forums

Can this offense be as good as ‘24?

BeastMode said:
Concerned about the OL. I need to see it first.

Freshman LT, new center who has hardly played, new RG or RT depending on where they put Samson. Who are the backups? Lot of question marks in my opinion there. Good thing is Mensah can move around better than Beck.
Click to expand...
Will have growing pains. We’re going to have two true freshmen playing significant roles — if not starting — to begin the season. I think that will pay big dividends at the end of the year.

It’s a long season and we have a weak schedule, which mitigates some of my concern.

Just keep QB healthy. I think come ND we’ll be solid along the line.
 
dycane said:
Will have growing pains. We’re going to have two true freshmen playing significant roles — if not starting — to begin the season. I think that will pay big dividends at the end of the year.

It’s a long season and we have a weak schedule, which mitigates some of my concern.

Just keep QB healthy. I think come ND we’ll be solid along the line.
Click to expand...

The weak start of the season should help for sure. Stanford is a nice opener to test them and then a couple cupcakes to work on things.

The game at Clemson will tell me a lot about this team.

Two freshmen starting? I haven’t kept up with any team news since the end of the championship game. Is Cogdon starting at RT?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
It's too early for this ****.

Can it be? Yes. Will it be? No. Simply out of necessity, combined with who Mario is. I am not convinced last year changed him. You would think and hope, after the "let it rip" stuff (that I will not add additional commentary to), he and the staff has realized there are no rules against a football team combining an offense like 2024 with a defense like 2025. But he's really conservative by nature.

So, can the offense be as good? I think the pieces are as good. But in 2024, we had the #1 offense in the country because that was the only way we could win games. If we had the 20th, or 30th best offense, we'd have gone 7-5. I don't think that's the case in 2026. We can go 11-1 with the 20th best offense. Now, I'm not saying the staff is going to go into the season with that as their goal. Literally every single offensive play is drawn up to score a touchdown, if it goes perfectly. So they're not going to sit in their pre-camp meetings and say, "OK, we want to have the #25 offense in America". Of course not. But the way they coach in games is going to dictate how we finish. And I think the offense (which will be outstanding) combined with the defense (which will be outstanding) and schedule (which is putrid) will not demand having the #1 offense in America.

Case in point...we scored 52 against Louisville in 2024, and we needed **** near every one of them.
We scored 39 against Cal. Needed literally every one. Scored 38 against VT, almost lost. Scored 38 against Cuse, did lose. Scored 53 against Duke and it was a game well into the 2nd half. I just don't see that this year with this defense.

We won't need 40 against Stanford and Duke and Boston College and Central Michigan and UNC, etc.

My guess is we finish around 10th-15th in YPP and scoring. We were 32nd in the country last year in scoring offense, exactly 30.0 per game. We were #1 at 42.9 PPG in 2024. I expect 2026 to be somewhere in the middle, around 35 per game, which traditionally ranks you around 12th in the country. Mario *should* play for style points all year and push to score 50 a game, but that's not his nature. You know we're going to run the ball. You know we're going to rotate heavily. And if/when we're up 34-10 in the 3rd quarter of a game, he's not going to be screaming at Dawson to hurry up and score more points.
Click to expand...
Reading this , brought to mind the obvious. If you are up 38- 10 to start the 4Q. You are going to run-run-run and/or your 2nd and 3rd team is going to be in, which then skews your offensive stats. Stats do not necessarily prove who has the best O.
 
Empirical Cane said:
Doesn't Santo Mario's reliance on TUFF N FYZICAL skew Miami's YPP downward vs pass happy teams (e.g. Lane Kiffin, etc...)?

Not necessarily a bad thing because of clock control, but a reality of the metric.
Click to expand...
That's one of the reasons why YPP is a worthless metric: it fails to inform us whether the Offense is a metronome or boom & bust. It conflates the two, because theoretically it's possible for both types to converge on the same YPP figure. For us to discern where the Offense lies on the spectrum, we have to analyze both success rate & IsoPPP+. Success rate operates on the 50-70-100 rule & IsoPPP+ conditions on success to get a read on explosiveness. We can also just view avg EPA, since it reflects both in one composite number, but that doesn't give us the same insight as analyzing them independently. Then there is also opponent adjusted, predictive models that utilize many of these metrics in their calculation to provide insight into either play-based or drive-based efficiency; the two main ones are S&P+ & FEI.

In general, metrics that are non-contextual & unadjusted for opponent tend to be worthless, i.e. YPG, PPG, YPP, etc. Unfortunately, those are the exact metrics individuals on this forum continue to cite over & over again, because we're really not the brightest fanbase, tbh; the majority of the analysis & criticism taking place on this forum tends to be misguided. Smh

I've attached screenshots that show where this team ranked in both S&P+ & FEI for this past yr & in 24'.

Screenshot 2026-08-03 072305.png

Screenshot 2026-08-03 072159.png

Screenshot 2026-08-03 071345.png

Screenshot 2026-08-03 071814.png
 
Last edited:
Trafficante said:
That's one of the reasons why YPP is a worthless metric: it fails to inform us whether the Offense is a metronome or boom & bust. It conflates the two, because theoretically it's possible for both types to converge on the same YPP figure. For us to discern where the Offense lies on the spectrum, we have to analyze both success rate & IsoPPP+. Success rate operates on the 50-70-100 rule & IsoPPP+ conditions on success to get a read on explosiveness. We can also just view avg EPA to get a read on both in one composite number, but that doesn't give us the same insight as analyzing them independently. Then there is also opponent adjusted, predictive models that utilize many of these metrics in their calculation to provide insight into either play-based or drive-based efficiency; the two main ones are S&P+ & FEI.

In general, metrics that are non-contextual & unadjusted for opponent tend to be worthless, i.e. YPG, PPG, YPP, etc. Unfortunately, those are the exact metrics individuals on this forum continue to cite over & over again, because we're really not the brightest fanbase, tbh; the majority of the analysis & criticism taking place on this forum tends to be misguided. Smh

I've attached screenshots that show where this team ranked in both S&P+ & FEI for this past yr & in 24'.

View attachment 368753
View attachment 368755
View attachment 368756
View attachment 368757
Click to expand...
You had me at "metronome"

🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
 
On a down to down basis, maybe.
We need to completely ditch the TE as a base set. It’s a wasted man on the field with this group. Could get away with that a little more with the OL last year, because they could plow over teams. But I don’t think we will get away with it to the same degree this year. So we need to get another weapon on the field.

In terms of raw numbers, no. Not even close. Too many blowouts with these defense and offense.
 
mossmadness said:
100% have to ditch the TE now as a base package.
Click to expand...


17:24 We're going to have to find out. And Miami fans, I think you are in the same boat. If there is one question about your roster, literally one, it would be, are the tight ends good enough?

And my report would be or my retort to that would be, do they need to be? [laughter] Do they need to be? Do y'all have so many wide receivers? Do we do we even want to be at 11 personnel or should we just live in 10? You know what I mean?

****, maybe 02, you know, or uh uh 20. Get in 20 personnel. Play two backs, no tight ends. Cuz y'all got five **** good backs, too, don't they?

 
Back
Top