Bruce Brown is a Piston

[ben]

As a Pistons fan I can tell you guys this is a great landing spot for Brown. Detroit has no cap space so they have no backup small forward behind Stanley Johnson right now. Add in that backups at SG and PG (Galloway, Ish Smith and Buycks) aren’t great defenders and I can see Brown getting regular minutes...

 

[tcgrad1014]

Can you please provide me with the data that shows a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower?

The NBA draft is getting younger almost every year. In the past 5 years there have been a total of twenty 22 and 23yo players drafted in the 1st round, compared to fifty-seven 20 and 21yo players, and seventy-three 18 and 19yo players. Clearly, your odds of being a first round pick decline dramatically with age. Of the 22-23yo group, 6 were drafted in 2014, 4 in 2015, 5 in 2016, 3 in 2017, and only 2 in 2018.

If you break it down specifically between 21 and 22, there have been twenty-four 21yo players drafted in the past 5 years compared to seventeen 22yo players (a not insignificant 30% difference).

 

[Consigliere]

I don't think you read the post or you don't have the data. I also don't know where you got your data.

I am asking for the data that shows a 22 YO will be drafted significantly lower than a 21 YO.

[Warning I am making the following up]

So if the average 21 YO is drafted 27th and the average 22 YO is drafted 35th, then you might have some data.

In the past 5 years there have been a total of twenty 22 and 23yo players drafted in the 1st round, compared to fifty-seven 20 and 21yo players, and seventy-three 18 and 19yo players.

Here, you're not comparing what I asked. I asked for something simple, show me the data of 22 v 21 and their position. We're only talking about Bruce, so 18, 19, 20 and 23 YOs aren't relevant to what I am asking.

If you break it down specifically between 21 and 22, there have been twenty-four 21yo players drafted in the past 5 years compared to seventeen 22yo players (a not insignificant 30% difference).

Are these first round picks or overall picks?

As for overall: (if you average all of the picks below, for the last 5 years, you would have an answer to my question)

Since 2014: There have been 64 Players drafted who were 21 YO.

Since 2014: There have been 63 Players drafted who were 22 YO.

Drafted 21 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

Drafted 22 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

 

[Consigliere]

I mean its pretty obvious that you start losing your potential the older you get. Its pretty obvious that lesser talented younger players get drafted ahead of more talented older players every season. Do you not pay attention to the draft at all?

Only 7 Juniors and Seniors were taken in the first round this year meanwhile 20 freshman and sophomores were selected in the first. Only 2 players 22 y/o or older were drafted in the first round meanwhile 7 21 y/o players went in the first round.

edit- in 2017 only 3 players were taken in the first round at 22y/o or older.

1. We're all aware of the NBA and the age. That isn't what I am asking. I am asking for data reflecting a 22 YO (what Bruce would be next draft) v. 21 YO (Bruce today). Then you add in the fact that Bruce regressed and was injured, but that isn't what I am asking.

2. I think you need to read the post closer. I am asking for proof that shows a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower? You would need to show average draft position of a 21 YO v. 22 YO.

3. We're not comparing class/grade either. Bruce is 21 (today) and a true sophomore. Not relevant to what I am asking.

4. As for overall: (if you average all of the picks below, for the last 5 years, you would have an answer to my question)

Since 2014: There have been 64 Players drafted who were 21 YO.

Since 2014: There have been 63 Players drafted who were 22 YO.

Drafted 21 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

Drafted 22 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

1. We're all aware of the NBA and the age. That isn't what I am asking. I am asking for data reflecting a 22 YO (what Bruce would be next draft) v. 21 YO (Bruce today). Then you add in the fact that Bruce regressed and was injured, but that isn't what I am asking.

2. I think you need to read the post closer. I am asking for proof that shows a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower? You would need to show average draft position of a 21 YO v. 22 YO.

3. We're not comparing class/grade either. Bruce is 21 (today) and a true sophomore. Not relevant to what I am asking.

4. As for overall: (if you average all of the picks below, for the last 5 years, you would have an answer to my question)

Since 2014: There have been 64 Players drafted who were 21 YO.

Since 2014: There have been 63 Players drafted who were 22 YO.

Drafted 21 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

Drafted 22 YOs Here: NBA Draft History Search - RealGM

Last 2 years 11 21 y/o players went in the first and only 5 22 y/o players went in the first. Thats a significant difference and its only getting worse for older players every year.

Im not sure why you are quoting numbers for the entire draft when we are only discussing brown actually improving his position.

1. I gave you stats on the difference between 21 and 22 y/o players

2. No you dont get to say what the evidence needs to be.

3. Class difference show the trend that the older you get the less valuable you are.

4. Why in the world are you quoting numbers for guys drafted in the second round? Why are you going so far back when the draft is constantly changing and has been trending towards youth for the last decade?

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

So if the average 21 YO is drafted 27th and the average 22 YO is drafted 35th, then you might have some data.

Last 2 seasons 29 21 y/o have been drafted at an average of number 37. Last 2 season 22 22y/o have been drafted at an average of 41.

Happy now?

 

[Consigliere]

Last 2 seasons 29 21 y/o have been drafted at an average of number 37. Last 2 season 22 22y/o have been drafted at an average of 41.

Happy now?

Although that is an incredibly small sample size, you proved there is no significant difference.

4 positions.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

Although that is an incredibly small sample size, you proved there is no significant difference.

4 positions.

So the fact that you have a higher chance of being drafted and at a better position as a 21 y/o means nothing...

Its okay that Bruce left. The stats show he really did make the best decision for himself when it comes to draft position. He wasnt going to improve to a 1st rounder if he came back. You can get over it.

 

[Consigliere]

Last 2 years 11 21 y/o players went in the first and only 5 22 y/o players went in the first. Thats a significant difference and its only getting worse for older players every year.

Im not sure why you are quoting numbers for the entire draft when we are only discussing brown actually improving his position.

1. I gave you stats on the difference between 21 and 22 y/o players

2. No you dont get to say what the evidence needs to be.

3. Class difference show the trend that the older you get the less valuable you are.

4. Why in the world are you quoting numbers for guys drafted in the second round? Why are you going so far back when the draft is constantly changing and has been trending towards youth for the last decade?

1. The point was to show whether or not a 22 YO is drafted significantly lower than a 21 YO. Not totals, not first round picks. Just average position. We all know not all 22 and 21 YOs are the same.

2. I don’t get to say what the evidence needs to be? Showing a significant difference in position would show that the odds of improving one’s position are unlikely. If the difference was great (say 10 picks) then it makes sense to leave when you’re younger (all things equal).

3. 5 years is not a lot of time. It is a standard way of demonstrating enough of a sample.

4. Why second round too? Because this is about average draft position. Maybe this is too difficult for you to understand. You need both rounds to figure out whether or not there is a significant difference.

 

[Consigliere]

So the fact that you have a higher chance of being drafted and at a better position as a 21 y/o means nothing...

Its okay that Bruce left. The stats show he really did make the best decision for himself when it comes to draft position. He wasnt going to improve to a 1st rounder if he came back. You can get over it.

You proved, via a small sample, that there is no significant difference in drafted position.

Also, to show that he had a higher % chance of being drafted (anywhere) you would need to show a different stat. You would need to show how many are drafted (at either age) and how many entered the draft. For example: 30 22 YOs entered the draft and only 12 were drafted.

You didn’t do that either.

As for Bruce making a smart decision, it is clear it wasn’t a smart one.

 

[tcgrad1014]

My statistics were only first round picks (second round picks are meaningless, probably worse than going undrafted because at least if you are undrafted you are free to sign with any team you want). It's blatantly obvious that the older you get, the less chance you have of being a first round pick. Could Brown Jr. have moved up in the draft next year with a great college season? I guess he theoretically could have. But moving up in the draft means exactly nothing unless you are a first round pick, and the odds of a 22yo (going on 23yo) being a first round pick in the NBA draft is close to nil.

Time to move on to a different argument.

 

[Consigliere]

My statistics were only first round picks (second round picks are meaningless, probably worse than going undrafted because at least if you are undrafted you are free to sign with any team you want). It's blatantly obvious that the older you get, the less chance you have of being a first round pick. Could Brown Jr. have moved up in the draft next year with a great college season? I guess he theoretically could have. But moving up in the draft means exactly nothing unless you are a first round pick, and the odds of a 22yo (going on 23yo) being a first round pick in the NBA draft is close to nil.

Time to move on to a different argument.

You tried. You couldn’t do it (at least so far). Those stats (second round) are not meaningless because the point is whether or not there is a significant difference between a 21 and 22 YO and their drafted position.

The sad part is Brown had a “crappy” season, perhaps if he had a solid season, improved and injury free next year, it wouldn’t be worse than 41.

If Brown had a similar season (this year) as last year and was injury free, I would have said go. There is no point to stay if things are the same.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

You proved, via a small sample, that there is no significant difference in drafted position.

Also, to show that he had a higher % chance of being drafted (anywhere) you would need to show a different stat. You would need to show how many are drafted (at either age) and how many entered the draft. For example: 30 22 YOs entered the draft and only 12 were drafted.

You didn’t do that either.

As for Bruce making a smart decision, it is clear it wasn’t a smart one.

Things in the NBA change fast, the draft 5 years ago doesnt reflect what a current draft looks like. I dont really have the time to be your personal statistician and calculate what you want to see every time you move the goal posts. The stats have been provided to you but you just want to ignore them.

You seem to be letting your saltiness towards Bruce's decision cloud your vision on this one. The fact is the statistics show he would have a lower chance at getting drafted and would most likely go at a lower position in the draft if he stayed.

 

[Consigliere]

This is my last post unless you come up with the data to support your claim. You can go on a tangent, diatribe or whatever but even your own data shows a difference of 4 spots.

Things in the NBA change fast, the draft 5 years ago doesnt reflect what a current draft looks like.

1. The rules have been the same for the NBA draft since 2006.

2. Even if you think 5 years is too long; your tiny sample (2 years) shows a difference of ONLY 4 spots. Let me repeat that part, there is ONLY a difference of 4 spots. 4 spots.

I dont really have the time to be your personal statistician and calculate what you want to see every time you move the goal posts. The stats have been provided to you but you just want to ignore them.

1. Nobody moved the goal posts. The point has been the same the WHOLE time.

2. Again, even your tiny sample shows no significant difference. Unless going from the 37th pick to the 41st pick is a tremendous difference.

3. My own "personal statistician" aka "I can't prove it so I am just going to deflect and throw chit at the wall" You seem to have plenty of time to respond to this post, so show the data that Bruce's decision made sense. Because over the last 2 years (according to your data), there was a difference of 4 spots. 4 spots. Yes, 4 spots. What a tremendous difference!!!!

You seem to be letting your saltiness towards Bruce's decision cloud your vision on this one. The fact is the statistics show he would have a lower chance at getting drafted and would most likely go at a lower position in the draft if he stayed.

1. Saltiness? We're discussing it. If you don't like it, then move on.

2. You also didn't prove the second sentence above. Again, if you show that 50 22 YOs entered the draft and only 9 were drafted versus 50 21 YOs entered the draft and 20 were drafted, then you can say that there is a less likelihood of a 22 YO getting drafted over a 21 YO.

3. If Brown had a similar season (this year) as last year and was injury free, I would have said go. It makes sense. Enter the draft. But that didn't happen. Bruce was injured, regressed and possibly have more room to grow. There is no point to stay if things are the same but things were NOT the same.

4. Finally, I am not disputing that an older player (in general) may be less appealing than a younger player. If you're comparing a 22 YO to a 19 YO, there could be a tremendous difference. The thing is, we're not comparing 19 v. 22. We're comparing 22 v. 21. Over the last 2 years, only ONE more 21 YO was drafted over 22 YO. Finally, according to your data, the average drafted player (22 v. 21) was a difference of 4 spots. Neither demonstrates a significant difference.

 

[NorthFloridaCane]

This is my last post unless you come up with the data to support your claim. You can go on a tangent, diatribe or whatever but even your own data shows a difference of 4 spots.



1. The rules have been the same for the NBA draft since 2006.

2. Even if you think 5 years is too long; your tiny sample (2 years) shows a difference of ONLY 4 spots. Let me repeat that part, there is ONLY a difference of 4 spots. 4 spots.



1. Nobody moved the goal posts. The point has been the same the WHOLE time.

2. Again, even your tiny sample shows no significant difference. Unless going from the 37th pick to the 41st pick is a tremendous difference.

3. My own "personal statistician" aka "I can't prove it so I am just going to deflect and throw chit at the wall" You seem to have plenty of time to respond to this post, so show the data that Bruce's decision made sense. Because over the last 2 years (according to your data), there was a difference of 4 spots. 4 spots. Yes, 4 spots. What a tremendous difference!!!!



1. Saltiness? We're discussing it. If you don't like it, then move on.

2. You also didn't prove the second sentence above. Again, if you show that 50 22 YOs entered the draft and only 9 were drafted versus 50 21 YOs entered the draft and 20 were drafted, then you can say that there is a less likelihood of a 22 YO getting drafted over a 21 YO.

3. If Brown had a similar season (this year) as last year and was injury free, I would have said go. It makes sense. Enter the draft. But that didn't happen. Bruce was injured, regressed and possibly have more room to grow. There is no point to stay if things are the same but things were NOT the same.

4. Finally, I am not disputing that an older player (in general) may be less appealing than a younger player. If you're comparing a 22 YO to a 19 YO, there could be a tremendous difference. The thing is, we're not comparing 19 v. 22. We're comparing 22 v. 21. Over the last 2 years, only ONE more 21 YO was drafted over 22 YO. Finally, according to your data, the average drafted player (22 v. 21) was a difference of 4 spots. Neither demonstrates a significant difference.

1. Im not talking about the rules... im talking about the actual trends in the players being drafted.
2. I guess 4 spots and 7 more players isnt important all... Bruce really should have stayed so he could get drafted number 46 instead of 42 and have a lower chance at getting drafted.

1. Every time you respond you move the goal posts.
2. "Tiny" Sample lol. I guess getting drafted lower is a reason to come back a year?
3. You keep moving the goal posts and asking for ever more specific stats...

1. You are so salty over the Brown decision and have been since it was announced. Its okay to admit you are letting your feelings get in the way.
2. Only 60 players get drafted ever year. Less of them are 22 y/o than 21. Its simple.
3. Bruce is already so old he has to take his chance while he has it.
4. You really have a hard on for over all draft position when the only thing that matters is getting in to the first round to get that guaranteed money.

Bottom line is BB could only improve his position by getting in the first round and the chances of him doing that at 22 are slim to none.

 

[tcgrad1014]

1. Im not talking about the rules... im talking about the actual trends in the players being drafted.
2. I guess 4 spots and 7 more players isnt important all... Bruce really should have stayed so he could get drafted number 46 instead of 42 and have a lower chance at getting drafted.

1. Every time you respond you move the goal posts.
2. "Tiny" Sample lol. I guess getting drafted lower is a reason to come back a year?
3. You keep moving the goal posts and asking for ever more specific stats...

1. You are so salty over the Brown decision and have been since it was announced. Its okay to admit you are letting your feelings get in the way.
2. Only 60 players get drafted ever year. Less of them are 22 y/o than 21. Its simple.
3. Bruce is already so old he has to take his chance while he has it.
4. You really have a hard on for over all draft position when the only thing that matters is getting in to the first round to get that guaranteed money.

Bottom line is BB could only improve his position by getting in the first round and the chances of him doing that at 22 are slim to none.

All of this is of course spot on.

 

[jhtheking]

I mean its pretty obvious that you start losing your potential the older you get. Its pretty obvious that lesser talented younger players get drafted ahead of more talented older players every season. Do you not pay attention to the draft at all?

Only 7 Juniors and Seniors were taken in the first round this year meanwhile 20 freshman and sophomores were selected in the first. Only 2 players 22 y/o or older were drafted in the first round meanwhile 7 21 y/o players went in the first round.

edit- in 2017 only 3 players were taken in the first round at 22y/o or older.

Hmm interesting stats but I think what we really need to look at is draft position rather than the number selected per year of school. There could just be 25-30 draft-worthy players per class, and 20 of them go in their freshman and sophomore years. Doesn't necessarily mean a senior will be drafted lower than a younger player.

 

[Consigliere]

Hmm interesting stats but I think what we really need to look at is draft position rather than the number selected per year of school. There could just be 25-30 draft-worthy players per class, and 20 of them go in their freshman and sophomore years. Doesn't necessarily mean a senior will be drafted lower than a younger player.

This is what I was pushing the whole time. I want to know average draft position.

 

[Consigliere]

All of this is of course spot on.

Just so you know:

1. The poster's own data demonstrated there was NO significant difference. Here is that post...

Last 2 seasons 29 21 y/o have been drafted at an average of number 37. Last 2 season 22 22y/o have been drafted at an average of 41.

Are you aware they only show a difference of 4 spots in the average draft position between a 21 YO v. 22 YO. You saw that right? 4 spots? Did you notice that it was ONLY 4 spots? So there is the data that there is no significant improvement.

2. That same poster, since you clearly read their posts, said your 5 years (which you choose as the guideline) was too long. Here is that post...

Things in the NBA change fast, the draft 5 years ago doesnt reflect what a current draft looks like.

Remember, you choose the 5 year guideline. Here is that post...

The NBA draft is getting younger almost every year. In the past 5 years there have been a total of twenty 22 and 23yo...

Even in your 5 year guideline, the difference between 21 YOs and 22 YOs drafted was ONE PLAYER.

3. Finally, I am not disputing that an older player (in general) may be less appealing than a younger player. If you're comparing a 22 YO to a 19 YO, there could be a tremendous difference. The thing is, we're not comparing 19 v. 22.

Like I said, if you or the other poster, can come up with actual data demonstrating a significant difference, I'd love to read it. If not...Bruce was drafted at 41. I don't see the harm in coming back after you regressed and missed a lot of games.

 

[Consigliere]

Separate question (to anyone that cares, which may be no one). Let's ignore any and all data, let's just look at what happened.

1. You will be 22 YOs before the next draft.

2. You missed a large % of games after your solid freshman season.

3. You regressed.

4. Your injury was not significant, in the sense that it will not hurt your future performance.

5. You will be drafted (in this draft) in the middle of the second round (41-50).

Do you stay or go? Keep in mind, the difference is you know you will be a second round pick.