Bill Connelly's SP+ bullish on the Canes

LOL.

Bill Connelly is a Missouri fan. He's just an analytics guy, he wouldn't 'like Miami', but his stats would.

He likes Manny Diaz though. Used to have him on his podcast.

Agreed. He knows Manny well and speaks very highly of him as a defensive coach.

And I know you’re not saying this, but we have some really shockingly unintelligent people here so I wanna be sure it’s conveyed correctly, there is no Miami bias in numbers (or any other team). It’s just data. But he is basically saying #8 is kinda surprising for a team who ended the year as we did last year.
 
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Why do you assume Rambo is gonna replace Wiggins?
Wiggins is untouchable on this team
Fully expect he and Pope to play a lot against Alabama along with other veterans like King, Harris, Rambo, Harley, Mallory, Scaife, Donaldson, Gaynor, J. Williams. There's value in having 4th and 5th year guys in an opener against the biggest/strongest team in the country. If they produce against Bama then they can keep playing, but if they falter then I'd expect the young thundercats to begin eating into their snaps early and often. Kids like Van Dyke, Garcia, Chaney, Knighton, Brinson, Redding, K. Smith, B. Smith, Arroyo, Rivers, Walker.
 
How is it unhinged to say something that’s true? It’s obviously not verbatim but my quote is the basic gist of what we’ve heard every preseason for the last 17 years. You know what would be a original, if some media member spoke the truth of those last 17 years and said “you know what, we keep being high on Miami and Miami keeps letting us down. The U is clearly not back and because of the last 17 season we believe they are who their record says they are. So we’re not high on them till they prove us wrong.” Now that would be breath of fresh air and maybe the reverse would happen and we’d actually kick @ss during the season instead of always wining the media offseason predictions. Because and maybe I’m old school, but the season is still the only thing that matters to me. I know, Call me crazy! 🤷🏻‍♂️ Lol

Because what happened under Coker, Shannon, Golden and Richt is irrelevant.

What matters is this team, this year, with these players.

If you need further perspective, players who graduated in 2003 are about to turn 40.
 
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Because what happened under Coker, Shannon, Golden and Richt is irrelevant.

What matters is this team, this year, with these players.

If you need further perspective, players who graduated in 2003 are about to turn 40.

Quoting you @Go Canes!! because it looks like either @NicKane deleted his post or it was simply too outlandish for CIS (or Russian hackers are messing with him)....

But I just want to point out the absurdity of anyone reading a pretty innocuous thread about an SP+ article and UM's rating therein, having a barely intelligible hissy-fit about the OP and source material, claiming he did not read the source material, and then responding that "the season is still the only thing that matters to" him.

@NicKane, if the results of prior seasons' games played are the only thing that matters in forming your opinion on the outlook of next season, then you should probably just cruise on by OPs like this. Your opinion (notwithstanding its sole reliance on limited and stale data) isn't crazy, but the way you continue to espouse it in threads like this one is. Get help. Please.
 
Fully expect he and Pope to play a lot against Alabama along with other veterans like King, Harris, Rambo, Harley, Mallory, Scaife, Donaldson, Gaynor, J. Williams. There's value in having 4th and 5th year guys in an opener against the biggest/strongest team in the country. If they produce against Bama then they can keep playing, but if they falter then I'd expect the young thundercats to begin eating into their snaps early and often. Kids like Van Dyke, Garcia, Chaney, Knighton, Brinson, Redding, K. Smith, B. Smith, Arroyo, Rivers, Walker.

The offense was pretty good last year.....at times very good, and at times not nearly good enough, but overall you have to say it was a pretty good offense.

Every single coach is back for Year 2, and Year 1 (breaking in a new staff) was severely abbreviated due to Covid. So Year 1 was really like Year 0.25, or something like that. Every single member of the offensive staff back for what should be close to a normal year should be a big boost.

Every single kid who took a meaningful snap not named Brevin Jordan is back. Every one. The entire 2-deep, minus Brevin.

The supremely talented freshmen backs are no longer freshmen.

Rambo will be a big addition to the WR room, which desperately needs a shot in the arm.

Donaldson is back healthy to add to the line. At worst, it's a slight improvement to a line that was not good enough in 2020, but markedly better than it was in 2019. Continue to improve.

Of course everything is predicated on D'Eriq King's right knee. We all know that. This is mostly moot if he's not himself. But assuming he's 100% as a passer and 90% as a runner, the arrow should be pointing way up on an offense that was already pretty good. 26th in PPG, and I don't remember any special teams or defensive TDs to pad that number, literally zero big returns for short fields, and not a ton of turnovers cashed into easy points as well. Food for thought on that:

Miami was 15th worst in the country in average starting field position. Only 14 teams in America had a worse average field position than we did last year. Those teams are basically a who's who of terribleness. South Carolina, Michigan State, Kansas, UMass, Arizona, Cal, Vanderbilt. Brutal. Hawaii is the only team worse than Miami who had a winning record, and they were 5-4. So the offense finished 26th in PPG despite having some of the least help of any team.

And while looking at this, another one jumped out to me. There is a "Net Field position" metric, which is the difference between your avg starting position on offense (which we just said was terrible) and your opponent's average starting field position. Obviously, it's a huge help if this number is positive...it means you're dealing with short fields and your opponents are not. Well, Miami finished 83rd in the country in this number. Of the 44 teams worse, only TWO had winning records. Wow. Tulsa and Georgia Southern. Every single other team worse had a losing record. Think that's a pretty good indicator of success?

So all that to say, with virtually zero help from the return game or defense setting up short fields, Top 30 in PPG is pretty impressive. Whole staff back. Whole squad back. Rambo here. Donaldson here. LFG.
 
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The offense was pretty good last year.....at times very good, and at times not nearly good enough, but overall you have to say it was a pretty good offense.

Every single coach is back for Year 2, and Year 1 (breaking in a new staff) was severely abbreviated due to Covid. So Year 1 was really like Year 0.25, or something like that. Every single member of the offensive staff back for what should be close to a normal year should be a big boost.

Every single kid who took a meaningful snap not named Brevin Jordan is back. Every one. The entire 2-deep, minus Brevin.

The supremely talented freshmen backs are no longer freshmen.

Rambo will be a big addition to the WR room, which desperately needs a shot in the arm.

Hooorrrrray for all of this, but:

1) I would have been a lot happier to see Kosi return (never thought I'd say that) after his performance in the bowl, AND,
2) The WR room is abysmal until proven otherwise. For every Jaelan Phillips, there's a Dee Delaney.
 
Hooorrrrray for all of this, but:

1) I would have been a lot happier to see Kosi return (never thought I'd say that) after his performance in the bowl, AND,
2) The WR room is abysmal until proven otherwise. For every Jaelan Phillips, there's a Dee Delaney.

7 and 8 were abysmal. 3, while not a high NFL talent, certainly was not.

Add Rambo to the mix, I would be very surprised if it winds up being abysmal, but i certainly see your point and can respect a wait and see attitude.

This really all depends on hitting on someone beyond 3, 7, 8, and Rambo. I mean, we signed Payton in 2019, 4 WRs in 2020, and 3 WRs in 2021. While I'm not going to bank on any of the 2021 kids becoming game-breaking, go-to players yet, if just 1-2 of them can contribute and Jesus Christ you'd think somebody out of Payton, Redding, Smith, Restrepo, and Worsham can play, we might be OK. Payton was the highest rated kid we signed in the entire 2019 class. It'd be really crushing for him to wind up a complete zero, but obviously that story is not yet written.

So, I get your pause. It's justified. But to keep me from hanging myself, I'm going to be optimistic that of the 8 kids on the roster who haven't done anything yet, we can find 1-2 of them to play with Harley and Rambo (and maybe Pope can pull his head out of his *** and be decent?). If that's the case, the WR production should be better. Frankly, 26th in PPG with how bad those kids were last year is all the more impressive, IMO.
 
If D'Eriq King comes back relatively healthy and Manny Diaz gets back to playing press man and the defense has more of an edge to them (things break right with turnovers we get back to better sack numbers)...I don't see why this isn't a realistic goal.

If King struggles to regain form and the defense is charmin soft again...ya...probably rat poison.
 
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7 and 8 were abysmal. 3, while not a high NFL talent, certainly was not.

Add Rambo to the mix, I would be very surprised if it winds up being abysmal, but i certainly see your point and can respect a wait and see attitude.

This really all depends on hitting on someone beyond 3, 7, 8, and Rambo. I mean, we signed Payton in 2019, 4 WRs in 2020, and 3 WRs in 2021. While I'm not going to bank on any of the 2021 kids becoming game-breaking, go-to players yet, if just 1-2 of them can contribute and Jesus Christ you'd think somebody out of Payton, Redding, Smith, Restrepo, and Worsham can play, we might be OK. Payton was the highest rated kid we signed in the entire 2019 class. It'd be really crushing for him to wind up a complete zero, but obviously that story is not yet written.

So, I get your pause. It's justified. But to keep me from hanging myself, I'm going to be optimistic that of the 8 kids on the roster who haven't done anything yet, we can find 1-2 of them to play with Harley and Rambo (and maybe Pope can pull his head out of his *** and be decent?). If that's the case, the WR production should be better. Frankly, 26th in PPG with how bad those kids were last year is all the more impressive, IMO.

I think you mean 6 and 8. And 3 was, at times, abysmal. Including bobbling/losing multiple punt returns.

Talk about potential all day long but I'm tired of Greentree All Americans. Until I see it on the field, I'm skeptical.
 
I think you mean 6 and 8. And 3 was, at times, abysmal. Including bobbling/losing multiple punt returns.

Talk about potential all day long but I'm tired of Greentree All Americans. Until I see it on the field, I'm skeptical.

Christ, yes. Sorry. Long week....

6 and 8. Drops Wiggins and Muff Pope. My bad.
 
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Bill Connelly released his preseason SP+ rankings this morning, with as many of the transfers and roster changes as possible incorporated so far.

It makes sense that he's high on Miami given that a big part of his rankings take returning production into account, and I posted a thread last week about how high he has Miami in his returning production numbers (He has Miami as having the #1 offense in the country in terms of production returning, if you don't remember).

So he has Miami at #8 here. #11 on offense, #13 on defense.

The gator is #12.

.....

FSU is #61.

No disrespect... but I'm tired of hearing about pre-season hype

Time for Manny & Co. to prove it on the field
 
No disrespect... but I'm tired of hearing about pre-season hype

Time for Manny & Co. to prove it on the field

None taken, and none directed towards you as well, and I say this in the least ****est way possible, but if this is how you feel, don't read it. And I don't blame you. Nobody hoists an SP+ trophy at the end of the year. But it's February 9th. We won't hit a field for anything to be proven on for 6 months.

And with that, let me continue my sobbing as I now have to spend time with my family on weekends.
 
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