Storm surge doesn't care what category a hurricane is. It can be just as bad for a 1 as it is for a 5 depending on what it hits. The area east of Panama City is supposed to get between 9-13ft.
A storm that sneaks up on you, an area that might not invest in infrastructure to prepare for storms like cities on the east coast of the state do, and a storm surge that is assumed to be a major problem. That could be nothing (hopefully) or it could be a major problem.
Football is fun and games. Not real life. Hope that storm goes out with a whimper.