Bill Connelly's SP+ bullish on the Canes

[fincane]

It’s now or never for Manny, no excuses. Injuries/recovery be damned.

We can pretend that this is real but it isn't. Barring an absolute disaster, Manny is gonna get a full graduating class and 4 years. We know Blake James aint looking for a reason to fire him and Richt had just finished a 7-6 year and the only reason he wasn't coaching in '19 is because he knew he had to fire his people and chose to quit rather than do it. Diaz may be a dead man walking in 2022 but he'll be Zombie Diaz because he won't be going anywhere before then.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

Still not an excuse.

In today’s era of college football you don’t have to have a Redshirt Junior QB in order to win, TF & Red F’s have had great success early on & lead their teams to winning season since guys like Jalen Hurts & Trevor Lawrence both lead their team to National championship games as TF’s.

Oklahoma went 9-2 last year with Spencer rattler as a Red Frosh with no experience & a first year starter.

If King is not healthy, yes it wouldn’t be great for the offense & team overall, but either TVD or Garcia would still have enough talent around them to lead us to a winning season, unless they’re simply not good enough & if they’re not then those are two bad evals that will set us back a few years.

I understand the propensity for fans to wanna temper expectations at all costs I get it, but at some point people have to take the training wheels off for Manny & not constantly come up with a reason to let him off the hook. Just based on the talent on the team (Blue-chip ratio), improvements on the coaching staff & the schedule overall, even if Jake Garcia had to start as a TF there’s no excuse to lose more than 2 games this season.

Otherwise, if there’s always a clutch to let Manny slip away for another season without feeling heat for disappointment & not winning the Coastal, then when does he get held accountable? After a while it will turn into the dead end of the Folden years all over again, every season there was always some disengaging excuse for the inevitable let down & even then you had people goin, “Just give him one more year, we still haven’t recovered from (insert excuse here)!”

If TVD ain’t ready to go, then that’s a failure by the staff, we get a full Spring/Summer/Fall this year & we know King won’t be ready for Spring & probably won’t participate much in Summer workouts, so TVD has plenty of time to get ready this offseason. Miami can’t be the only program in America that can never win unless we have an experienced QB at the helm, lots of teams play brand new guys at QB every year & they keep rolling without missing a beat.

It’s now or never for Manny, no excuses. Injuries/recovery be damned.

This is all fair, especially given the weakness of the schedule. The only two teams that really should even be in the game with us are Alabama and UNC. However, looking at the schedule, we have a bye before UNC, so we're guaranteed to lose that game. I'm half-joking there, but seriously, if we continue to look awful off byes and start games slow and sloppy, that to me is somewhat more important than the record on its own merits.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

We can pretend that this is real but it isn't. Barring an absolute disaster, Manny is gonna get a full graduating class and 4 years. We know Blake James aint looking for a reason to fire him and Richt had just finished a 7-6 year and the only reason he wasn't coaching in '19 is because he knew he had to fire his people and chose to quit rather than do it. Diaz may be a dead man walking in 2022 but he'll be Zombie Diaz because he won't be going anywhere before then.

1) If Diaz regresses next year, he's gone. No question in my mind.
2) I still don't get how y'all don't get BLAKE JAMES IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HC. The Trustees lead the process and approve the hire, and if James doesn't jump on firing a guy when needed, the Trustees will take care of that as well. James is a figurehead. That's it. I seriously doubt the Board is ready to have another Al Golden situation.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

There isn’t a single credible excuse to not win every game on our schedule after game one.

We play UNC after a bye week, so they might put up more yards that last season.

 

[fincane]

1) If Diaz regresses next year, he's gone. No question in my mind.
2) I still don't get how y'all don't get BLAKE JAMES IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HC. The Trustees lead the process and approve the hire, and if James doesn't jump on firing a guy when needed, the Trustees will take care of that as well. James is a figurehead. That's it. I seriously doubt the Board is ready to have another Al Golden situation.

What about Miami the AD and the sainted board of trustees make you think a regression gets him fired guaranteed? They let Golden come back after 6-7. It took 58 to nothing in his 5th year to get him fired. They let James take the lead on the Diaz hiring. If Diaz goes 8-4 he's going nowhere.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

What about Miami the AD and the sainted board of trustees make you think a regression gets him fired guaranteed? They let Golden come back after 6-7. It took 58 to nothing in his 5th year to get him fired. They let James take the lead on the Diaz hiring. If Diaz goes 8-4 he's going nowhere.

You don't have to believe me. I'm telling you. The HC does not get hired without the majority of the Board approving it. They didn't "let James" do anything.

The Board is clearly wising up, and frustration with lackluster results is growing. We're finally spending something that looks like real money, and Diaz was given a chance. If you want any further proof, look at his contract status as of today. Golden got to come back in part because of the NCAA investigation, in part because he was keeping the program clean, and in part because we were paying him precisely D!CK F@*KING S#!T.

 

[Memnon]

We can pretend that this is real but it isn't. Barring an absolute disaster, Manny is gonna get a full graduating class and 4 years. We know Blake James aint looking for a reason to fire him and Richt had just finished a 7-6 year and the only reason he wasn't coaching in '19 is because he knew he had to fire his people and chose to quit rather than do it. Diaz may be a dead man walking in 2022 but he'll be Zombie Diaz because he won't be going anywhere before then.

I’m not saying he’s going to get fired if we have a bad season, I’m saying amongst the fans he has no more excuses, meaning if he don’t win 10 games & the Coastal this year, it doesn’t matter what Blake James does, Manny will have lost all leeway he had with the fans & once things go toxic it only becomes a matter of time before it reaches a fever pitch...

Manny still has a portion of the fansbase willing to see how things turn out this year, he hasn’t hit Defcon1 levels yet.

Because trust me, if we don’t have a good season this year, the 22 season will be dark with the fans, he won’t have anymore excuses & people will tune him out in a way that makes it beyond clear he’s a lame duck.

When I say no excuses, I’m not talking about Blake James, that mf’er is a professional excuse maker lol, he’ll always make excuses, I’m talking about the consensus amongst the fans, meaning he won’t have a leg to stand on with most of his if he doesn’t deliver this season & while people may think that’s trivial, the truth is, at Miami once the fans mark you for dead, there’s no recovering from that.

None of the previous coaches before Manny outlasted the fan heat, even Folden getting 5 years completely lost a majority of the fan base a whole year before he was fired & those last dying days before the Clemson embarrassment was a very contentious time in the program, the fans absolutely hated Al Folden & despite the steadfast support from the AD, fans wanted no parts of him at Miami anymore, he had worn out his welcome.

I don’t think that will happen with Manny, but the point I’m making is, if he doesn’t want it to go down that road he better win the coastal or else he’ll invoke that same spirit & it won’t be pretty. He’s ran out of excuses.

He either wins the Coastal this year or he’ll lose the fans completely & once he does that, the Grim Reaper will be following him around everywhere he goes in year 4.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

I’m not saying he’s going to get fired if we have a bad season, I’m saying amongst the fans he has no more excuses, meaning if he don’t win 10 games & the Coastal this year, it doesn’t matter what Blake James does, Manny will have lost all leeway he had with the fans & once things go toxic it only becomes a matter of time before it reaches a fever pitch...

Manny still has a portion of the fansbase willing to see how things turn out this year, he hasn’t hit Defcon1 levels yet.

Because trust me, if we don’t have a good season this year, the 22 season will be dark with the fans, he won’t have anymore excuses & people will tune him out in a way that makes it beyond clear he’s a lame duck.

When I say no excuses, I’m not talking about Blake James, that mf’er is a professional excuse maker lol, he’ll always make excuses, I’m talking about the consensus amongst the fans, meaning he won’t have a leg to stand on with most of his if he doesn’t deliver this season & while people may think that’s trivial, the truth is, at Miami once the fans mark you for dead, there’s no recovering from that.

None of the previous coaches before Manny outlasted the fan heat, even Folden getting 5 years completely lost a majority of the fan base a whole year before he was fired & those last dying days before the Clemson embarrassment was a very contentious time in the program, the fans absolutely hated Al Folden & despite the steadfast support from the AD, fans wanted no parts of him at Miami anymore, he had worn out his welcome.

I don’t think that will happen with Manny, but the point I’m making is, if he doesn’t want it to go down that road he better win the coastal or else he’ll invoke that same spirit & it won’t be pretty. He’s ran out of excuses.

He either wins the Coastal this year or he’ll lose the fans completely & once he does that, the Grim Reaper will be following him around everywhere he goes in year 4.

I honestly don't even think this is about Diaz at this point. If Diaz can't get it right, after Coker falling apart, Shannon not cutting it, the Golden debacle and Richt's utter ineptitude on offense, I think football itself at The U is at stake. I don't think we'll ever shutter the program, but I do think a logical decision may be made that it's not worth the effort or the money. Some people may say that happened with Golden, but they're wrong because the response to getting rid of Golden was to spend much more than we ever have on an HC to get Richt.

IMO, if the powers that be look at this and go "we're spending the money and STILL can't get it right," the response is much more likely to be "stop spending the money" than "spend more than we already are."

 

[fincane]

You don't have to believe me. I'm telling you. The HC does not get hired without the majority of the Board approving it. They didn't "let James" do anything.

The Board is clearly wising up, and frustration with lackluster results is growing. We're finally spending something that looks like real money, and Diaz was given a chance. If you want any further proof, look at his contract status as of today. Golden got to come back in part because of the NCAA investigation, in part because he was keeping the program clean, and in part because we were paying him precisely D!CK F@*KING S#!T.

They let James do it because they didn't tell him to slow the F down and do an actual search. I don't care that they gave their approval. They didn't stop him in his tracks before the idea of his left the station. So what did they actually do but give Blake what he wanted? They weren't gonna fire Richt after 7-6. Just "force" him to fire his friends allegedly. I have my doubts if Richt told them to **** off that they woulda actually done anything about it.

So Golden got to keep driving the program into ground because he wasn't a pain their *** financially and optically? Well thats a great endorsement for them.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

They let James do it because they didn't tell him to slow the F down and do an actual search. I don't care that they gave their approval. They didn't stop him in his tracks before the idea of his left the station. So what did they actually do but give Blake what he wanted? They weren't gonna fire Richt after 7-6. Just "force" him to fire his friends allegedly. I have my doubts if Richt told them to **** off that they woulda actually done anything about it.

So Golden got to keep driving the program into ground because he wasn't a pain their *** financially and optically? Well thats a great endorsement for them.

I find it absolutely hilarious, the unbelievable nerve someone like you has, to attack and deride people who give millions of dollars of their own money to The U, while you sit here and ***** on message boards. How much have you donated to effectuate change?

The important players on the Board wanted to go get Diaz. That's why James went and got him. Any notion to the contrary is myopic at absolute best.

Again, for the nine billionth time on here... The University of Miami is a SCHOOL FIRST. And they owe you exactly nothing.

 

[The Franchise]

I’m not saying he’s going to get fired if we have a bad season, I’m saying amongst the fans he has no more excuses, meaning if he don’t win 10 games & the Coastal this year, it doesn’t matter what Blake James does, Manny will have lost all leeway he had with the fans & once things go toxic it only becomes a matter of time before it reaches a fever pitch...

Manny still has a portion of the fansbase willing to see how things turn out this year, he hasn’t hit Defcon1 levels yet.

Because trust me, if we don’t have a good season this year, the 22 season will be dark with the fans, he won’t have anymore excuses & people will tune him out in a way that makes it beyond clear he’s a lame duck.

When I say no excuses, I’m not talking about Blake James, that mf’er is a professional excuse maker lol, he’ll always make excuses, I’m talking about the consensus amongst the fans, meaning he won’t have a leg to stand on with most of his if he doesn’t deliver this season & while people may think that’s trivial, the truth is, at Miami once the fans mark you for dead, there’s no recovering from that.

None of the previous coaches before Manny outlasted the fan heat, even Folden getting 5 years completely lost a majority of the fan base a whole year before he was fired & those last dying days before the Clemson embarrassment was a very contentious time in the program, the fans absolutely hated Al Folden & despite the steadfast support from the AD, fans wanted no parts of him at Miami anymore, he had worn out his welcome.

I don’t think that will happen with Manny, but the point I’m making is, if he doesn’t want it to go down that road he better win the coastal or else he’ll invoke that same spirit & it won’t be pretty. He’s ran out of excuses.

He either wins the Coastal this year or he’ll lose the fans completely & once he does that, the Grim Reaper will be following him around everywhere he goes in year 4.

Exactly how I see it. I’m a student of coaching stints going off the rails, and once they lose the fans, the whole thing goes toxic. Then it’s over.

Tell the dopey blowhards on here who think the fans play no role in getting coaches fired.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

100%. It'll be written a million times from now till then, but I'll say it with y'all. Coastal or he can't win here and it's time to turn our backs.

And it's time, right now, because there are a lot of 2022 and 2023 kids who are waiting to see what we do on the field. The way you truly win big is within recruiting classes, not X's and O's, and 2021 was a very good class. Winning this year and backing that class up with one in the Top 10 in 2022 is how you start to truly build a sustaining program. You can't mix in classes in the 20's.

 

[NJshoreCane]

Looks like ol' Bill had us nailed last year.
Here's to extending his streak

Connelly’s SP+ has the U at #23

Sounds about right to me: Each offseason, after the recruiting season has been finalized and the first major wave of transfer portal entries has come and gone, I publish preliminary SP+ ratings for the coming season. I base these projections on three primary factors, weighted by their...

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