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CFB Analytics Thread 2026-27

hurricaneman said:
A couple things:

Wake is 15th in yards per play against FBS opponents. They've also played the 3rd (Louisville) and 5th (Miami) teams in yards per play on offense. Wake is a really good defense.

I would argue Clemson is a top 50 defense and will likely finish the season there. The LSU game really messes with their stats. Their last 4 games would have them ranked around 37th, including playing us.
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His dataset is kinda weird.

Deleted my previous posts because I found out what the problem was.

He made the mistake of showing the chart that does not filter for FBS games only, but the claims he made based on the dataset are from a filtered FBS games only subset. If the chart matched the latter subset, it’d look like this:

IMG_1413.jpeg


This is why i kinda hate the FBS vs FBS only systems. Alabama has played zero FCS teams. Without filtering for FBS games only, they’ve played 5 top 50 defenses. By filtering it, they’ve only played 2.

Likewise, Miami has played two top 50 defenses without filtering for FBS games only, but Clemson and WF both slide out of the top 50 in this filter. The strange part of this is, is that neither team has played an FCS opponent yet! So why in the world is a FBS-only filter making them look so much worse?

My primary preferential filter, if any, will always be P4 vs P4 stats; but removing FCS teams from the input-equation distorts everything so much.
 
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At the same LSU, who has played an FCS opponent, goes from the #3 defense to the #1 defense when filtering for FBS only games. How in the world does that make any sense?

Diving into the inputs, FCS opponent Mcneese state scored 14 points on 47 plays whereas FBS opponents Louisiana Tech scored 14 points on 55 plays, Clemson scored 10 points on 62 plays, Ole Miss scored 32 points on 73 plays, Kentucky scored 35 points on 68 plays, and Texas A&M scored 6 points on 60 plays.

So in the oddest way, removing an FCS opponent actually helps LSU who gave up a relatively high points/play average against McNeese State compared to the others:

14/47=0.298

FBS ONLY:

14/55=0.255
10/62=0.161
32/73=0.438
35/68=0.515
6/60=0.1

97/318=0.305

Slightly higher. Hmmm. The key is; Louisiana Tech scored on a pick 6 which isn’t the defense’s fault,

90/318=0.283

Boom. That’s why LSU’s defensive rating goes up when FCS opponents are left out. Since a lot of backups play against FCS teams, I’d imagine that’s how 25 teams are able to jump Clemson + WF (who haven’t played any FCS opponents) in defensive rank. It’s counterintuitive.
 
Al Davis----"Just win baby".

I mean the stats are interesting, but who did you play. Were you running up the score or playing young guys. How was the weather. was the other team healthy ( we weren't vs WF and). Does give us something to look at and talk about between games.
 
Points per drive data is updated now through last week, and like every other metric, we’re killing it.

Currently #2 in the country in net points per drive. Only ND is better. #1 in the country in offensive points per drive. #5 in defensive points per drive.

Obviously still really early but we have a net points per drive of 3.15 right now. Absurd. A number of 2.0 is really, really, really good.

Let’s keep it rolling this week. I want 4 points per drive on offense.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Points per drive data is updated now through last week, and like every other metric, we’re killing it.

Currently #2 in the country in net points per drive. Only ND is better. #1 in the country in offensive points per drive. #5 in defensive points per drive.

Obviously still really early but we have a net points per drive of 3.15 right now. Absurd. A number of 2.0 is really, really, really good.

Let’s keep it rolling this week. I want 4 points per drive on offense.
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Season is basically half over
 
cookies said:
At the same LSU, who has played an FCS opponent, goes from the #3 defense to the #1 defense when filtering for FBS only games. How in the world does that make any sense?

Diving into the inputs, FCS opponent Mcneese state scored 14 points on 47 plays whereas FBS opponents Louisiana Tech scored 14 points on 55 plays, Clemson scored 10 points on 62 plays, Ole Miss scored 32 points on 73 plays, Kentucky scored 35 points on 68 plays, and Texas A&M scored 6 points on 60 plays.

So in the oddest way, removing an FCS opponent actually helps LSU who gave up a relatively high points/play average against McNeese State compared to the others:

14/47=0.298

FBS ONLY:

14/55=0.255
10/62=0.161
32/73=0.438
35/68=0.515
6/60=0.1

97/318=0.305

Slightly higher. Hmmm. The key is; Louisiana Tech scored on a pick 6 which isn’t the defense’s fault,

90/318=0.283

Boom. That’s why LSU’s defensive rating goes up when FCS opponents are left out. Since a lot of backups play against FCS teams, I’d imagine that’s how 25 teams are able to jump Clemson + WF (who haven’t played any FCS opponents) in defensive rank. It’s counterintuitive.
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It’s what my AP Stat teacher called an outlier? I’m fuzzy on the data stuff now. Your guys lists are insanely cool as a data analyst myself but don’t tell the whole story as a former player.

The dichotomy.
 
cookies said:
At the same LSU, who has played an FCS opponent, goes from the #3 defense to the #1 defense when filtering for FBS only games. How in the world does that make any sense?

Diving into the inputs, FCS opponent Mcneese state scored 14 points on 47 plays whereas FBS opponents Louisiana Tech scored 14 points on 55 plays, Clemson scored 10 points on 62 plays, Ole Miss scored 32 points on 73 plays, Kentucky scored 35 points on 68 plays, and Texas A&M scored 6 points on 60 plays.

So in the oddest way, removing an FCS opponent actually helps LSU who gave up a relatively high points/play average against McNeese State compared to the others:

14/47=0.298

FBS ONLY:

14/55=0.255
10/62=0.161
32/73=0.438
35/68=0.515
6/60=0.1

97/318=0.305

Slightly higher. Hmmm. The key is; Louisiana Tech scored on a pick 6 which isn’t the defense’s fault,

90/318=0.283

Boom. That’s why LSU’s defensive rating goes up when FCS opponents are left out. Since a lot of backups play against FCS teams, I’d imagine that’s how 25 teams are able to jump Clemson + WF (who haven’t played any FCS opponents) in defensive rank. It’s counterintuitive.
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IMO the best way to look at this is really only P4 vs P4. Forget FCS, the difference between the upper 10% FCS teams and bottom 10% may as well be different sports.

And honestly, P4 vs G6 has never been wider either. P4 teams are 73-3 this year against G5 opponents, with an average margin of victory is something like 28 points.

IMO all data should be P4 vs P4 only.
 
CaneLife93 said:
But we play against the cupcake ACC, soooo do any of our games actually matter
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Do they matter is obviously a nuanced question.

They do in the sense of we need to finally win the ACC. It's why I was so overly bullish on us winning the league this year. We are so, so, so much more talented than the average ACC team, but I wasn't completely sold that we were going to be better than last year. I thought we would be, but I wasn't 100% convinced. What I was convinced of was our schedule was a complete joke. It's probably the worst P4 schedule in the country, honestly. Especially if you look at just conference games. Wake is an OK team, but let's be real, we beat them probably 90%+ of the times. If we played them 100 times over the course of 100 weeks on a neutral field, we win 90 of those. The other 8 ACC games, holy **** do these teams suck ***.

So, from a statistical standpoint, they count, but they don't "matter". It's part of the reason I said all summer we should be a Top 10 offense and Top 20 defense nationally in our sleep. Our opponents are wretched ***.

Sagarin isn't the bible, but it's a long running ranking. Of all P4 teams he has ranked, guess who's the worst? Yep, Stanford. We play them. Who is 2nd worst? Yep, Boston College. We play them too. So we play the 2 literal worst P4 teams in America, per Sagarin. VT is 49. FSU is 44. Duke is 43. All 3 of those teams are ranked behind PURDUE. UNC is 40. Clemson is 39. Both those teams are behind Boise State, Penn State, and Michigan. G6 teams, and *** B1G teams.

Wake is 29th, ND is #1. Those are the only 2 teams on our entire schedule who sniff the Top 30.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Do they matter is obviously a nuanced question.

They do in the sense of we need to finally win the ACC. It's why I was so overly bullish on us winning the league this year. We are so, so, so much more talented than the average ACC team, but I wasn't completely sold that we were going to be better than last year. I thought we would be, but I wasn't 100% convinced. What I was convinced of was our schedule was a complete joke. It's probably the worst P4 schedule in the country, honestly. Especially if you look at just conference games. Wake is an OK team, but let's be real, we beat them probably 90%+ of the times. If we played them 100 times over the course of 100 weeks on a neutral field, we win 90 of those. The other 8 ACC games, holy **** do these teams suck ***.

So, from a statistical standpoint, they count, but they don't "matter". It's part of the reason I said all summer we should be a Top 10 offense and Top 20 defense nationally in our sleep. Our opponents are wretched ***.

Sagarin isn't the bible, but it's a long running ranking. Of all P4 teams he has ranked, guess who's the worst? Yep, Stanford. We play them. Who is 2nd worst? Yep, Boston College. We play them too. So we play the 2 literal worst P4 teams in America, per Sagarin. VT is 49. FSU is 44. Duke is 43. All 3 of those teams are ranked behind PURDUE. UNC is 40. Clemson is 39. Both those teams are behind Boise State, Penn State, and Michigan. G6 teams, and *** B1G teams.

Wake is 29th, ND is #1. Those are the only 2 teams on our entire schedule who sniff the Top 30.
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Love the answer and agree. We also don't get to determine our ACC slate or their quality.

My response was more in jest because national media and fans always argue "WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED" to simply discount our CANES.

We're gonna keep getting these questions until we play Notre Dame unfortunately and every pundit will ask "are they battle tested enough"
 
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