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Bill Connelly 2019 Miami Preview

Didn’t read it but funny that the first comment in this thread is about the article covering all the bases and the last says that Bill did not do any homework before writing it lol as usual, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
 
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manny co-hosted bill's podcast a few years ago (it's a good listen) so i think bill probably as a good feel for our team and philosophy, as far as national writers go. manny also recently retweeted bill's tweet showing our defensive stats by his model and it wouldn't surprise me if they've talked at some point this offseason... manny clearly pays attention to his work. (i think bill credits manny with coming up with the stat or at least the phrase "havoc rate" but i might be misremembering that.)
 
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Overall another solid write up by BC. And putting us at 19th S+P wise is I would think about as accurate as any publication/writer has done thus far. It all comes down to 3 key areas - QB, OL, and ST. We improve even 2 out of 3 areas and we’re looking at minimum a 2017 type season (sans the 4 game losing streak). Personally I see all 3 improving, and along with it our W totals. 9 wins seems as good as any starting point with a high of 11-12. It will be how Diaz turns the team around when/if we face adversity, either in-game or after a loss. That’s where I see Manolo’s abilities at the helm making the difference between a mid-season slide of multiple games or a loss being that; singular. I know it’s wild and crazy to predict us ending up with 10+ wins but I just see it out of this team this year. It’s in 2020 when the ACC catches up to Enos’ offense that it will be a true test of Diaz and staff to continue pushing the envelope and improving the Canes as such that we end up on the precipice of the CFP playoffs. We’ll know then if by knocking on the door if it opens or not.
 
He's the best in the business, bar none.

But we're all fans, we didn't need him to tell us what he did in the article. We knew the defense was elite. We knew the offense was abysmal. And we knew the punting was comical.

If the defense plays close to the way they did last year, even with a small step back, the offense improves, and Hedley isn't a quadriplegic like Feagles was, this is an easy 9 win team.

But it's all on finding a competent QB, first and foremost. The OL wasn't awful last year. It wasn't great, but the QB play is what derailed the offense (and the coaching), not the OL play. Having a kid at the position who can complete passes that a High School kid can makes your OL look a whole lot better, trust me. Just hope 1 of these 3 kids can be above average. That's all we need. The skill position talent and defense will win a lot of games if the QB just helps out.
 
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AllAboutTheU said:
He's great at going in-depth on numbers. It's a valid critique for me to say that he was out of his depth talking about the roster. He so said that we were thin at DL and an injury away from relying on freshman. I love Bill C and listen to PAPN religiously. Doesn't make his work flawless. His model and rankings mean much more as the season goes on anyways, but I think it's a good starting ground for projections.
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Agree that the model improves in-season.

He's right about the DL though. Garvin, Patchan, Hill are a good rotation of upperclassmen. If one goes down, we'd be relying heavily on Rousseau and Harvey. I know it's May so we think all of our Greentree All-Americans will develop into world beaters, but they're still freshmen (RS in Rousseau's case) and therefore unproven.

At DT it's not so much about playing freshmen as it is that about having no proven players at the position period. Bethel is fine but hasn't been a difference maker while at UM. The potential of Nesta and Ford is tantalizing, but they haven't done much in real games.
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Agree that the model improves in-season.

He's right about the DL though. Garvin, Patchan, Hill are a good rotation of upperclassmen. If one goes down, we'd be relying heavily on Rousseau and Harvey. I know it's May so we think all of our Greentree All-Americans will develop into world beaters, but they're still freshmen (RS in Rousseau's case) and therefore unproven.

At DT it's not so much about playing freshmen as it is that about having no proven players at the position period. Bethel is fine but hasn't been a difference maker while at UM. The potential of Nesta and Ford is tantalizing, but they haven't done much in real games.
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Garvin, Patchan, Hill, Rousseau and Joyner. All before "relying" on a true freshman in Harvey. The fact that he said an injury away from relying on freshman led me to believe that he meant true freshman, because RS Frosh being in the rotation isn't a big deal.

Bethel has been a rotation guy for the past few years. We just aren't "relying" on freshman at either slot. A standout freshman could crack the rotation, but we won't be relying on those guys.

Like I said, his model and rationale behind the numbers are great. He's just not the most up to speed when it comes to roster analysis/scheme stuff because that isn't his ballpark. And the fact that we aren't a top team like Bama or Clemson this year, national guys will certainly know a lot less about our roster.
 
AllAboutTheU said:
Garvin, Patchan, Hill, Rousseau and Joyner. All before "relying" on a true freshman in Harvey. The fact that he said an injury away from relying on freshman led me to believe that he meant true freshman, because RS Frosh being in the rotation isn't a big deal.

Bethel has been a rotation guy for the past few years. We just aren't "relying" on freshman at either slot. A standout freshman could crack the rotation, but we won't be relying on those guys.

Like I said, his model and rationale behind the numbers are great. He's just not the most up to speed when it comes to roster analysis/scheme stuff because that isn't his ballpark. And the fact that we aren't a top team like Bama or Clemson this year, national guys will certainly know a lot less about our roster.
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Joyner is a LB now. Guess he knows more about our roster than you do!

But in all seriousness, if you - a die hard fan - can miss a position change like that, I think you should cut him some slack on this minor point. Overall it's a great article and very fair.
 
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ALLoverCANE said:
Joyner is a LB now. Guess he knows more about our roster than you do!

But in all seriousness, if you - a die hard fan - can miss a position change like that, I think you should cut him some slack on this minor point. Overall it's a great article and very fair.
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Mixing up the switch from LB to DE in my head. I wasn't typing out an article for masses to read, but no need to go on about this ad nauseum. I already acknowledged that I value his projections, I'm just critiquing something that I see consistently in his pieces as something that needs work.
 
TI_Inspire said:
"You know what compounds offensive efficiency issues? The worst punting in the country. Miami was 130th in punt efficiency, which, combined with offensive woes, meant opponents’ starting field position was the 33.5, seventh-worst in the country."

lol we actually had the worst punting in the country.
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We didnt need to read this to know that lol
 
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AllAboutTheU said:
Eh, sure, but a guy like Bill C has incredible access to programs. It's really not that difficult to just fact check quickly. That's kind of what journalists are supposed to do.
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I see your point. I think we are more forgiving of a guy that has admittedly produced more quality work that almost anyone in regards to NCAA stats and info. Phil Steele would be another that can slide on minor miscues as he has so much quality content rushed to press in such a short amount of time each Winter and Spring. He definitely has a network of researchers and affiliates that help him. I don't believe Connelly has assistance to that extent.
 
TI_Inspire said:
"You know what compounds offensive efficiency issues? The worst punting in the country. Miami was 130th in punt efficiency, which, combined with offensive woes, meant opponents’ starting field position was the 33.5, seventh-worst in the country."

lol we actually had the worst punting in the country.
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Surely that doesn't surprise you?
 
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The article is great at providing us statistical data not just from last year but over a 10 plus year duration. The man is dead on with it and a painful reminder how bad UM football has been. Hopefully Diaz and Co. change past trends from this decade and I trust that he will.

Going into the season cautiously optimistic. QB and OL play is a mystery to me plus we can't have defensive starters going down as depth is more of a mystery. Upside is we find ourselves a QB, OL plays decent and Shaq leads our D, we go 11-1 and play Clemson in Charlotte come December.
 
rayray said:
manny co-hosted bill's podcast a few years ago (it's a good listen) so i think bill probably as a good feel for our team and philosophy, as far as national writers go. manny also recently retweeted bill's tweet showing our defensive stats by his model and it wouldn't surprise me if they've talked at some point this offseason... manny clearly pays attention to his work. (i think bill credits manny with coming up with the stat or at least the phrase "havoc rate" but i might be misremembering that.)
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"havoc rate"?

That's great. That's a concept Jimmy Johnson would love.

Manny is a philosophical descendant of Jimmy. They want to pressure and force. Jimmy was willing to give up more yardage on the ground by leaving gaps unprotected but making plays in the backfield. Sacks, TFLs, and turnovers are the goal.
 
Havoc
The percentage of plays in which a defense either recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble, or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up). If QB hurries were a reliable stat (at the college level, there is far too much inconsistency in how they are recorded), they would be included here, too.

In the team stat profiles, Havoc Rate is both presented as an overall measure and broken out into unit-specific defensive line, linebacker, and defensive back measures.

www.footballstudyhall.com

The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary

Here is a glossary for the terms used in the 2018 college football season previews at SB Nation.
www.footballstudyhall.com www.footballstudyhall.com
 
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