if anything bet on the 1st half...this game has backdoor cover written all over it. can totally see canes being comfortably up by 30+ entering 4th, putting in 2nd and 3rd stringers then, FAU scoring 2 TDs in garbage time.
Backdoor covers are overrated. Don't happen nearly as often as the hype, or fear. Fairly basic reason for that. A team with a big manpower advantage is always the favorite to get the next score. They are favored to have the first score, the second score, and so forth. Obviously the favored aspect doesn't always come through but it's flawed thinking to believe the heavy underdog is somehow transformed into a big favorite to get the final score(s) and that the score will be just enough to slip inside the spread.
There are actually more frontdoor covers on spreads of 20+ than backdoor covers. In other words, the favorite secures it late.
Years ago when I was a semi-regular on a Las Vegas radio sports talk show there was a host named Arne Lang who was a very good guy and sharp sports analyst but for some reason was preoccupied with backdoor covers. He touted them every week on specific college football games, saying he "could feel it." My friend Dave was also a regular on that show. After trying to deflect the topic unsuccessfully, and being frustrated at the wasted time every week during that program, he finally started making side bets with Arne, that the backdoor cover wouldn't happen. He gave Arne plus odds but it wasn't high enough. Dave knew it. I knew it. I'd done the research. Arne didn't understand it and thought he was receiving a bargain. Finally when the backdoor covers weren't happening on those games the topic properly was shelved.
Of course, as soon as something like this is mentioned, if a backdoor cover shows up the chirps show up. Doesn't matter. As always, big picture. Understand the true odds.
