries, school pride, are all being thrown out like yesterday’s trash. I guess it was inevitable, and I think the only thing that surprises me is how quickly this happened.
[/QUOTE]
Pure when? When Fred Taylor was paid by UGA then went to UF is own words. Always a myth. Man just like the food but dont wanna know how its cooked. Now they know and they barfing
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
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You could also argue FOX/CBS/NBC doesn’t have to eat that much extra if part of the deal for 4 schools to join the BIG10 is that ESPN joins the bunch to televise BIG10 games (focused more on the 4 previous ACC schools). I feel like that investment (the 4 BIG10 + 2 SEC schools transferring from the ACC, which are most likely the ones holding the conference up (Clemson, FSU, Miami, VT, UNC and UVA / Louisville)) makes more sense then the 6 strong + 8 weak ACC teams that currently exist (which doesn’t even include ND at the moment). ND can just go back to being fully Independent and the math makes sense. No
 
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The only team making noise is FSU. All the other ACC schools are keeping it under wraps. There is a lot going on being the scenes.
To me, the big question is have they got the 8th team to vote to fold the conference?
 
calinative umstudent said:
Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
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This is a lot, but as far as I can tell you are only taking payouts into consideration, not how much revenue ESPN (or anyone else is making). As a very simple example, you can't just say if the ACC went away tomorrow that ESPN would 'save $560M' ($40M x 14 schools) b/c presumably ESPN is making a net profit on televising ACC games.

Is there a path where ESPN could pay Clemson, Miami, FSU, etc more money and still make additional profits b/c they no longer need to pay schools like Duke $40M a year? Maybe, but w/o knowing their take (or projected take) it is hard to do those calculations. They would also need to be able to get out of paying the schools not going to greener pastures.
 
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