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And so it begins…..CFP rankings chat

IMO the ND-Pitt thing is win-win

If ND wins, they make the playoff and (let's say USF makes CFP as G5) - we are likely the ONLY team in the country with Wins over 2 Playoff teams

if ND loses, that clears one team (we need 5) for us to leapfrog from now until season's end...
also gives us an eventual (potential) Pitt win as a top20-25 win (USF, ND, Pitt Wins all would rank in that range)

OU losing at least one
UT losing at least one
Vandy (likely) losing to Tenn.
BYU (likely) losing to TCU and/or @ Cincy

those 4 plus ND losing and we are WITHOUT QUESTION in as an At-Large (I.e. ranked #10 or better)

even if 4 of those 5 above lose, we still probably organically hop Utah by season's end.


JUST. FUGGING. WIN.
 
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OU still has @Bama, Mizz, LSU TrumpyCane thinks there's no chance they go undefeated there, **** they could lose all 3

Texas has @UGA, Arkansas, A&M, don't think they'll go 3-0, might even go 1-2, or 0-3

BYU has TCU, @Cinci, UCF, can see 2 losses there

Vandy has Kentucky, @Tenn, don't see them beating Tenn and Kentucky is tricky

Utah has the easiest schedule with @Baylor, Kansas State, @Kansas, those first two are tricky and Kansas isn't terrible

Oregon still has Minn, USC, @Washington

That's 6 teams in front who TrumpyCane don't see winning all their games and we only need 5 of those teams to lose a game
 
hurricaneman said:
Here's a better argument that I've come around to. Pitt beating Notre Dame and GT would have them ranked very close to what Notre Dame currently is, probably around #15.

Would you rather Notre Dame win, taking up a playoff spot, but giving Miami an early season quality win OR would you rather Miami beat a similarly ranked team the last game of the season while still having Notre Dame ranked and out of the playoff picture?

If Pitt beats Notre Dame then Notre Dame will finish the season somewhere in the 15-20 range. The Pitt game will be vs a ranked opponent AND it's likely Pitt will remain ranked if we beat them. So it's very possible Miami would have wins over ranked USF, Notre Dame, and Pitt.
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Since we MUST beat Pitt anyhow, I'd rather have Pitt as high as possible before we knock them off, and then give ND a couple of weeks to "recover" in the rankings (given their golden name and halo).

Memories are short. See, generally, ALABAMA's ranking, when they lost to a terrible F$U team in September...
 
I have a sneaking suspicion that we come out with our crap together this week and start playing like we did in the beginning of the season.
The payers have to be energized after seeing the rankings, ****, every fan I've spoken to that's the first thing they say, "did you see the rankings?"


please, please Jesus...
 
I have spent an absurd amount of time simulating the last three weeks on that mred tiebreaker calculator - there are so many potential ways for us to sneak into the ACCCG my head is spinning. **** Mario for his late season swoons and making me waste time on this!

I think the biggest things that need to happen to really clear the path are Clemson over Louisville and Pitt over GT, and Duke needs to drop at least 1 of its last 3 which I think it will. Even if those come to fruition, there are still a bunch of ways this could go. We’ll probably end up needing Va Tech to upend UVA on the 29th or some ****.

It would have been nice if we had just taken care of business. It’s great to be….(lol)
 
F-MarioCristobal said:
Need to move up 5 spots and I see 3 teams ahead of us guaranteed to lose at least 1 game - Texas is dropping to Georgia and/or A&M, Oklahoma isn't going to Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama, and Vanderbilt isn't beating Tennessee. Still need some help.

Help would be - jump Utah organically (resume shouldn't even be a question - no idea why they're higher anyway), BYU could lose to Cincinnati, would like to see Pitt beat ND, which would also help if we beat them on 11/29, adds another top 15 type win to the resume. Someone is losing the Big12 championship - committee could opt to "punish" the loser and let them fall out.

Oregon plays USC and at Washington. They look vulnerable. If USC beats Oregon, do they jump us and Oregon remain ahead of us? Very possible. All the more reason why we need Pitt to beat ND and that to be a top 15 type team when we play them. They've already taken all of the stock away from our week 1 W over ND. USC has a bad loss to Illinois and a loss to ND, who we beat. Hopefully transient property applies. USC losing to Iowa and beating Oregon could solve all of our problems.

Or the ACC auto bid would come down to:

1. Win out
2. Duke beat Virginia and then lose to WF or Virginia beat Duke and then lose to VT
3. Clemson beat Louisville
4. Louisville beat SMU
5. Pitt beat GT

Nothing too crazy but a ton of moving pieces and lots that has to go right. Winning out for us is probably the most unlikely thing that can happen of all of the scenarios.
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I disgree that Pitt beating ND is in our interest at all. ND win is our golden goose to get in playoffs. If we both win out I'm very confident we end up ranking ahead of them in the final rankings. Every single other H2H out of top teams has the H2H victor ranking ahead by committee. uVA over Louisville, BYU over Utah, Bama over UGA, USC over Michigan, etc. by the end of the year especially if we end with road win against Pitt, we will end up ranked ahead of ND. Meanwhile if ND loses to Pitt there goes our top 10 win and what the committee is saying is the only good ACC OOC win of the season. Nah we want that in our bank. What we want is ND to barely beat Pitt, Pitt to then beat GTech (which 100% would keep them in top 25 for their game against us), and then us beating Pitt by a larger MOV than ND beat Pitt. That is absolutely best case scenario for us. Then we'd have 3 legit top 25 wins over ND, Pitt, and USF. We will have beaten the 2nd highest ranked ACC team, and have the ACCs best OOC win. We will have a win against a team Texas lost to (UF) a win against the team Bama lost to (FSU)...

If BYU loses another game they are out imo. Utah had absolutely zero business being above us last week or this week.

I'm not so confident UTenn beats Vandy. But let's just avoid all that and have Kentucky beat Vandy next week. Also Florida winning out would actually be elite for us. If they beat Ole Miss and UTenn we're looking good and then UTenn beating Vandy is great.


The B1G is getting 3 teams in minimum I think. Sure there is a world they only get 2, it just doesn't seem like the committee would reward the ACC in that scenario. They'd probably just use that to push Utah in given their bs ranking. So we better just hope Ohio state beats Michigan. If Oregon loses to USC, we need USC to beat Iowa I think. Cause then Oregon's best win will be to an unranked Iowa. But even still they probably are still ahead of us... USC will absolutely jump us if they beat Oregon.... Also I'd expect Illinois to jump Cinci by end of season too which lessens that 2pt loss USC had... So just best to hope Oregon locks in their spot and no other B1G team gets in tbh
 
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I would be wary of Texas even if they lose to Georgia this weekend. They would have 3 losses, but if they found a way to beat a highly rated Texas A&M team the last week I can guaran****ingtee you there would be plenty of calls for them to get in.
 
BoludoCane21 said:
IMO the ND-Pitt thing is win-win

If ND wins, they make the playoff and (let's say USF makes CFP as G5) - we are likely the ONLY team in the country with Wins over 2 Playoff teams

if ND loses, that clears one team (we need 5) for us to leapfrog from now until season's end...
also gives us an eventual (potential) Pitt win as a top20-25 win (USF, ND, Pitt Wins all would rank in that range)

OU losing at least one
UT losing at least one
Vandy (likely) losing to Tenn.
BYU (likely) losing to TCU and/or @ Cincy

those 4 plus ND losing and we are WITHOUT QUESTION in as an At-Large (I.e. ranked #10 or better)

even if 4 of those 5 above lose, we still probably organically hop Utah by season's end.


JUST. FUGGING. WIN.
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💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯

I think 10-2 gets us in. The CFP doesn’t seem to be overlooking those wins against ND and USF and I really do believe USF is in the drivers seat for the G5 spot. I’ve actually been rooting for them all year because of this potential. Was shocked and annoyed when they lost to Memphis. I left the bar they were up 10 in the 4th. Checked my phone when I got home and saw they lost.

I don’t think there’s any way the CFP doesn’t let us in IF ND and USF are in. There won’t be another team with 2 wins over 2 CFP teams. They know they can’t get away with snubbing us…we can and will…make them an offer they can’t refuse
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯

I think 10-2 gets us in. The CFP doesn’t seem to be overlooking those wins against ND and USF and I really do believe USF is in the drivers seat for the G5 spot. I’ve actually been rooting for them all year because of this potential. Was shocked and annoyed when they lost to Memphis. I left the bar they were up 10 in the 4th. Checked my phone when I got home and saw they lost.

I don’t think there’s any way the CFP doesn’t let us in IF ND and USF are in. There won’t be another team with 2 wins over 2 CFP teams. They know they can’t get away with snubbing us…we can and will…make them an offer they can’t refuse
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Like, you better let us in or we're telling Mom?

Or we'll take our ball and go home?

Or are we heading over to Calder to decapitate a horse and leave the head in the bed of the Mack Rhoades, Chairman of the CFP?

cat squirrel GIF
 
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