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Chances tonight?
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tcgrad1014
All-ACC
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To say that Virginia's defense is good is like saying Jeff Bezos is wealthy.
HurikaneMarc
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Virginia has shown that under the right circumstances they can be beaten. Even at their place.
At our place, we will have to play lights out to win. Usually the recipe against super defenses is somebody has to get hot and the offense has to be executed to completion all game long. Even when it doesn't seem to be working early.
Good defenses depend on the eventual impatience breakdown of the offense as it struggles. They start trying different things, shooting crazy 3's driving uncontrollably to the rack, turning the ball over and suddenly you're down 20.
We've got to play defense to our level, not have a lot of turnovers and somebody has to be able to score against their D.
At our place, we will have to play lights out to win. Usually the recipe against super defenses is somebody has to get hot and the offense has to be executed to completion all game long. Even when it doesn't seem to be working early.
Good defenses depend on the eventual impatience breakdown of the offense as it struggles. They start trying different things, shooting crazy 3's driving uncontrollably to the rack, turning the ball over and suddenly you're down 20.
We've got to play defense to our level, not have a lot of turnovers and somebody has to be able to score against their D.
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SanAmaro2005
Redshirt Freshman
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I also worry about rebounding and playing defense down low tonight. UVA has a couple guys (Salt, Wilkins) down there that are fundamentally sound and consistently make the plays that are available to them. Huell needs a better performance than the last few.
Hemsleysalmons
Freshman
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Vegas has Virginia 5-6 point favorite. Vegas usually nails it. We will have to play our best game to beat them. Unfortunately we appear to be very inconsistent and #1 Virginia coming in ****ed because they lost Saturday to Virginia tech. Tough game.
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Points scored and total rebounds are silly stats, and they are completely useless for a team that limits possessions (both theirs and their opponents) like UVA. A more helpful stat is offensive efficiency, and UVA ranks 51st at 1.083 points per offensive possession. By comparison, we are #84 at 1.064.
IMO, that gives a better indication of how good UVA's offense is -- it is pretty good, not outstanding, but still better than ours on average.
IMO, that gives a better indication of how good UVA's offense is -- it is pretty good, not outstanding, but still better than ours on average.
Consigliere
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Do you have any proof that vegas calls the game accurately?
I am not saying it isn’t true but is there any evidence they “predict” the finish and “nail it”.
The problem with UVA's pack line defense is that you need to think about it like a zone at times, even though it also involves man principles. For example, if someone like Lykes or Newton beats the defender off the dribble, they should expect the "pack" to be in position to cut off the dribble drive. Someone like Newton can be successful if the pack doesn't close out quickly and Newton stops to hit his typical shots in the lane. Otherwise, you need to think about it as comparable to a zone, in that the drive should cause the pack to defend the lane, freeing up the kick-out for an open three.
A second consideration is how UVA handles ball screens. They almost always have the screener's defender immediately pick up the ball handler, to avoid the quick drive to the basket off the screen. Moreover, UVA often has the ball handler's original defender stay with the ball as well to create a double team. Unfortunately, we haven't handled this well in the past, and infrequently were able to find the screener on the roll. I also like to see teams that, instead of completing the screen, use it as a decoy and have the ball handler drive to the basket immediately prior to the screen. Someone like Lykes with his quickness could take advantage of UVA overplaying the ball screen.
The teams that I have seen operate successfully against the pack line defense also attack the pack with lots of off-ball screens. In that case, defenders can't simply sit in the pack, but instead need to respond to the screens, which may create wide-open threes if the offense is moving the ball. If the defenders respond to be in a position to contest threes, that should open up the lane to permit better dribble penetration and shots at the rim. But you need lots of movement. If out half-court offense tonight consists of one, two or even three-player movement, with the remaining players merely spotting up (with no movement), we will be looking at another sub-50 point game and an easy UVA victory.
A second consideration is how UVA handles ball screens. They almost always have the screener's defender immediately pick up the ball handler, to avoid the quick drive to the basket off the screen. Moreover, UVA often has the ball handler's original defender stay with the ball as well to create a double team. Unfortunately, we haven't handled this well in the past, and infrequently were able to find the screener on the roll. I also like to see teams that, instead of completing the screen, use it as a decoy and have the ball handler drive to the basket immediately prior to the screen. Someone like Lykes with his quickness could take advantage of UVA overplaying the ball screen.
The teams that I have seen operate successfully against the pack line defense also attack the pack with lots of off-ball screens. In that case, defenders can't simply sit in the pack, but instead need to respond to the screens, which may create wide-open threes if the offense is moving the ball. If the defenders respond to be in a position to contest threes, that should open up the lane to permit better dribble penetration and shots at the rim. But you need lots of movement. If out half-court offense tonight consists of one, two or even three-player movement, with the remaining players merely spotting up (with no movement), we will be looking at another sub-50 point game and an easy UVA victory.
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We CAN win. It just becomes very hard when (a) you don't play defense very well, and (b) you don't have a great inside presence. We are only shooting 8% better from inside the arc, and we don't have great rebounding. When you add in the poor free-throw shooting, it is amazing that we have the record that we have.
And it also explains why we go ice cold against BC and lose by 2. Ridiculous.
Good post HLS
Sounds to me like we are going to need some favorable calls tonight. Newt can be very effective but only if he gets the calls. if not sit him down. We need to not let that D get set. Push push push. Making free throws will be critical. i am rooting for Izundu hard tonight. Give a chance coach
Sounds to me like we are going to need some favorable calls tonight. Newt can be very effective but only if he gets the calls. if not sit him down. We need to not let that D get set. Push push push. Making free throws will be critical. i am rooting for Izundu hard tonight. Give a chance coach
numbers
Sophomore
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UVa is good at helping/rotating/recovering. When we struggle on offense, there is a lot of dribbling and one-on-one (hero ball) and sans a career night for someone, UVa will likely eat that up. More cutting and passing and some timely three point shooting is needed tonight.
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Vegas doesn't usually nail the spread.
UVA being favored by 6 certainly means they have a higher probability of winning the game. It's actually around 72% for college hoops.
But the spread being 6, in no way, tells us uva is likely to win by that margin.
So do we have a chance? Vegas history says we win this game 3 out of 10 times. Let's hope it's tonight.
UVA being favored by 6 certainly means they have a higher probability of winning the game. It's actually around 72% for college hoops.
But the spread being 6, in no way, tells us uva is likely to win by that margin.
So do we have a chance? Vegas history says we win this game 3 out of 10 times. Let's hope it's tonight.
scane
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Probably about a 25% chance of winning. To win one or more of our three point shooters needs to get hot, Lonnie has to be a factor throughout, and we need to sustain our defensive intensity throughout the game. Coach L making the 2nd half subs instead of Caputo would help too.
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