In the past 10 years, only 4 times has a qb drafted #1 been a starting qb in the Super Bowl. Manning, Cam Newton, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow (each 1 time)
And if you rank your top 5 qbs right now who would be a super bowl contending QB, the majority would not have been drafted #1.
The Chiefs traded up to #10. The Bills traded up for Josh Allen at #12. The Eagles got Hurts in the 2nd. Lamar Jackson went at end of 1st.
Seems to be more evidence of gettting a QB at the right time in the evolution of a team construct is better receipe than it is to blindly throw darts at a QB when you still have a full roster construct to do on top of that. Especially when transcendent talents aren’t available every year at #1.
Lots of Qbs taken #1 have struggled and never took off.