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Canes -8 Against MSU

Hoyacane1620 said:
247 had the Mich State reporter do a "guest" Q&A today. He hadn't seen the App state game but said that prior to the season, he had chalked this game up as a loss for Mich State.


- He said their OL play has been horrible for years but seems to be turning the corner. It's hard to really get a good read because they just played an FCS team.

- Says the team strengths are WR & RB. More than half the teams season to date stats are from their cupcake game with Youngstown state. They averaged more than 8ypc and 10 ypp. Lead RB is Kenneth Walker, Wake Forest transfer. Backup is Jorda Simmons (last year's leading rusher) and Eli Collins, 2019 leading rusher (988 yds)

-Best WR are Jayden Reed (#1) and Jalen Nailor (#8).

=Starting QB is Peyton Thorne, RS Soph. Miami game will be his 4th start. This reporter grades him as a "B" QB. He's a coach's kid who is a good decisionmaker and relatively mobile.

- He believes their OL is weak; 3 6th yr seniors, 1 RS SR, 1 transfer RS JR(LT) = says they have gotten "smoked' for the past two seasons. Yet to be seen how much, if any , improvement since they haven't played any real opponent

- Their starting TE is also their 3rd string punter.

He rates their DL as a B+ : particularly the interior. They rotate 5 DTs who all range from 290-320 lbs. Their MIKE lb is a sophomore and is the defensive team leader. He is very good at side to side coverage

These are his words:
"There is NO pass rush from the DEs. Zero. It's all from LB/S blitzes. They CANNOT get home with 4 to save their life and have given up like 50% of the 3rd and 4th down conversions against as a result. This is probably a great 2 down D and a crap 3rd/4th down (Money downs?) D. Terrible. They've faced like 160 plays through 2 games."

He goes on to say that Quavaris Crouch, the transfer lb from Tennessee, is a freak athlete but has absolutely no idea what he is doing on the field.

He says their secondary is a disaster: they got two transfers who are marginally better than one another. he said it's obvious why they never played at their respective schools: Ronald Williams( from Alabama ) and Chester Kimbrough (Florida transfer)

He also said that while their back 7 are generally out of position, they do rally to the ball and don't allow alot of YAC. He said he can see a noticeable difference in tackling already this season compared to last.

He pretty much said the path to winning is to get to Thorne the QB early. make sure all the skill guys - WR and RB are covered because they are all capable of breaking a big play. He said all the TE are awful and not worth worrying about. He also said their special teams is weak and the kickoffs are generally short.

Could be an interesting game if we don't keep a lid on the QB/WR/RB.
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This all translates to Lashlee and Diaz making all these JAGs look like superstars.
 
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Canedog said:
I wonders what the prognosticator of all prognosticators, Okefenokee Cane, thinks of this game?
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Funny u shood ax. . . Based on Spartans play so far on defence, offence and special teemz-no offence entinded- I say we whoop em 52-17. Quote me on dat!
 
Canedog said:
You must bee smokin some of dat Bud Granny Hawkins suns Ben growing on the old goat farm down the end of Dykes Rode.
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Sun u trippin canes gots a good game comin I feel it. Return to glory baby! D. Eric gone sling dat s#^t boy. Defense will bring out ternover chane least three times.
 
I don’t care if we start in prevent defense but we bet (better) not give up a tuddy on the first play of the game.
#getiveyouttathere
 
When Michigan State had Dantonio and this was an AWAY game in East Lansing, I had this as a loss. Miami, over the past 20 years, has been historically bad on the road or at a neutral site OOC against the Power 5. Lots of straight up losses, and even worse against the spread.

No Dantonio, game in Miami...I'm not sure what to think of Michigan State after looking pretty good in their first two games this year. I'm also not sure what Miami really has in the tank...they've looked pretty horrendous through 8 quarters. I'm curious to see where the money ends up on this one...I'm thinking Miami, but closer than the experts think.
 
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Welp, I bet Miami. _-6, -6.5 and in a ML parlay.

If Miami doesn't cover, I hope they just lose outright, but only if it contributes to Manny getting fired.

MSU doesn't have the horses and it's gonna be hot out.
 
Lowest I’ve seen is 6. Don’t see it getting any lower than that by game time. 5’s are dead numbers. 5.5 has to be the buy back. I think it closes at 6.5
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Lowest I’ve seen is 6. Don’t see it getting any lower than that by game time. 5’s are dead numbers. 5.5 has to be the buy back. I think it closes at 6.5
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I know very little about gambling, but i know that lines can move noticeably on the last day before the close. How much time is left for any last minute movement?
 
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RJ Lee said:
I know very little about gambling, but i know that lines can move noticeably on the last day before the close. How much time is left for any last minute movement?
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Sunday at first drop and Saturday mornings right before close have the most line movement. Line movement also depends on the number. 3, 6, 7, and 10 are the “key” numbers. It’s obvious as to why. That’s why I said 5’s are dead meaning movement from 4.5-5.5 doesn’t mean much. There’s a small chance it’ll hit 5.5 at some shops but I don’t think it stays there long.

Opened at 8 and ive seen as much as 70% of the money being on MSU which is why it jumped down, but market correction happened at 6, again a key number. That’s my long way of saying, since it’s around 6 it won’t jump around too much unless info comes in about players or something dramatic.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Sunday at first drop and Saturday mornings right before close have the most line movement. Line movement also depends on the number. 3, 6, 7, and 10 are the “key” numbers. It’s obvious as to why. That’s why I said 5’s are dead meaning movement from 4.5-5.5 doesn’t mean much. There’s a small chance it’ll hit 5.5 at some shops but I don’t think it stays there long.

Opened at 8 and ive seen as much as 70% of the money being on MSU which is why it jumped down, but market correction happened at 6, again a key number. That’s my long way of saying, since it’s around 6 it won’t jump around too much unless info comes in about players or something dramatic.
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The more I study this game, the more I think the betting public is overreacting to a short sample size and not taking into account strength of schedule. Miami has the 3rd hardest schedule in the country with Michigan St 82nd.
 
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