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As we get ready for the 65th edition of the long and storied rivalry that is Miami-FSU, we decided to bring back the Roundtable series to see what our writers are thinking heading into "The Big One". Let's dig into it.
Q1: Miami is coming of a ranked road win vs. Louisville and are considered the heavy favorite against FSU (-11 as of this writing). How are you feeling about the team in general so far this season heading into Saturday's showdown?
Stefan Adams: Miami hasn’t done anything unexpected in my opinion by rolling their first two opponents; I didn’t see Louisville as much of a challenge considering they brought back mostly the same defense that got smoked by Dan Enos. The real difference is having a QB like D’Eriq King that you know is going to come to every game prepared, perform in clutch moments, and limit turnovers. In just two weeks time, we’ve already seen the tangible effects of that, and it gives everybody else around him so much more confidence. While I am somewhat nervous about a letdown game at some point because of this team’s recent history, I cannot deny that things feel different with King.
Lance Roffers: Having a QB who is more concerned with doing whatever it takes to win games than he is with his dance moves gives me more confidence than I have had in years. This is an ownership from the players that has been missing and you can see that returning a bit. Maybe Ed Reed has had an influence, or maybe the Canes have just found the right mix of players, but this feels like a team able to handle success a lot more than previous iterations.
Matt Suero: I am feeling incredibly confident in this version of Miami through two games. Louisville was supposed to be the letdown game, the game we had seen Miami lose far too many times in recent memory. Finally, they were able to go on the road and beat a less talented team the way that they are supposed to. It seems that the team is playing with a lot of confidence and that goes a long way.
Bill (CanesLegacy): I’m feeling pretty good about the Canes right now. They’ve looked a little better than what I was expecting coming into the year, especially offensively. Rhett Lashlee is as good as advertised and being paired with D’Eriq King makes this team a must-watch. I think defensively this team has something to prove heading into FSU and that could spell disaster for the Noles.
Q2: The Noles got off to a slow start in losing to Georgia Tech and new head coach Mike Norvell will not be coaching this game because of contracting COVID-19. What are your thoughts on FSU's head coach and program right now?
Stefan: I actually liked Norvell at Memphis, and under normal circumstances if the program was on solid footing in Tallahassee, I think he could have been a good coach for the Noles. But I think, at this point, the situation is so dire at FSU that they need a truly great coach to get them out of this mess; I’m not sure Norvell is that guy. Then you have all the issues over the offseason that are too numerous to list in what was supposed to be the honeymoon phase of this relationship. The players pretty clearly aren’t buying in and transfers have ravaged the roster. FSU is quite simply in full rebuild mode right now.
Lance: The success rate of mid-major coaches who didn't build the program they came from into a winner, but rather inherited an up-and-coming program from a coach who left for a bigger job, is quite low. Norvell has had some players flourish in specific roles and he runs a modern offense, but this is supposed to be the honeymoon recruiting class and it is marginal at best. He has had problems with players not taking kindly to his leadership and even allegations of lying to the media about team meetings. The program feels like it is beginning the Dark Ages that Miami finally seems to be emerging from.
Matt: Mike Norvell’s first nine months as the head man at Florida State has been abysmal. From fake meetings to poor discussions of race relations, terrible recruiting, not being able to properly install his system on either side of the ball due to COVID, and then becoming the first major head coach to actually contract COVID, it has been a very ugly start to the Norvell era. All of those issues culminated in the loss to Georgia Tech and FSU seems to be approaching a new low for their program.
Bill: Dumpster fire. That may be an understatement too. The FSU program is in free fall after the Willie Taggart fiasco and now a very rough start to the Norvell era. Losing to GT with a true freshman QB who your head coach said wasn’t good enough adds yet another layer of embarrassment. They have some talented guys on the roster, but there are glaring holes and depth issues at some critical positions. Norvell catching COVID and having to miss the game is the most FSU thing in 2020.
Q3: What have you seen from Miami that makes you confident the Canes will win against FSU?
Stefan: Aside from the previously discussed King, one thing I’ve loved to see that I think is different from past versions of Miami and makes me confident is the offensive coordinator actually scheming players open instead of just relying on superior athleticism to win matchups all the time; Rhett Lashlee most notably did this on Jaylan Knighton’s 75-yard touchdown catch vs. Louisville. We’ve also seen Lashlee show his ability to recognize weaknesses in his opponent and make effective adjustments at halftime, as Miami has owned the third quarter and scored on all six of their drives (34 total points) in that critical stanza this year.
Lance: I see a team with a plan. Against UAB, Miami exploited the running game based on what the defense did. Against Louisville, they attacked in the passing game. In the game against Florida State, expect Miami to press their advantages and keep attacking until FSU folds.
Matt: Miami is simply the more talented team by a pretty wide margin, and they have a quarterback that the entire team can trust and rally behind. The entire team is feeding off of D’Eriq King’s confidence and charisma. He has taken over the locker room and has become the heart and soul of the team.
Bill: Lashlee and King are what has me most confident about not just the FSU game, but the team in general. These two guys are here to win and they’ll see this as an opportunity to put on a show against a demoralized rival. I think the offense will make strides every week as they continue to build out the playbook and increase reps. There’s no reason to believe this offense won’t make another jump heading into Week 3.
Q4: What have you seen from UM that makes you concerned the Canes might lose against FSU?
Stefan: With receivers consistently running free on the back end, Miami’s secondary has been near the bottom of the nation in defending the pass through two weeks in 2020, ceding 256 ypg through the air to opposing passers. On the flip side, FSU’s passing game was really the only bright spot for the team in 2019 at 34th in the country with 267.6 ypg. Without a real replacement for Cam Akers in the run game, FSU will absolutely need to rely on QB James Blackman, WR Tamorrion Terry, and the pass even more in 2020 to have a chance in this game. Also, the Canes shut down the Noles’ passing game last season largely on the strength of 9 sacks from their pass rush, but UM is replacing their top 4 edge rushers from last season. While there is still talent at DE, if Miami’s pass rush takes a step back, that provides more of a window of opportunity for Blackman and Terry to make plays against a questionable UM secondary.
Lance: History. Who as a Miami fan can really feel comfortable with anything from this program based on the past 15 years? Miami has made a habit of losing games they shouldn't and this would be the ultimate "Miami game" to go out and lose at a time when they have positive press and thoughts from fans.
Matt: Miami has a tendency to let you down as soon as you get your hopes up. We have seen this consistently over the past few years from Pitt in 2017, Virginia in 2018, and FIU last season. This will be a big test because Miami is the more talented team, ranked #12, and getting a lot of love from the national media. This week will show us how much King’s leadership has affected the team.
Bill: All the hype Miami is getting nationally has me concerned going into FSU. We’ve seen it time and time again with this program over the past 15 years, a big win followed by a letdown against a lesser opponent. This is their chance to show that this team is different in that they can handle everyone patting them on the back and come out fired up to lay a whooping on their rival.
Q5: Who in particular needs to step up for Miami to win?
Stefan: Just like in previous years, there’s a case to be made that this game is going to be won or lost at the line of scrimmage. That’s where DE Quincy Roche comes in and I would love to see him put his stamp on this rivalry before a national audience in this one. Roche has had a productive first two games at UM with 3.5 TFL and 1 sack, and FSU might be the worst offensive line he’ll see all season. If Roche and the rest of the D-Line are harassing Blackman all day, Blackman won’t have time to look downfield for Terry for the big play, while also opening up tons of opportunities for UM to get turnovers and shorten the field for their offense.
Lance: D'Eriq King needs to play well in every game for Miami to have a chance to win. They aren't good enough to overcome poor QB play consistently. DJ Ivey also needs to have a game that gets him confident and allows fans to find a new whipping boy.
Matt: I have been saying since the season preview roundtable that Miami needs a receiver to step up. Through two games, we have yet to see a player step up as the alpha of that room. Miami needs a number one receiver to emerge if this offense is going to take the next step. My pick is Jeremiah Payton if he is available.
Bill: Any WR at this point whether that's Dee Wiggins, Mark Pope, Mike Harley, Jeremiah Payton, or one of the freshmen. This has been an average group at best through 2 weeks, and last week’s drops vs. Louisville was a terrible look. Say what you will about FSU, but their DB room is filled with highly recruited guys that will be looking to shut down Miami’s WR’s and make life difficult on D’Eriq King.
Q6: What FSU player does Miami have to stop in order to win?
Stefan: The most talented player on FSU is considered to be DT Marvin Wilson, and for good reason. If allowed, Wilson can be a gameplan wrecker because of his ability to both shut down the run and also rush the passer from the interior. Wilson can change the dynamics of the game on his own, so Miami needs to focus on limiting his impact just like they did last season. If the Canes are successful, it could be a long day for the FSU defense.
Lance: Always the QB in football. James Blackman needs to be hit and rattled as soon as possible. From there, the whole team will fold.
Matt: Florida State lacks fire power on their offense, especially when compared to what they have had in the past few seasons. The most explosive player on their offense, and perhaps their only explosive player, is Tamorrion Terry. Terry is a deep threat and can challenge a defense vertically. Miami needs to take away the big play from Terry because FSU will have a difficult time consistently sustaining drives against Miami otherwise.
Bill: Tamorrion Terry. FSU shouldn’t be able to march up and down the field against Miami’s defense, so shutting down the big play will be critical. Terry is the only player on FSU’s offense capable of delivering a homerun and I expect Blake Baker to scheme against him. That could mean bracketing with Al Blades and Bubba Bolden/Gurvan Hall, but I would keep DJ Ivey and Te’Cory Couch away from Terry. FSU’s other WR’s don’t scare me.
Q7: What would a win against FSU mean for Manny Diaz's tenure at Miami and for the program in general?
Stefan: It’s always huge, no question about it. These two programs are headed in different directions right now and this is Miami’s perfect chance to continue their winning streak in the series, kick FSU even further down into the depths, and begin to establish dominance in the state. Also, this game is huge for recruiting every year, as the state’s best program during a particular cycle always ends up reaping the benefits. Miami is seen as ahead of FSU right now, so Manny has to keep that perception going by downing Norvell’s Noles in his first year at the helm.
Lance: It would help Diaz’s tenure, but at this point, FSU is so down that the expectation is Miami wins this game handily. I'm not giving out too much praise for winning a game Miami should win.
Matt: A win against Florida State is always a shot in the arm for the program even when they are down, as they have been the past few years. This is Miami’s chance to really make a statement and show where they stand in the college football landscape, while also showing recruits how far Florida State has fallen. A dominant and convincing win would be enormous.
Bill: A close win against FSU this week doesn’t really move the needle in terms of Manny’s tenure at Miami. FSU is a program that's in shambles right now and is in no way a quality win. However, if Miami goes out and demolishes FSU, that is something Manny can hang his hat on out on the recruiting trail. In terms of the program in general, this week is another opportunity for Miami to further distance themselves from the Seminoles when it comes to the pecking order in Florida.
Q8: Prediction time: How does this game end up going? (include a score prediction)
Stefan: The way I see it, the key to the game is this: to win, the Canes just have to not help the Seminoles' offense out. FSU struggles sustaining long drives due to inconsistent offensive line play, but they are opportunistic. If Miami starts getting careless with the ball on offense or starts blowing coverages on defense, FSU has the talent to make them pay. But, if Miami protects the football and wins the field position battle, I don't see any way FSU can score enough to win this game. I see a close game in the first half, with UM scoring a TD early in the fourth quarter to really pull away. 31-14, Miami.
Lance: Miami finds a fired up opponent early and they will be fake tough to start. From there, after Miami hits a few plays against them, you will see chirping and dirty plays from Florida State before Miami slowly pulls away. 41-21, Miami.
Matt: Miami is the more talented team, they are playing better, they are playing with more confidence, they have better leaders, and they seem to be the better coached team. This game should not be close. Miami will show that they have turned a corner under D’Eriq King’s leadership and win easily. 38-13, Miami.
Bill: I’m expecting FSU to come out fired up and give Miami their best shot early. FSU will throw the kitchen sink at UM on both sides of the ball. This is one of the greatest rivalries in college football and those games tend to be closer than most think. I don't think FSU can hang with Miami for 4 quarters, though, and I see UM pulling away early in the 4th quarter. My score prediction is 34-20, Miami.
Q1: Miami is coming of a ranked road win vs. Louisville and are considered the heavy favorite against FSU (-11 as of this writing). How are you feeling about the team in general so far this season heading into Saturday's showdown?
Stefan Adams: Miami hasn’t done anything unexpected in my opinion by rolling their first two opponents; I didn’t see Louisville as much of a challenge considering they brought back mostly the same defense that got smoked by Dan Enos. The real difference is having a QB like D’Eriq King that you know is going to come to every game prepared, perform in clutch moments, and limit turnovers. In just two weeks time, we’ve already seen the tangible effects of that, and it gives everybody else around him so much more confidence. While I am somewhat nervous about a letdown game at some point because of this team’s recent history, I cannot deny that things feel different with King.
Lance Roffers: Having a QB who is more concerned with doing whatever it takes to win games than he is with his dance moves gives me more confidence than I have had in years. This is an ownership from the players that has been missing and you can see that returning a bit. Maybe Ed Reed has had an influence, or maybe the Canes have just found the right mix of players, but this feels like a team able to handle success a lot more than previous iterations.
Matt Suero: I am feeling incredibly confident in this version of Miami through two games. Louisville was supposed to be the letdown game, the game we had seen Miami lose far too many times in recent memory. Finally, they were able to go on the road and beat a less talented team the way that they are supposed to. It seems that the team is playing with a lot of confidence and that goes a long way.
Bill (CanesLegacy): I’m feeling pretty good about the Canes right now. They’ve looked a little better than what I was expecting coming into the year, especially offensively. Rhett Lashlee is as good as advertised and being paired with D’Eriq King makes this team a must-watch. I think defensively this team has something to prove heading into FSU and that could spell disaster for the Noles.
Q2: The Noles got off to a slow start in losing to Georgia Tech and new head coach Mike Norvell will not be coaching this game because of contracting COVID-19. What are your thoughts on FSU's head coach and program right now?
Stefan: I actually liked Norvell at Memphis, and under normal circumstances if the program was on solid footing in Tallahassee, I think he could have been a good coach for the Noles. But I think, at this point, the situation is so dire at FSU that they need a truly great coach to get them out of this mess; I’m not sure Norvell is that guy. Then you have all the issues over the offseason that are too numerous to list in what was supposed to be the honeymoon phase of this relationship. The players pretty clearly aren’t buying in and transfers have ravaged the roster. FSU is quite simply in full rebuild mode right now.
Lance: The success rate of mid-major coaches who didn't build the program they came from into a winner, but rather inherited an up-and-coming program from a coach who left for a bigger job, is quite low. Norvell has had some players flourish in specific roles and he runs a modern offense, but this is supposed to be the honeymoon recruiting class and it is marginal at best. He has had problems with players not taking kindly to his leadership and even allegations of lying to the media about team meetings. The program feels like it is beginning the Dark Ages that Miami finally seems to be emerging from.
Matt: Mike Norvell’s first nine months as the head man at Florida State has been abysmal. From fake meetings to poor discussions of race relations, terrible recruiting, not being able to properly install his system on either side of the ball due to COVID, and then becoming the first major head coach to actually contract COVID, it has been a very ugly start to the Norvell era. All of those issues culminated in the loss to Georgia Tech and FSU seems to be approaching a new low for their program.
Bill: Dumpster fire. That may be an understatement too. The FSU program is in free fall after the Willie Taggart fiasco and now a very rough start to the Norvell era. Losing to GT with a true freshman QB who your head coach said wasn’t good enough adds yet another layer of embarrassment. They have some talented guys on the roster, but there are glaring holes and depth issues at some critical positions. Norvell catching COVID and having to miss the game is the most FSU thing in 2020.
Q3: What have you seen from Miami that makes you confident the Canes will win against FSU?
Stefan: Aside from the previously discussed King, one thing I’ve loved to see that I think is different from past versions of Miami and makes me confident is the offensive coordinator actually scheming players open instead of just relying on superior athleticism to win matchups all the time; Rhett Lashlee most notably did this on Jaylan Knighton’s 75-yard touchdown catch vs. Louisville. We’ve also seen Lashlee show his ability to recognize weaknesses in his opponent and make effective adjustments at halftime, as Miami has owned the third quarter and scored on all six of their drives (34 total points) in that critical stanza this year.
Lance: I see a team with a plan. Against UAB, Miami exploited the running game based on what the defense did. Against Louisville, they attacked in the passing game. In the game against Florida State, expect Miami to press their advantages and keep attacking until FSU folds.
Matt: Miami is simply the more talented team by a pretty wide margin, and they have a quarterback that the entire team can trust and rally behind. The entire team is feeding off of D’Eriq King’s confidence and charisma. He has taken over the locker room and has become the heart and soul of the team.
Bill: Lashlee and King are what has me most confident about not just the FSU game, but the team in general. These two guys are here to win and they’ll see this as an opportunity to put on a show against a demoralized rival. I think the offense will make strides every week as they continue to build out the playbook and increase reps. There’s no reason to believe this offense won’t make another jump heading into Week 3.
Q4: What have you seen from UM that makes you concerned the Canes might lose against FSU?
Stefan: With receivers consistently running free on the back end, Miami’s secondary has been near the bottom of the nation in defending the pass through two weeks in 2020, ceding 256 ypg through the air to opposing passers. On the flip side, FSU’s passing game was really the only bright spot for the team in 2019 at 34th in the country with 267.6 ypg. Without a real replacement for Cam Akers in the run game, FSU will absolutely need to rely on QB James Blackman, WR Tamorrion Terry, and the pass even more in 2020 to have a chance in this game. Also, the Canes shut down the Noles’ passing game last season largely on the strength of 9 sacks from their pass rush, but UM is replacing their top 4 edge rushers from last season. While there is still talent at DE, if Miami’s pass rush takes a step back, that provides more of a window of opportunity for Blackman and Terry to make plays against a questionable UM secondary.
Lance: History. Who as a Miami fan can really feel comfortable with anything from this program based on the past 15 years? Miami has made a habit of losing games they shouldn't and this would be the ultimate "Miami game" to go out and lose at a time when they have positive press and thoughts from fans.
Matt: Miami has a tendency to let you down as soon as you get your hopes up. We have seen this consistently over the past few years from Pitt in 2017, Virginia in 2018, and FIU last season. This will be a big test because Miami is the more talented team, ranked #12, and getting a lot of love from the national media. This week will show us how much King’s leadership has affected the team.
Bill: All the hype Miami is getting nationally has me concerned going into FSU. We’ve seen it time and time again with this program over the past 15 years, a big win followed by a letdown against a lesser opponent. This is their chance to show that this team is different in that they can handle everyone patting them on the back and come out fired up to lay a whooping on their rival.
Q5: Who in particular needs to step up for Miami to win?
Stefan: Just like in previous years, there’s a case to be made that this game is going to be won or lost at the line of scrimmage. That’s where DE Quincy Roche comes in and I would love to see him put his stamp on this rivalry before a national audience in this one. Roche has had a productive first two games at UM with 3.5 TFL and 1 sack, and FSU might be the worst offensive line he’ll see all season. If Roche and the rest of the D-Line are harassing Blackman all day, Blackman won’t have time to look downfield for Terry for the big play, while also opening up tons of opportunities for UM to get turnovers and shorten the field for their offense.
Lance: D'Eriq King needs to play well in every game for Miami to have a chance to win. They aren't good enough to overcome poor QB play consistently. DJ Ivey also needs to have a game that gets him confident and allows fans to find a new whipping boy.
Matt: I have been saying since the season preview roundtable that Miami needs a receiver to step up. Through two games, we have yet to see a player step up as the alpha of that room. Miami needs a number one receiver to emerge if this offense is going to take the next step. My pick is Jeremiah Payton if he is available.
Bill: Any WR at this point whether that's Dee Wiggins, Mark Pope, Mike Harley, Jeremiah Payton, or one of the freshmen. This has been an average group at best through 2 weeks, and last week’s drops vs. Louisville was a terrible look. Say what you will about FSU, but their DB room is filled with highly recruited guys that will be looking to shut down Miami’s WR’s and make life difficult on D’Eriq King.
Q6: What FSU player does Miami have to stop in order to win?
Stefan: The most talented player on FSU is considered to be DT Marvin Wilson, and for good reason. If allowed, Wilson can be a gameplan wrecker because of his ability to both shut down the run and also rush the passer from the interior. Wilson can change the dynamics of the game on his own, so Miami needs to focus on limiting his impact just like they did last season. If the Canes are successful, it could be a long day for the FSU defense.
Lance: Always the QB in football. James Blackman needs to be hit and rattled as soon as possible. From there, the whole team will fold.
Matt: Florida State lacks fire power on their offense, especially when compared to what they have had in the past few seasons. The most explosive player on their offense, and perhaps their only explosive player, is Tamorrion Terry. Terry is a deep threat and can challenge a defense vertically. Miami needs to take away the big play from Terry because FSU will have a difficult time consistently sustaining drives against Miami otherwise.
Bill: Tamorrion Terry. FSU shouldn’t be able to march up and down the field against Miami’s defense, so shutting down the big play will be critical. Terry is the only player on FSU’s offense capable of delivering a homerun and I expect Blake Baker to scheme against him. That could mean bracketing with Al Blades and Bubba Bolden/Gurvan Hall, but I would keep DJ Ivey and Te’Cory Couch away from Terry. FSU’s other WR’s don’t scare me.
Q7: What would a win against FSU mean for Manny Diaz's tenure at Miami and for the program in general?
Stefan: It’s always huge, no question about it. These two programs are headed in different directions right now and this is Miami’s perfect chance to continue their winning streak in the series, kick FSU even further down into the depths, and begin to establish dominance in the state. Also, this game is huge for recruiting every year, as the state’s best program during a particular cycle always ends up reaping the benefits. Miami is seen as ahead of FSU right now, so Manny has to keep that perception going by downing Norvell’s Noles in his first year at the helm.
Lance: It would help Diaz’s tenure, but at this point, FSU is so down that the expectation is Miami wins this game handily. I'm not giving out too much praise for winning a game Miami should win.
Matt: A win against Florida State is always a shot in the arm for the program even when they are down, as they have been the past few years. This is Miami’s chance to really make a statement and show where they stand in the college football landscape, while also showing recruits how far Florida State has fallen. A dominant and convincing win would be enormous.
Bill: A close win against FSU this week doesn’t really move the needle in terms of Manny’s tenure at Miami. FSU is a program that's in shambles right now and is in no way a quality win. However, if Miami goes out and demolishes FSU, that is something Manny can hang his hat on out on the recruiting trail. In terms of the program in general, this week is another opportunity for Miami to further distance themselves from the Seminoles when it comes to the pecking order in Florida.
Q8: Prediction time: How does this game end up going? (include a score prediction)
Stefan: The way I see it, the key to the game is this: to win, the Canes just have to not help the Seminoles' offense out. FSU struggles sustaining long drives due to inconsistent offensive line play, but they are opportunistic. If Miami starts getting careless with the ball on offense or starts blowing coverages on defense, FSU has the talent to make them pay. But, if Miami protects the football and wins the field position battle, I don't see any way FSU can score enough to win this game. I see a close game in the first half, with UM scoring a TD early in the fourth quarter to really pull away. 31-14, Miami.
Lance: Miami finds a fired up opponent early and they will be fake tough to start. From there, after Miami hits a few plays against them, you will see chirping and dirty plays from Florida State before Miami slowly pulls away. 41-21, Miami.
Matt: Miami is the more talented team, they are playing better, they are playing with more confidence, they have better leaders, and they seem to be the better coached team. This game should not be close. Miami will show that they have turned a corner under D’Eriq King’s leadership and win easily. 38-13, Miami.
Bill: I’m expecting FSU to come out fired up and give Miami their best shot early. FSU will throw the kitchen sink at UM on both sides of the ball. This is one of the greatest rivalries in college football and those games tend to be closer than most think. I don't think FSU can hang with Miami for 4 quarters, though, and I see UM pulling away early in the 4th quarter. My score prediction is 34-20, Miami.
