I'll bet any taker a whole pie with 1 topping at The Big Cheese and a Joe Zagacki meet-and-greet that Strong lasts only 2 more years there. His recruiting classes look to be okay (on par with what Mack Brown did for years) but he'll have absolutely no margin for error in a state that now has several other programs challenging UT. Strong might be a good coach but he sucks at all the ancillary stuff off the field and won't have too many defenders if he doesn't produce in a huge way soon.
You pretty much nailed it.
His recruiting class isn't that much better than Baylor's and TCU's and he isn't a better coach than Briles or Patterson. If Strong isn't going to bring south Florida talent to UT then he has lost his advantage. He has 2 more years and then he will be out at Texas.