Let me preface this article by saying, I don’t think there is any significant difference in importance between regular-season games in college football. Anyone can beat you, and every single game is a must-win.
With that being said, I’ve been looking at the schedule, and it’s not easy. I do think there is a real possibility of losing one or two games. After all, it’s tough to go undefeated.
But losing a game or two, especially to good teams, isn’t the postseason death sentence it used to be; the College Football Playoff is still attainable, especially if your team wins in the conference championship.
This long-winded explanation is largely to say -
every game is important.
The reason I’ve circled these specific games right now is because of what they may mean based on my projections. I have this team at 10-2, with a nine-win floor and an 11-win ceiling.
Notre Dame - Home - Sunday, Aug. 31 - 7:30 p.m. on ABC
This game is almost self-explanatory. Miami kicks off the year by playing the most talented team on its schedule, one year removed from appearing in the National Championship against Ohio State.
This is the definition of a statement game.
It’s a chance to set the tone against a program that, historically, Miami fans hate. Though, does
anyone outside of Notre Dame’s fanbase enjoy the Fighting Irish? Plus, how can we forget the
41-8 rout the Hurricanes won at home in 2017?
While it’s not the end of the world if Miami loses Labor Day Weekend, this game has the chance to set the path for the Canes’ entire season.
Notre Dame was the runner-up in last year’s College Football Playoff (14-2) and finished seventh in rushing yards per game, 10th in points per game, and fourth in yards per rush. The Fighting Irish rushing attack is where Miami will be tested on defense, and will be a great first test for a revamped defense under new defensive coordinator
Corey Hetherman.
Running back
Jeremiyah Love will be the lead back for Notre Dame. He’s a future NFL draft pick and is a preseason first-team Walter Camp All-American. He ran for 1,125 yards on 6.9 YPC last season with 17 touchdowns and also caught 28 passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns.
But it’ll be important for Miami fans to know the name
Jadarian Price as well, who is the second - and just as effective - tailback for the Fighting Irish. He ran for 746 yards on 6.2 YPC last season with seven touchdowns but doesn’t offer much in the passing game (four catches for 10 yards).
Notre Dame will be a veteran-led team on both sides of the ball based on initial depth chart projections. The Fighting Irish added just eight transfers, with most of them being upperclassmen.
Miami will have to capitalize on Notre Dame likely trotting out
CJ Carr, a redshirt freshman from Saline, MI. Carr hasn’t seen any game action in his short college career and will be opening it up at a packed Hard Rock Stadium at night. He will have a solid receiving corps to help him out, but it’s important to rattle a young quarterback as soon as possible.
Much of Notre Dame’s returning production is on defense, with the addition of two veteran safeties as well. The Notre Dame defense ranked first in opponents’ completion percentage, third in opponents' points per game, and ninth in opponents’ yards per play. This is not only a significant test for Corey Hetherman’s brand new defense, but also for offensive coordinator
Shannon Dawson in game one after losing a significant amount of last year’s production.
Florida - Home - Saturday, Sept. 20 - Game time/network TBA
Warning: If you are a Florida fan currently reading this, you may be triggered by the score 41-17. I have to mention it, and I am not sorry. I know those two numbers tend to anger many, many fans.
But this is another game to circle. Not only is it a rivalry game, but it’s one that Miami won in blowout fashion, 41-17, last season in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, aka “The Swamp.”
It’s also a game that Miami gets to play at home, and Miami needs to win. Winning at home is essential. Getting a rivalry game at home, though? Even better. Florida is a very talented team, hatred aside, but this game being at home comes to Miami’s benefit.
This game is massive in terms of momentum, too. It’s the fourth game of the year, and it’s either a chance to right the ship (if the ‘Canes lose to Notre Dame) or a chance to prove Miami is the real deal at 4-0.
Florida lost a significant amount of talent during the offseason, both to the draft and, more notably, the transfer portal.
Florida’s offense will be led by quarterback
DJ Lagway. Lagway is supremely talented on the ground and has high upside as a passer. However, he threw nine interceptions last season, compared to 12 touchdowns. This will be another game for Hetherman’s defense to show its improvements and create takeaways. With a solid receiving corps as well, the Florida offense will be a great litmus test for what is one of the most talented and deep defensive back rooms in the ACC.
Shannon Dawson and Alex Mirabal will also have to have their A-games going against what looks to be a stout defensive line in Gainesville this season, led by multiple upperclassmen, such as DT
Caleb Banks and DE
Tyreak Sapp, among others.
Florida’s defense and offense, quite frankly, were pretty average as a team in many categories last year. But they did come out with an 8.49% sack percentage, which was good for 15th in the nation, and were eighth in the country in takeaways per game, with two per game. If anything is sure to hold up for the Hurricanes, though, it’s likely to be the offensive line. Negating that Gator pass rush will be crucial in a tough-but-winnable game.
Florida State - Away - Saturday, Oct. 4 - Game time/network TBA
Continuing with the trend of being all too obvious so far, the Florida State game is next.
This is another must-win against a rival. But this time, it’s an away game, one of the few the Hurricanes will play in 2025. Last season, Miami dominated this game at home, winning 36-14, in a game that was even worse for the Noles than the final score suggests.
Florida State figures to be better this year. How much? I’m not sure. But it’s hard to do worse than 2-10. That, coupled with the game being at Doak S. Campbell Stadium, will make this game harder to win.
Winning on the road is already tough enough. Throw in a packed, rowdy crowd in a rivalry game, and there’s always a chance to lose, no matter how big the talent difference may be.
Miami could enter this game 3-1 or even 2-2. In the worst-case scenarios, this game may be crucial to salvaging the season. Or, it may be a statement win over a rival to go 5-0. In both scenarios, this game figures to be huge as the near midway point through the season and the first ACC game.
Statistically, the Seminoles ranked in the bottom half of college football in nearly every offensive and defensive category. They aren’t trotting out the exact same team in 2025, but they haven’t seemed to add a significant enough amount of talent to have a miraculous turnaround.
The ‘Noles did bring in some upperclassmen and return some as well, so this isn’t generally a very young team, at least within the projected two-deep of the depth chart. Where Miami can take the most advantage in this game will be getting takeaways.
New FSU quarterback
Thomas Castellanos is a talented player, but has struggled with turnovers during his career. He’s thrown 19 interceptions in the past two seasons and fumbled six times in 2024.
He’s a serious threat with his legs and has run for over 1000 yards in his career, once, in 2023. He’ll be a challenge for the Miami defense to stay sound and scheme around someone who may look to run quite a bit in new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s system.
Florida State as a team, though, in 2024 also struggled mightily with turning the ball over, and not getting takeaways, resulting in a -1.6 average turnover margin per game. That was 132nd out of 134 FBS teams, 11 spots worse than Kent State, for reference, who was 0-12 last season.
SMU - Away - Saturday, Nov. 1 - Game time/network TBA
Syracuse and Louisville could have made this list. But I’m pointing this game out for a few reasons.
First, Miami goes to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas, to play one of its four away games. This is similar to the Florida State point - Away games are tough to win.
The SMU Hurricanes roster that former Miami offensive coordinator and now SMU head coach
Rhett Lashlee has assembled is a good one. And for those who don’t know, Lashlee enjoys bringing guys from Miami into his program. Expect to see former Miami wide receiver
Romello Brinson, running back
Chris Johnson Jr., quarterback
Tyler Van Dyke (on the sideline - injury), and offensive lineman
Zion Nelson.
Anyway, enough talk about former Hurricanes. SMU has a good overall roster and expects to be a good team again (11-3, 8-0 in ACC play in 2024). Good enough to make the College Football Playoff again? Maybe.
This game is especially crucial because not only may it have ACC championship implications, but possibly Playoff implications as well.
There isn’t any real rivalry with SMU, at least yet. But facing off with a recent former coordinator with multiple ‘Canes transfers adds a must-watch storyline, which is another reason I circled this game.
SMU brings in a lot of experience on their roster, and in the age of the transfer portal, you may notice that I mention upperclassmen a lot. There are a lot of upperclassmen who will start camp with jobs. The Mustangs had a solid defense in 2024, one that was in the top 25 in opponents’ yards per play, opponents’ points per play, opponents' third and fourth down conversion percent, and opponents' red zone scoring. It will certainly be a test for Miami’s offense against a sound unit with several returning starters.
The SMU offense is the thing to watch, though. They struggled to convert on later downs and in the red zone, but averaged 34.8 points per game (13th in the country) while ranking 16th in points per play, which indicated a high-octane, big-play offense.
The offense is propelled by the engine that makes everything go: Lashlee and his quarterback,
Kevin Jennings. Jennings threw for 3,245 yards last year and added 354 on the ground. He accounted for 28 total touchdowns as well.
Jennings, though, turned the ball over quite a bit. He threw 11 interceptions and lost five fumbles. That’s where Miami’s rebuilt defense needs to capitalize. He can hurt you, but he will give you opportunities for more possessions.
SMU lost a lot of production at the running back position as well, after losing
Brashard Smith,
LJ Johnson Jr., and
Jaylan Knighton. The Mustangs will be trying to look to new backs to supplement some of that production loss, and may even lean heavier on Jennings to run, too.
Virginia Tech - Away - Saturday, Nov. 22 - Game time/network TBA
This is the last game I have circled. The matchup screams “trap game.” Good, or bad, Virginia Tech is a tough opponent, and they proved that last season in a 38-34 Miami win that came down to a review on the game-winning attempt from Virginia Tech (clearly was not a catch, by the way).
Virginia Tech went 6-7 last season, but figures to be a better team this season, which already makes the game tough, no matter the talent Miami has, or whether it’s home or away.
But as many football fans know, Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia, can be a nightmare for opposing teams. If you haven’t seen the Hokies walk out to “Enter Sandman” by Metallica, you should probably
check it out.
Not to hype them up too much, but I’m simply preparing Miami fans for the likely event in which Miami enters Lane Stadium for a night game, in the second-to-last game of the season.
That is the main reason I have this game circled. The Hurricanes may be sitting at 9, 10, or 11 wins going into this game. This game is
HUGE. It’s a big ACC matchup, a rivalry game, and a game so close to the postseason that it may have implications for a playoff appearance—no pressure, of course.
Virginia Tech was below average offensively as a team last season, and they were deficient in passing the ball. They were not a bad rushing attack, ranking in the 30s and 40s in rushing categories, though.
They were also fairly average on defense as well, but did rank in the top 10 in opponents' completion percentage, and the top 25 in interception percentage and sack percentage.
The opportunistic Hokies also averaged 1.9 takeaways a game (12th in the country) and ranked 22nd in turnover margin with a +0.6.
Virginia Tech rebuilt its roster using the transfer portal quite a bit (30 players in), but largely due to having to replace 31 players, including impact players
Mansoor Delane,
Xavier Chaplin, and
Braelin Moore, among others.
Kyron Drones figures to continue as Virginia Tech’s starting quarterback despite a below-average season last year. He finished with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Drones ran for 336 yards and six touchdowns, and ran for 818 yards in 2023.
Drones is a good runner and can create plays behind the line of scrimmage, but if Hetherman’s defense can force him to be a pocket passer, Miami will have the opportunity to take advantage of Drones’ weaknesses.
Miami is ranked ninth in ESPN’s power index for the 2025-26 season, with a 4.7% chance to win out (go undefeated), a 46.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff, and a 2.7% chance to win the National Championship, all according to ESPN’s predictions.
Miami’s schedule on paper is tough, and there are some tough games on the road to end the season. Which means it's all the more important that Miami takes care of its harder home games.
