And so it begins…..CFP rankings chat

[NC_Canes_11]

Geo gives a nice write up

This is wrong. Just like last year, we aren’t getting in over another 10-2 ACC team who plays in the conference title game, when we don’t. The only caveat that could come up is if there’s that massive tie breaker scenario at 6-2 where the teams who go to Charlotte get there via random draw. But then you get an SMU last year ordeal where they don’t penalize you for playing in a conf title game.

That’s why our chances are minuscule. You need ND to lose and then complete and utter ACC chaos to make it even worth watching the final selection show. Not too mention you’d likely also need the B12 to be a 1 bid league

 

[Tru C]

Four innings left, down six.

 

[mosthated305]

Am I the only one outraged about Utah?

That one makes no sense. Apparently the committee values the Big 12 higher than the ACC. Utah at 13 is a joke. TT at 8 is a joke.

 

[DMoney]

This is wrong. Just like last year, we aren’t getting in over another 10-2 ACC team who plays in the conference title game, when we don’t. The only caveat that could come up is if there’s that massive tie breaker scenario at 6-2 where the teams who go to Charlotte get there via random draw. But then you get an SMU last year ordeal where they don’t penalize you for playing in a conf title game.

That’s why our chances are minuscule. You need ND to lose and then complete and utter ACC chaos to make it even worth watching the final selection show. Not too mention you’d likely also need the B12 to be a 1 bid league

SMU was 11-1.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

Am I the only one outraged about Utah?

Utah is the ND model with a worse schedule. They’ve only played 2 good teams and lost to both of them.

 

[cookies]

I’m much more confident about 10-2 Miami making the playoffs than I am about us winning four straight. If we finish like that, I’d bet we are in.

Sadly this is on point. NC State and Pitt are going to be close.

 

[TexasCane90]

We’ve gotta win out and Mario has to tell Dawson to run up the score,

Starters need to play full games we’ve gotta have real lopsided wins for national perception of us “figuring it out” and dominating

 

[NC_Canes_11]

SMU was 11-1.

They got in as a 2 win at large team over 2 loss Miami, with a much worse schedule. There is no way a 10-3 ACC team who loses that 3rd game in Charlotte, gets left out for a 10-2 Miami who didn’t make Charlotte.

The committee themselves said they weren’t gonna punish teams for losing in conf title games.

 

[cookies]

Am I the only one outraged about Utah?

I wasn’t until I realized how high up they are. Now i am.

It feels like the committee arbitrarily awards teams for beating ranked opponents who become unranked. If beating Cincy is so impressive, then they should stand on that and rank them ahead of Tennessee and/or others.

 

[DMoney]

They got in as a 2 win at large team over 2 loss Miami, with a much worse schedule. There is no way a 10-3 ACC team who loses that 3rd game in Charlotte, gets left out for a 10-2 Miami who didn’t make Charlotte.

The committee themselves said they weren’t gonna punish teams for losing in conf title games.

But that 10-2 team wouldn’t have a better resume than Miami going in. SMU did because they were 11-1.

 

[Moonman]

What we've learned in the CFP era is that it's pointless to schedule tough non-conference games. We should just schedule cupcakes because early season wins versus tough opponents mean absolutely nothing.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

But that 10-2 team wouldn’t have a better resume than Miami going in. SMU did because they were 11-1.

10-2 playing in Charlotte is a better resume than 10-2 sitting at home. Again don’t take my word for it. Take the committees.

You cannot punish teams for losing in their conference title game if that’s the final factor in keeping them out of the CFP. Conferences would immediately start to cancel them.

 

[TwentySix]

10-2 playing in Charlotte is a better resume than 10-2 sitting at home. Again don’t take my word for it. Take the committees.

You cannot punish teams for losing in their conference title game if that’s the final factor in keeping them out of the CFP. Conferences would immediately start to cancel them.

The point is 10-2 Miami would be ranked ahead of 10-2 pick a team going in, presumably. Losing the game wouldn’t hurt them, but it wouldn’t bump them up.

 

[cookies]

There are other scenarios but this is a straightforward one to me:

- GT loses to Georgia
- Louisville with no Isaac Brown and tricky schedule drops at least one
- Vandy loses to Auburn or @Tennessee
- 10-2 no conference title game Utah is not getting in over 10-2 Miami
- OU loses to either Bama, Mizzou or LSU
- Texas loses to either TAMU or @Georgia

Those are all pretty conservative picks. Vandy concerns me a little but is the SEC really going to go from 3 bids to 5 bids? Who is their best win?

The hard part is winning four straight. History and trajectory says we flop. I think the committee is baking that in. But if we’re sitting there at 10-2 with good wins, I’d be very surprised if we weren’t in.

Louisville losing to SMU serves as a tricky conundrum for us; it’d put them out of the ACC championship conference game and boost SMU’s status. However, if ND can be above Miami with a close loss to them; then, no real reason why the same can’t apply to us and Louisville.

Pittsburgh has a fascinating finish. ND, GT, then us. Im unsure if a 11-2 (ACC championship conference game loss) UVA would make the playoffs or not; but we’d have the common opponent victory in NC State.

a 9-3 season will feel like **** on earth. Mario goes 10-2 and I can visit the board in 2026 without my fellow inmates about to revolt & pooling together money for a fire Mario banner.

 

[cookies]

The playoff cannot stay at 12 with a G5 guarantee. It feels ridiculous

 

[cookies]

A reminder of us, and SMU, being ranked ahead of ACC championship winner Clemson last year.

 

[NC_Canes_11]

The point is 10-2 Miami would be ranked ahead of 10-2 pick a team going in, presumably. Losing the game wouldn’t hurt them, but it wouldn’t bump them up.

If GT wins out and loses to UGA, I have a hard time believing Miami would jump them. It’s clear “good losses” don’t hurt teams. And you’re gonna punish a team for losing to a presumed top 5 team when they’ve already clinched an ACC title berth? Same with Ville. Say they win out and then lose to UK. They beat us and are 10-2 going to ACC title. How are we gonna jump them?

Don’t get me wrong I hope y’all are right, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Bc those are the two most likely teams to win out IMO.

 

[TemplarCane]

Heather does not pass the eye test. And probably does not pass the smell test either.

 

[TOcane]

Am I the only one outraged about Utah?

No, was the first one that caught my eye.

 

[Gocanes1990]

I’m as critical on Mario as anyone. By the scheduling Absolutely kills this team. Two byes on three weeks was insane. Killed momentum and provided us no time to get healthy / regroup for final stretch. Program may be cursed.