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Bruce Brown is a Piston

My point was not that he would be unlikely to improve if he returned. My point is that even if he did improve, because of his age, it is highly unlikely that his draft position would improve enough to push him into the first round (the only round that matters).
 
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tcgrad1014 said:
Everybody is saying the sky is blue except one person saying it's green.
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Yes. Two people. You're side is two people. Unless you're talking to people off the board? Are you talking to people off the board?

Should I count the people who upvote my posts? Does that matter? Do you care?
 
tcgrad1014 said:
How is someone supposed to get data on how many 21yos compared to 22yos entered their names in the nba draft?
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I am not the one that asked for that or made that claim. You made that claim here.

tcgrad1014 said:
A 21yo therefore has a greater percentage chance of being drafted in the first round than a 22yo.
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I never asked about that. I don't care about that either.

I have consistently asked for the same thing. I just asked for data showing a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower. I NEVER said anything about first round picks. I ONLY wanted to know how much of a difference it makes between that one year. By NFC showing there is only a 4 spot difference (for the last 2 years), it shows that there is NO real significance waiting the extra year. That is it. This is the end. I wanted to know about the risk involved.

tcgrad1014 said:
You've set an impossible standard to be proven wrong. The clear evidence is that the older you get the less likely you are to be a first round pick (the only round that matters). Everybody knows this. I'm not sure how you're missing this obvious fact or choosing to ignore it.
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1. Impossible standard? Seriously? All you would have to do is find the average position of a drafted 22 YO v. 21 YO (NFC already found there was only a difference of 4 spots for the last 2 years). It shows that there is only a difference of 4 spots.

2. The reason I am asking for it AGAIN is because I wanted to know how much risk is involved in waiting the extra year for Bruce. So when you have a player that was a sophomore, who was 21, who was injured and his play regressed. I wanted to know how much he gives up by waiting until he is 22. When NFC found out it was only 4 spots. It doesn't seem like there is much of a risk. If you're a second round pick now, you're likely not risking too much by waiting the additional year. You may be a second round pick then too, who knows?

3. I am aware that a 19 YO has a better chance of being drafted in the first round than a 22 YO. This isn't relevant. This isn't the consistent question posed. We're only comparing a 22 YO and 21 YO. Maybe this is too difficult.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
My point was not that he would be unlikely to improve if he returned.
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Are you saying he can't improve at all? Are you saying he can't play like he did his freshman year?

tcgrad1014 said:
My point is that even if he did improve, because of his age, it is highly unlikely that his draft position would improve enough to push him into the first round (the only round that matters).
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Possibly but the data doesn't show that there is a significant difference in waiting. That is the point.
 
You wrote:

I have consistently asked for the same thing. I just asked for data showing a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower. I NEVER said anything about first round picks. I ONLY wanted to know how much of a difference it makes between that one year. By NFC showing there is only a 4 spot difference (for the last 2 years), it shows that there is NO real significance waiting the extra year. That is it. This is the end. I wanted to know about the risk involved.

This is the disconnect between your "argument" and relevance. It doesn't matter how many spots higher or lower somebody is picked if they aren't in the first round. Second round picks are meaningless. Discussing them is meaningless. Analyzing where 21yo and 22yo players are drafted if the discussion includes the second round is meaningless. There is only one relevant question: What are the chances that Brown Jr. would be drafted in the first round in 2019 if he came back next season. The odds, based upon how NBA drafts have trended towards youth in recent years, are overwhelming that he would not. Thus the decision he made to leave now was a reasonable playing of the odds.
 
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TC,

No matter what side you take on this argument; it comes down to risk. That is why I wanted to know whether or not a 22 YO (over a 21 YO) will be drafted significantly lower. Since it comes down to risk; you need to include both rounds because by coming back someone could do worse (this is the risk). Obviously Bruce could get injured and his career may be over (at least delayed) by returning. His career may be over (at least delayed) in summer ball before he gets a contract.

I wanted to know, from day one, whether or not that risk was worth it. So if you told me a player's position could get much worse in the draft, even to the point of NOT being drafted, then I would see that significant difference. This would end any debate.

For the last 5 Years (2014-18): There have been 300 Picks in the Draft:

1. 21.3% of the players drafted have been 21 YOs v. 21.0% have been 22 YOs
2. The average draft position of a 21 YOs is 37.25 v. the average draft position of a 22 YOs is 39.52
3. There were (64) 21 YOs drafted v. (63) 22 YOs drafted

So over the last 5 years, there isn't much of a difference between 22 YOs v. 21 YOs.

Back to Bruce. We can all agree Bruce had a sub-par season. My question was and has always been, given Bruce had a sub-par season where he was injured and regressed, does it make sense to return? Is the risk too great?

1. Given that there is no significant difference in drafted position,
2. Given that there was almost the same amount of 21 YOs as 22 YOs drafted, and
3. Given that Bruce was injured, regressed and missed a bunch of games...

I don't think the risk was too great given that there isn't much of a difference in the above. The key thing, in addition to the above, is Bruce didn't play great. Bruce didn't work himself up into the first round this past draft. His play regressed and he was injured. Essentially, if Bruce was going to be a first round pick NOW, it was a lot on potential and not on actual play.
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We know that the average position of a drafted player isn't significant (in terms of the drop-off) so let's see the reward.

For the last 5 Years (2014-18): There have been 150 Picks in the First Round:

1. 16.0% of the players drafted in the first round have been 21 YOs v. 11.3% have been 22 YOs
2. There have been (24) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (17) 22 YOs drafted in the first round
3. On average (4.8/year) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (3.4/year) 22 YOs drafted in the first round.

*Not that it matters but there were (3) 23 YOs drafted in the first round during that time*

There is no doubt, that younger players make up the majority of the first round 70+% (18, 19 and 20 YOs). I would NEVER dispute that. In addition, the dramatic drop-off already occurred before Bruce started this past season. With that said, on average there are/is still a chance of making the first round after 20 (i.e. 21 and beyond). The question now is whether or not Bruce can be part of the 11.3% of players who are 22 and get drafted in the first round. That is up for debate.
 
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You wrote:

For the last 5 Years (2014-18): There have been 150 Picks in the First Round:

1. 16.0% of the players drafted in the first round have been 21 YOs v. 11.3% have been 22 YOs
2. There have been (24) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (17) 22 YOs drafted in the first round
3. On average (4.8/year) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (3.4/year) 22 YOs drafted in the first round.

These numbers are not insignificant. A 22yo has a 30% less chance of being drafted in the first round compared to a 21yo (as my original post noted). The risk in him coming back wasn't that his draft position would decline (being the 40th pick or 50th pick doesn't matter). The risk was that based on the above statistics, he would unlikely be a first round pick in 2019, and he would have wasted a year of earning.
 
tcgrad1014 said:
You wrote:

For the last 5 Years (2014-18): There have been 150 Picks in the First Round:

1. 16.0% of the players drafted in the first round have been 21 YOs v. 11.3% have been 22 YOs
2. There have been (24) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (17) 22 YOs drafted in the first round
3. On average (4.8/year) 21 YOs are drafted in the first round v. (3.4/year) 22 YOs drafted in the first round.

These numbers are not insignificant. A 22yo has a 30% less chance of being drafted in the first round compared to a 21yo (as my original post noted). The risk in him coming back wasn't that his draft position would decline (being the 40th pick or 50th pick doesn't matter). The risk was that based on the above statistics, he would unlikely be a first round pick in 2019, and he would have wasted a year of earning.
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No. That is the reward.

The reward is that IF he comes back, improves and stays healthy he may be rewarded as a first round selection.

Things aren’t equal, we already know how Brown performed this past season. Those 4.8 spots are given to those who deserve them (both in performance and potential).

He performed poorly (at least according to NBA GMs) and that combined with his potential got him a pick in the 40s.

So the risk is whether or not he gives up on his chances to be drafted now (obviously not knowing he would be drafted where he was drafted) v. next season. Will there be a significant difference in waiting, which we know is NO.

Now the odds of him getting one of the 3.4 spots are lower, for sure. But the odds of an 21 YO injured player who regressed getting one are very low.

This is my last post on this so feel free to continue this on your own.
 
There is a risk and a reward to every decision. The certain loss of a year of income to likely (based upon the statistics) be a second round pick next year (the risk) clearly outweighed the potential, but very unlikely, reward of being a first round pick in 2019 (there were two 22yo players drafted in the first round in 2018...6.66% of the first round), even if he had a stellar third season at Miami. He weighed those data points and obviously made the right decision in leaving. It was time to go.
 
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Consigliere man you have taken a massive L on this one based on your general saltiness towards this man making the best decision for his career.
 
NorthFloridaCane said:
Bruce with 15 points 11 rebounds 6 assists and 5 steals today in the summer league
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Watched the entire game and Bruce was the leader of his team. They had him play point all game and he played extremely well. We all know that Bruce has the ability to play point in spurts but if he could improve his ball handling and be a full time point guard it could take his game to another level. He was facilitating so well last night and was there go to guy late when the game came down to the wire. I still don't think he can be a full time point guard but last night he gave me some hope and a glimpse of it.
 
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