ANALYTICS & STATE OF THE PROGRAM : PART 2 (COACHING & ENWP)

Joined
Aug 5, 2019
Messages
13
It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. We took a look at the TALENT in the Part 1 of this observation. Next we will be looking into COACHING. Let's continue our in-depth, analytical look at The U.


COACHING
The definition of a COACH is a person who is responsible for managing and training a person or a team. COACHING is a process that aims to improve performance and focuses on the 'here and now' rather than on the distant past or future. Coaching is unlocking a person's potential to maximize their own performance.

How GOOD are college football coaches? Are they winning just because they have a more talented roster? Do they even win the games if they have the more talented roster? These are the hard questions that we hope to find a resolution to or at the very least, close the gap. There are some new analytic terms I want to introduce as we move forward.

dd1.png


So how do we find out the TRUE VALUE for a Head Coach. Is it winning the games you are supposed to? Is it winning the games where you have the exact talent as your opponent? Is it winning games where you are the underdog? These 3 questions are excellent ones. Individually, they each have advantages & flaws for an overall evaluation.

Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) gives you probably the best of the 3 individually. It takes into account how good you are at coaching against an opponent with LESSER talent than your own roster. Where it doesn't help you is if you have a roster with 0.00 Blue Chip Average (BCAvg.). There are 44 out of the 130 Programs that have a 0.00 BCAvg. entering the 2019 season. So none of the 44 teams has any advantage.

Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) is the good for analyzing how good your coach is in winning against teams of EQUAL value. It is a great indicator for how well a head coach out coaches the opposing coach and his respected program. The draw back here is that only 6 programs within the Top 25 BCAvg's have the same average. (13.00) Florida St. / Penn St., (12.00) Florida / Notre Dame, (7.25) Ole Miss / UCLA. The NWP is more a main component for programs outside the Top 25 BCAvg & lower (such as the 44 Programs with a 0.00 BCAvg.).

Unexpected Win Percentage (UWP) is a good tool for measuring how well a head coach can WIN the underdog game. How well a coach can out-scheme or outplay a GREATER opponent. This is useful for most teams outside the Top 25 BCAvg., teams in the bottom of their respective Power 5 Conference. But it's especially useful for smaller Conferences as a whole such as Conference USA, the MAC, American Athletic Conference, Mountain West, Sun Belt & some Independent schools. The flaw here is most teams in the Top 10 BCAvg. don't play in too many UWP games. Nick Saban hasn't coached a UWP game in almost a decade.

These 3 have their Pros & Cons. But there must be a way to find a fair evaluation between coaches who coach small schools and bigger programs. In Baseball, when we try to value Hitters we combine Walks & Hits to estimate their On Base Percentage (OBP). Likewise we will combine the 2 most helpful tools to help us find a Head Coach's TRUE VALUE. By combining both Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) & Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) we arrive at Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) ENWP.

Expected/Neutral Win Percentage (ENWP) gives us the best opportunity to evaluate EVERY coach of EVERY program, equally. So we talked about BCAvg on Part 1 of this Study. In BCAvg we average the last 4 Recruiting Classes including the approaching season. For our ENWP we took the average of the previous 4 seasons coached, so from (2015-2018). Coaching is a business & just like the NFL it is a "What have YOU done for ME lately league." Just because you won a National Championship 10 years ago doesn't necessarily mean you are still a great coach. Some coaches won't be eligible for this if they they are new to being a Head Coach, such as Manny Diaz. Others may not be on the list because they haven't coached a game in this time period, such as North Carolina's Mack Brown. Below are the TOP 25 ENWP Head Coaches entering the 2019 College Football Season. (WARNING: Some Names WILL surprise you. Fair Warning.)


COACH​
(2019) SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
Dabo SwinneyClemson95.6% (43-2)95.6% (43-2)
0.0% (0-0)​
85.7% (12-2)
Lincoln RileyOklahoma95.5% (21-1)95.2% (20-1)100.0% (1-0)50.0% (3-3)
Jeff TedfordFresno St.94.1% (16-1)93.8% (15-1)100.0% (1-0)54.5% (6-5)
Jim McElwainCentral Michigan94.1% (16-1)94.1% (16-1)0.0% (0-0)35.3% (6-11)
Nick SabanAlabama93.2% (55-4)93.2% (55-4)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
Jeff BrohmPurdue87.0% (20-3)50.0% (1-1)90.5% (19-2)50.0% (15-15)
Scott SatterfieldLouisville87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-0)87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-5)
Dave ClawsonWake Forest86.7% (13-2)0.0% (0-0)86.7% (13-2)40.0% (12-18)
Kirk FerentzIowa84.0% (21-4)81.0% (17-4)100.0% (4-0)57.1% (16-12)
Paul ChrystWisconsin83.8% (31-6)83.8% (31-6)0.0% (0-0)64.7% (11-6)
Mike GundyOklahoma St.82.9% (29-6)87.5% (28-4)33.3% (1-2)47.1% (8-9)
Chris PetersenWashington82.9% (34-7)82.5% (33-7)100.0% (1-0)38.5% (5-8)
Kyle WhittinghamUtah81.8% (18-4)81.8% (18-4)0.0% (0-0)59.4% (19-13)
James FranklinPenn St.81.8% (36-8)83.7% (36-7)0.0% (0-1)22.2% (2-7)
Kirby SmartGeorgia81.6% (31-7)81.6% (31-7)0.0% (0-0)25.0% (1-3)
Jim HarbaughMichigan80.9% (38-9)82.6% (38-8)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-5)
Dan MullenFlorida80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.9% (12-16)
Dave DoerenNorth Carolina St.80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.3% (11-15)
Bryan HarsinBoise St.80.0% (36-9)79.1% (34-9)100.0% (2-0)60.0% (6-4)
Pat FitzgeraldNorthwestern80.0% (20-5)78.3% (18-5)100.0% (0-0)57.1% (16-12)
P.J. FleckMinnesota79.4% (27-7)87.5% (7-1)76.9% (20-6)33.3% (6-12)
Steve AddazioBoston College78.9% (15-4)100.0% (4-0)73.3% (11-4)29.0% (9-22)
Dino BabersSyracuse78.3% (18-5)64.3% (9-5)100.0% (9-0)37.0% (10-17)
Ed OrgeronLSU78.3% (18-5)77.3% (17-5)100.0% (1-0)33.3% (1-2)
Mike LeachWashington St.77.8% (14-4)91.7% (11-1)50.0% (3-3)67.6% (23-11)

"Heavy is the Head that wears the Crown." 3 of the Top 5 ENWP Coaches were in the College Football Playoff this past season: Dabo Swinney (95.6), Lincoln Riley (95.5) & Nick Saban (93.2). These three coaches are considered the best in the business up to this point. Also adding to the point, if Urban Meyer would have returned to Ohio St., his ENWP would have been 88.2% (6th Best). Of the Analytical Categories, this is the one that has all three (Swinney, Riley Saban) together in the Top 5 of any category. This may be the best measurement we currently have to measure the TRUE VALUE of a Head Coach. Below are the Top 25 BCAvg Rosters & their respected Head Coaches. Only 9 of the Programs have a Top 25 ENWP Head Coach. The 9 Coaches are highlighted ORANGE.

SCHOOL​
BCAvg​
CONFERENCE​
COACH​
ENWP​
1. Alabama20.75SEC - WESTNick Saban93.2% (55-4)
2. Georgia18.75SEC - EASTKirby Smart81.6% (31-7)
3. Ohio St.18.50BIG 10 - EASTRyan DayN/A
4. Texas15.25BIG 12Tom Herman71.1% (32-13)
5. LSU14.75SEC - WESTEd Orgeron78.3% (18-5)
6. Michigan14.50BIG 10 - EASTJim Harbaugh80.9% (38-9)
7. Oklahoma14.25BIG 12Lincoln Riley95.5% (21-1)
8. USC13.50PAC 12 - SOUTHClay Helton70.3% (26-11)
9. Auburn13.25SEC - WESTGus Malzahn67.4% (29-14)
10. Florida St.13.00ACC - ATLANTICWillie Taggart67.5% (27-13)
10. Penn St.13.00BIG 10 - EASTJames Franklin81.8% (36-8)
12. Florida12.50SEC - EASTDan Mullen80.8% (21-5)
12. Notre Dame12.50INDEPENDENTBrian Kelly71.1% (32-13)
14. Clemson12.00ACC - ATLANTICDabo Swinney95.6% (43-2)
15. MIAMI11.50ACC - COASTALMANNY DIAZN/A
16. Texas A&M10.75SEC - WESTJimbo Fisher72.7% (32-12)
17. Washington10.25PAC 12 - NORTHChris Petersen82.9% (34-7)
18. Tennessee9.00SEC - EASTJeremy Pruitt44.4% (4-5)
19. Oregon8.75PAC 12 - NORTHMario Cristobal63.6% (7-4)
20. Stanford8.00PAC 12 - NORTHDavid Shaw76.3% (29-9)
21. Ole Miss7.25SEC - WESTMatt Luke68.8% (11-5)
21. UCLA7.25PAC 12 - SOUTHChip Kelly18.2% (2-9)
23. South Carolina6.25SEC - EASTWill Muschamp77.3% (17-5)
24. Nebraska6.00BIG 10 - WESTScott Frost69.0% (20-9)
25. Arkansas5.75SEC - WESTChad Morris51.7% (15-14)

So how good have the Canes' last 4 head coaches done. As a reminder we used 24/7 Sports as our reference. All the data goes as far back as the 2005 Season because we have the averages of the 2005, 2004, 2003 & 2002 respectively. The data before that time period varies and is inconclusive, so we cannot use it. So for example, we can only use data for Larry Coker for his 2005 & 2006 seasons. His 2001-2004 are inconclusive due to the Blue Chip data presented for those years.


So here are the past Canes Head Coaches....

dd2.png

To be a Top 25 Head Coach, typically your ENWP has to be at least 76.0% - 79.2% depending on the year. NONE of the 3 Reached this plateau CONSISTENTLY during their head coaching tenure. The Canes have had a Top 5 Roster every one of these years. Even the Al Golden "Cloud over the Program" Years, WE STILL HAD TOP 25 TALENT. What makes it worse is Randy Shannon & Larry Coker had TOP 10 BCAvg. Rosters EVERY YEAR during their tenure! PREACHING TO THE CHOIR, RIGHT? Enough with the past, let's move forward.



2019 MIAMI HURRICANES PREVIEW

Last year's Cane's squad had an 9.75 BCAvg which was 16th Nationally. Miami enters the 2019 season with a 11.50 BCAvg. which ranks them 15th Nationally. To put it in perspective, this is the Best Miami BCAvg. in a decade. Miami is expected to WIN every game except for FLORIDA ST. & FLORIDA via BCAvg. & EWP. Below is Miami's schedule along with their opponents BCAvg, Head Coach & chances of Victory or Upset.

d5.png

Miami is a BCAvg Underdog in 2 games, FLORIDA & FLORIDA ST. Now at this point in time there may be people ready to strangle me for us being UNDERDOGS to our 2 Biggest Rivals! RELAX. Remember in the beginning of this article I said you need 3 THINGS TO BE SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING & DEVELOPMENT. Florida St. has had the best BCAvg in the ACC since 2011 & that's including Clemson. TALENT is just ONE component. You still need the other TWO. So let's take a closer look at Dan Mullen (Florida) & Willie Taggart (Florida St.)


DAN MULLEN (FLORIDA)

Dan Mullen is a Top 20 ENWP Coach. Tied for 17th along with North Carolina St.'s Dave Doeren to be precise. I know that's hard to fathom considering his 10-33 record against Top 25 Opponents in his career. Mullen is also 6-15 against Top 10 Teams in his career. These stats would scream mediocrity to the naked eye. But his 80.8 ENWP means he wins the majority of games he has the same or better roster than his opponent. In this case, that is us, Miami. From a BCAvg. standpoint, this will be the most talented roster Dan Mullen has ever coached. Last year's Gator squad held a 9.50 BCAvg. which was good enough for 18th on the list. This year they jump up to 12.50 which rates them 12th.

How do the Canes win this game? First and foremost it starts with the defense. THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, RIGHT? The goal for the defense should be 21, to not give up more than 21 points to the Gators. Dan Mullen is 3-13 (18.8% WIN PROBABILITY) when his offense scores 21 points or less. The other part of the equation has to be Dan Enos & the Offense. Dan Enos was the Offensive Coordinator for Arkansas from 2015-2017. His Offense faced Dan Mullen's former team (Mississippi St.) 3 times. Manny Diaz happened to be Mullen's Defensive Coordinator for the 2015 season. Below are the Stats from those 3 encounters.

THE DAN ENOS EFFECT...vs DAN MULLEN
dd3.png

Dan Enos has had success against Mullen coached teams, including a 50 & 58 point performance in their first 2 meetings. Enos coached at Alabama as the Quarterback Coach. But as an Offensive Coordinator, this will be the most talented roster he has ever had as a play caller. As an OC at Arkansas, his BCAvg was as follows (2015) 4.75 (2016) 5.25 (2017) 5.25.



WILLIE TAGGART (FLORIDA ST.)
Willie Taggart is coaching the 10th Best BCAvg. Roster in the Nation. That's where the positives end with Willie Taggart. He coached well enough to be a Top 25 coach in 2015 & 2016 at South Florida. His success hasn't translated to the Power 5 as he has finished below his Roster's BCAvg Ranking in 2017 (Oregon) & a disastrous 2018 (Florida St.) campaign. As Miami's BCAvg climbed from 9.75 to 11.25, Florida St.'s BCAvg dropped from 14.25 to 13.00 for the upcoming 2019 season. Below is the EWP breakdown for Willie Taggart.



COACH​
SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
2015South Florida77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-0)77.8% (7-2)25.0% (1-3)
2016South Florida88.9 (8-1)0.0% (0-0)88.9 (8-1)66.7% (2-1)
2017Oregon70.0% (7-3)77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-1)0.0% (0-2)
2018Florida St.41.7% (5-7)41.7% (5-7)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
TOTAL67.5% (27-13)57.1% (12-9)78.9% (15-4)33.3% (3-6)


For Florida St. fans, it must an uneasy feeling for the start of the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee. The most talented BCAvg roster comes into his hands & he significantly underachieves. Taggart has entered the realm of Al Golden & Randy Shannon. As Canes fans, we are loving it! Manny Diaz has to be loving his chances going into this matchup.



Overall, it's been the same expectations FOREVER. WIN the Coastal at MINIMUM. The CANES have the TALENT to make some noise, but can Manny Diaz lead them to that next step. What happens this season, regardless of Roster Talent, will ultimately rest on his shoulders. This concludes the SECOND PART of this series. We looked into ROSTER TALENT with BCAvg in PART 1. Just now we COMPLETED PART 2 with COACHING & using ENWP. For PART 3: DEVELOPMENT there are a lot of avenues to put into an equation:
  • TOTAL PLAYERS Drafted
  • RECRUITED STARS AVG Drafted
  • RECRUITED AVERAGE
  • AVERAGE DRAFT Class
  • PLAYERS Named to the ALL-AMERICAN / ALL-CONFERENCE Teams
  • Statistical GROWTH from players FRESHMAN through GRADUATION among several other FACTORS

Congrats to Jarren Williams on winning the QB1 job. It was well deserved. Hopefully anyone choosing to read this article got something out of it. Maybe a better idea or a different angle of how to judge Head Coaches & their performances for the 2019 season & moving forward.


IT'S GREAT TO BE A MIAMI HURRICANE!



 

Attachments

  • dd3.png
    dd3.png
    55.4 KB · Views: 13
  • d5.png
    d5.png
    115.4 KB · Views: 14
Advertisement
It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. We took a look at the TALENT in the Part 1 of this observation. Next we will be looking into COACHING. Let's continue our in-depth, analytical look at The U.


COACHING
The definition of a COACH is a person who is responsible for managing and training a person or a team. COACHING is a process that aims to improve performance and focuses on the 'here and now' rather than on the distant past or future. Coaching is unlocking a person's potential to maximize their own performance.

How GOOD are college football coaches? Are they winning just because they have a more talented roster? Do they even win the games if they have the more talented roster? These are the hard questions that we hope to find a resolution to or at the very least, close the gap. There are some new analytic terms I want to introduce as we move forward.


So how do we find out the TRUE VALUE for a Head Coach. Is it winning the games you are supposed to? Is it winning the games where you have the exact talent as your opponent? Is it winning games where you are the underdog? These 3 questions are excellent ones. Individually, they each have advantages & flaws for an overall evaluation.

Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) gives you probably the best of the 3 individually. It takes into account how good you are at coaching against an opponent with LESSER talent than your own roster. Where it doesn't help you is if you have a roster with 0.00 Blue Chip Average (BCAvg.). There are 44 out of the 130 Programs that have a 0.00 BCAvg. entering the 2019 season. So none of the 44 teams has any advantage.

Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) is the good for analyzing how good your coach is in winning against teams of EQUAL value. It is a great indicator for how well a head coach out coaches the opposing coach and his respected program. The draw back here is that only 6 programs within the Top 25 BCAvg's have the same average. (13.00) Florida St. / Penn St., (12.00) Florida / Notre Dame, (7.25) Ole Miss / UCLA. The NWP is more a main component for programs outside the Top 25 BCAvg & lower (such as the 44 Programs with a 0.00 BCAvg.).

Unexpected Win Percentage (UWP) is a good tool for measuring how well a head coach can WIN the underdog game. How well a coach can out-scheme or outplay a GREATER opponent. This is useful for most teams outside the Top 25 BCAvg., teams in the bottom of their respective Power 5 Conference. But it's especially useful for smaller Conferences as a whole such as Conference USA, the MAC, American Athletic Conference, Mountain West, Sun Belt & some Independent schools. The flaw here is most teams in the Top 10 BCAvg. don't play in too many UWP games. Nick Saban hasn't coached a UWP game in almost a decade.

These 3 have their Pros & Cons. But there must be a way to find a fair evaluation between coaches who coach small schools and bigger programs. In Baseball, when we try to value Hitters we combine Walks & Hits to estimate their On Base Percentage (OBP). Likewise we will combine the 2 most helpful tools to help us find a Head Coach's TRUE VALUE. By combining both Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) & Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) we arrive at Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) ENWP.

Expected/Neutral Win Percentage (ENWP) gives us the best opportunity to evaluate EVERY coach of EVERY program, equally. So we talked about BCAvg on Part 1 of this Study. In BCAvg we average the last 4 Recruiting Classes including the approaching season. For our ENWP we took the average of the previous 4 seasons coached, so from (2015-2018). Coaching is a business & just like the NFL it is a "What have YOU done for ME lately league." Just because you won a National Championship 10 years ago doesn't necessarily mean you are still a great coach. Some coaches won't be eligible for this if they they are new to being a Head Coach, such as Manny Diaz. Others may not be on the list because they haven't coached a game in this time period, such as North Carolina's Mack Brown. Below are the TOP 25 ENWP Head Coaches entering the 2019 College Football Season. (WARNING: Some Names WILL surprise you. Fair Warning.)


COACH​
(2019) SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
Dabo SwinneyClemson95.6% (43-2)95.6% (43-2)
0.0% (0-0)​
85.7% (12-2)
Lincoln RileyOklahoma95.5% (21-1)95.2% (20-1)100.0% (1-0)50.0% (3-3)
Jeff TedfordFresno St.94.1% (16-1)93.8% (15-1)100.0% (1-0)54.5% (6-5)
Jim McElwainCentral Michigan94.1% (16-1)94.1% (16-1)0.0% (0-0)35.3% (6-11)
Nick SabanAlabama93.2% (55-4)93.2% (55-4)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
Jeff BrohmPurdue87.0% (20-3)50.0% (1-1)90.5% (19-2)50.0% (15-15)
Scott SatterfieldLouisville87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-0)87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-5)
Dave ClawsonWake Forest86.7% (13-2)0.0% (0-0)86.7% (13-2)40.0% (12-18)
Kirk FerentzIowa84.0% (21-4)81.0% (17-4)100.0% (4-0)57.1% (16-12)
Paul ChrystWisconsin83.8% (31-6)83.8% (31-6)0.0% (0-0)64.7% (11-6)
Mike GundyOklahoma St.82.9% (29-6)87.5% (28-4)33.3% (1-2)47.1% (8-9)
Chris PetersenWashington82.9% (34-7)82.5% (33-7)100.0% (1-0)38.5% (5-8)
Kyle WhittinghamUtah81.8% (18-4)81.8% (18-4)0.0% (0-0)59.4% (19-13)
James FranklinPenn St.81.8% (36-8)83.7% (36-7)0.0% (0-1)22.2% (2-7)
Kirby SmartGeorgia81.6% (31-7)81.6% (31-7)0.0% (0-0)25.0% (1-3)
Jim HarbaughMichigan80.9% (38-9)82.6% (38-8)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-5)
Dan MullenFlorida80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.9% (12-16)
Dave DoerenNorth Carolina St.80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.3% (11-15)
Bryan HarsinBoise St.80.0% (36-9)79.1% (34-9)100.0% (2-0)60.0% (6-4)
Pat FitzgeraldNorthwestern80.0% (20-5)78.3% (18-5)100.0% (0-0)57.1% (16-12)
P.J. FleckMinnesota79.4% (27-7)87.5% (7-1)76.9% (20-6)33.3% (6-12)
Steve AddazioBoston College78.9% (15-4)100.0% (4-0)73.3% (11-4)29.0% (9-22)
Dino BabersSyracuse78.3% (18-5)64.3% (9-5)100.0% (9-0)37.0% (10-17)
Ed OrgeronLSU78.3% (18-5)77.3% (17-5)100.0% (1-0)33.3% (1-2)
Mike LeachWashington St.77.8% (14-4)91.7% (11-1)50.0% (3-3)67.6% (23-11)

"Heavy is the Head that wears the Crown." 3 of the Top 5 ENWP Coaches were in the College Football Playoff this past season: Dabo Swinney (95.6), Lincoln Riley (95.5) & Nick Saban (93.2). These three coaches are considered the best in the business up to this point. Also adding to the point, if Urban Meyer would have returned to Ohio St., his ENWP would have been 88.2% (6th Best). Of the Analytical Categories, this is the one that has all three (Swinney, Riley Saban) together in the Top 5 of any category. This may be the best measurement we currently have to measure the TRUE VALUE of a Head Coach. Below are the Top 25 BCAvg Rosters & their respected Head Coaches. Only 9 of the Programs have a Top 25 ENWP Head Coach. The 9 Coaches are highlighted ORANGE.

SCHOOL​
BCAvg​
CONFERENCE​
COACH​
ENWP​
1. Alabama20.75SEC - WESTNick Saban93.2% (55-4)
2. Georgia18.75SEC - EASTKirby Smart81.6% (31-7)
3. Ohio St.18.50BIG 10 - EASTRyan DayN/A
4. Texas15.25BIG 12Tom Herman71.1% (32-13)
5. LSU14.75SEC - WESTEd Orgeron78.3% (18-5)
6. Michigan14.50BIG 10 - EASTJim Harbaugh80.9% (38-9)
7. Oklahoma14.25BIG 12Lincoln Riley95.5% (21-1)
8. USC13.50PAC 12 - SOUTHClay Helton70.3% (26-11)
9. Auburn13.25SEC - WESTGus Malzahn67.4% (29-14)
10. Florida St.13.00ACC - ATLANTICWillie Taggart67.5% (27-13)
10. Penn St.13.00BIG 10 - EASTJames Franklin81.8% (36-8)
12. Florida12.50SEC - EASTDan Mullen80.8% (21-5)
12. Notre Dame12.50INDEPENDENTBrian Kelly71.1% (32-13)
14. Clemson12.00ACC - ATLANTICDabo Swinney95.6% (43-2)
15. MIAMI11.50ACC - COASTALMANNY DIAZN/A
16. Texas A&M10.75SEC - WESTJimbo Fisher72.7% (32-12)
17. Washington10.25PAC 12 - NORTHChris Petersen82.9% (34-7)
18. Tennessee9.00SEC - EASTJeremy Pruitt44.4% (4-5)
19. Oregon8.75PAC 12 - NORTHMario Cristobal63.6% (7-4)
20. Stanford8.00PAC 12 - NORTHDavid Shaw76.3% (29-9)
21. Ole Miss7.25SEC - WESTMatt Luke68.8% (11-5)
21. UCLA7.25PAC 12 - SOUTHChip Kelly18.2% (2-9)
23. South Carolina6.25SEC - EASTWill Muschamp77.3% (17-5)
24. Nebraska6.00BIG 10 - WESTScott Frost69.0% (20-9)
25. Arkansas5.75SEC - WESTChad Morris51.7% (15-14)

So how good have the Canes' last 4 head coaches done. As a reminder we used 24/7 Sports as our reference. All the data goes as far back as the 2005 Season because we have the averages of the 2005, 2004, 2003 & 2002 respectively. The data before that time period varies and is inconclusive, so we cannot use it. So for example, we can only use data for Larry Coker for his 2005 & 2006 seasons. His 2001-2004 are inconclusive due to the Blue Chip data presented for those years.


So here are the past Canes Head Coaches....
To be a Top 25 Head Coach, typically your ENWP has to be at least 76.0% - 79.2% depending on the year. NONE of the 3 Reached this plateau CONSISTENTLY during their head coaching tenure. The Canes have had a Top 5 Roster every one of these years. Even the Al Golden "Cloud over the Program" Years, WE STILL HAD TOP 25 TALENT. What makes it worse is Randy Shannon & Larry Coker had TOP 10 BCAvg. Rosters EVERY YEAR during their tenure! PREACHING TO THE CHOIR, RIGHT? Enough with the past, let's move forward.



2019 MIAMI HURRICANES PREVIEW

Last year's Cane's squad had an 9.75 BCAvg which was 16th Nationally. Miami enters the 2019 season with a 11.50 BCAvg. which ranks them 15th Nationally. To put it in perspective, this is the Best Miami BCAvg. in a decade. Miami is expected to WIN every game except for FLORIDA ST. & FLORIDA via BCAvg. & EWP. Below is Miami's schedule along with their opponents BCAvg, Head Coach & chances of Victory or Upset.
Miami is a BCAvg Underdog in 2 games, FLORIDA & FLORIDA ST. Now at this point in time there may be people ready to strangle me for us being UNDERDOGS to our 2 Biggest Rivals! RELAX. Remember in the beginning of this article I said you need 3 THINGS TO BE SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING & DEVELOPMENT. Florida St. has had the best BCAvg in the ACC since 2011 & that's including Clemson. TALENT is just ONE component. You still need the other TWO. So let's take a closer look at Dan Mullen (Florida) & Willie Taggart (Florida St.)


DAN MULLEN (FLORIDA)

Dan Mullen is a Top 20 ENWP Coach. Tied for 17th along with North Carolina St.'s Dave Doeren to be precise. I know that's hard to fathom considering his 10-33 record against Top 25 Opponents in his career. Mullen is also 6-15 against Top 10 Teams in his career. These stats would scream mediocrity to the naked eye. But his 80.8 ENWP means he wins the majority of games he has the same or better roster than his opponent. In this case, that is us, Miami. From a BCAvg. standpoint, this will be the most talented roster Dan Mullen has ever coached. Last year's Gator squad held a 9.50 BCAvg. which was good enough for 18th on the list. This year they jump up to 12.50 which rates them 12th.

How do the Canes win this game? First and foremost it starts with the defense. THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, RIGHT? The goal for the defense should be 21, to not give up more than 21 points to the Gators. Dan Mullen is 3-13 (18.8% WIN PROBABILITY) when his offense scores 21 points or less. The other part of the equation has to be Dan Enos & the Offense. Dan Enos was the Offensive Coordinator for Arkansas from 2015-2017. His Offense faced Dan Mullen's former team (Mississippi St.) 3 times. Manny Diaz happened to be Mullen's Defensive Coordinator for the 2015 season. Below are the Stats from those 3 encounters.

THE DAN ENOS EFFECT...vs DAN MULLEN
View attachment 93539
Dan Enos has had success against Mullen coached teams, including a 50 & 58 point performance in their first 2 meetings. Enos coached at Alabama as the Quarterback Coach. But as an Offensive Coordinator, this will be the most talented roster he has ever had as a play caller. As an OC at Arkansas, his BCAvg was as follows (2015) 4.75 (2016) 5.25 (2017) 5.25.



WILLIE TAGGART (FLORIDA ST.)
Willie Taggart is coaching the 10th Best BCAvg. Roster in the Nation. That's where the positives end with Willie Taggart. He coached well enough to be a Top 25 coach in 2015 & 2016 at South Florida. His success hasn't translated to the Power 5 as he has finished below his Roster's BCAvg Ranking in 2017 (Oregon) & a disastrous 2018 (Florida St.) campaign. As Miami's BCAvg climbed from 9.75 to 11.25, Florida St.'s BCAvg dropped from 14.25 to 13.00 for the upcoming 2019 season. Below is the EWP breakdown for Willie Taggart.



COACH​
SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
2015South Florida77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-0)77.8% (7-2)25.0% (1-3)
2016South Florida88.9 (8-1)0.0% (0-0)88.9 (8-1)66.7% (2-1)
2017Oregon70.0% (7-3)77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-1)0.0% (0-2)
2018Florida St.41.7% (5-7)41.7% (5-7)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
TOTAL67.5% (27-13)57.1% (12-9)78.9% (15-4)33.3% (3-6)


For Florida St. fans, it must an uneasy feeling for the start of the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee. The most talented BCAvg roster comes into his hands & he significantly underachieves. Taggart has entered the realm of Al Golden & Randy Shannon. As Canes fans, we are loving it! Manny Diaz has to be loving his chances going into this matchup.



Overall, it's been the same expectations FOREVER. WIN the Coastal at MINIMUM. The CANES have the TALENT to make some noise, but can Manny Diaz lead them to that next step. What happens this season, regardless of Roster Talent, will ultimately rest on his shoulders. This concludes the SECOND PART of this series. We looked into ROSTER TALENT with BCAvg in PART 1. Just now we COMPLETED PART 2 with COACHING & using ENWP. For PART 3: DEVELOPMENT there are a lot of avenues to put into an equation:
  • TOTAL PLAYERS Drafted
  • RECRUITED STARS AVG Drafted
  • RECRUITED AVERAGE
  • AVERAGE DRAFT Class
  • PLAYERS Named to the ALL-AMERICAN / ALL-CONFERENCE Teams
  • Statistical GROWTH from players FRESHMAN through GRADUATION among several other FACTORS

Congrats to Jarren Williams on winning the QB1 job. It was well deserved. Hopefully anyone choosing to read this article got something out of it. Maybe a better idea or a different angle of how to judge Head Coaches & their performances for the 2019 season & moving forward.


IT'S GREAT TO BE A MIAMI HURRICANE!




Holy sht, good stuff, bro. But, can we schedule an appointment for this? I'm a little busy right now. How about tomorrow's morning constitutional, does that work for you?
 
Advertisement
Fun, but bad experimental design

Would not publish.

win % not tte same thing as head coaching ability...a lot more go in to winning than that

Million things besides coaching could be causing

And ****...you need to control for some variables my dude
 
It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. We took a look at the TALENT in the Part 1 of this observation. Next we will be looking into COACHING. Let's continue our in-depth, analytical look at The U.


COACHING
The definition of a COACH is a person who is responsible for managing and training a person or a team. COACHING is a process that aims to improve performance and focuses on the 'here and now' rather than on the distant past or future. Coaching is unlocking a person's potential to maximize their own performance.

How GOOD are college football coaches? Are they winning just because they have a more talented roster? Do they even win the games if they have the more talented roster? These are the hard questions that we hope to find a resolution to or at the very least, close the gap. There are some new analytic terms I want to introduce as we move forward.


So how do we find out the TRUE VALUE for a Head Coach. Is it winning the games you are supposed to? Is it winning the games where you have the exact talent as your opponent? Is it winning games where you are the underdog? These 3 questions are excellent ones. Individually, they each have advantages & flaws for an overall evaluation.

Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) gives you probably the best of the 3 individually. It takes into account how good you are at coaching against an opponent with LESSER talent than your own roster. Where it doesn't help you is if you have a roster with 0.00 Blue Chip Average (BCAvg.). There are 44 out of the 130 Programs that have a 0.00 BCAvg. entering the 2019 season. So none of the 44 teams has any advantage.

Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) is the good for analyzing how good your coach is in winning against teams of EQUAL value. It is a great indicator for how well a head coach out coaches the opposing coach and his respected program. The draw back here is that only 6 programs within the Top 25 BCAvg's have the same average. (13.00) Florida St. / Penn St., (12.00) Florida / Notre Dame, (7.25) Ole Miss / UCLA. The NWP is more a main component for programs outside the Top 25 BCAvg & lower (such as the 44 Programs with a 0.00 BCAvg.).

Unexpected Win Percentage (UWP) is a good tool for measuring how well a head coach can WIN the underdog game. How well a coach can out-scheme or outplay a GREATER opponent. This is useful for most teams outside the Top 25 BCAvg., teams in the bottom of their respective Power 5 Conference. But it's especially useful for smaller Conferences as a whole such as Conference USA, the MAC, American Athletic Conference, Mountain West, Sun Belt & some Independent schools. The flaw here is most teams in the Top 10 BCAvg. don't play in too many UWP games. Nick Saban hasn't coached a UWP game in almost a decade.

These 3 have their Pros & Cons. But there must be a way to find a fair evaluation between coaches who coach small schools and bigger programs. In Baseball, when we try to value Hitters we combine Walks & Hits to estimate their On Base Percentage (OBP). Likewise we will combine the 2 most helpful tools to help us find a Head Coach's TRUE VALUE. By combining both Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) & Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) we arrive at Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) ENWP.

Expected/Neutral Win Percentage (ENWP) gives us the best opportunity to evaluate EVERY coach of EVERY program, equally. So we talked about BCAvg on Part 1 of this Study. In BCAvg we average the last 4 Recruiting Classes including the approaching season. For our ENWP we took the average of the previous 4 seasons coached, so from (2015-2018). Coaching is a business & just like the NFL it is a "What have YOU done for ME lately league." Just because you won a National Championship 10 years ago doesn't necessarily mean you are still a great coach. Some coaches won't be eligible for this if they they are new to being a Head Coach, such as Manny Diaz. Others may not be on the list because they haven't coached a game in this time period, such as North Carolina's Mack Brown. Below are the TOP 25 ENWP Head Coaches entering the 2019 College Football Season. (WARNING: Some Names WILL surprise you. Fair Warning.)


COACH​
(2019) SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
Dabo SwinneyClemson95.6% (43-2)95.6% (43-2)
0.0% (0-0)​
85.7% (12-2)
Lincoln RileyOklahoma95.5% (21-1)95.2% (20-1)100.0% (1-0)50.0% (3-3)
Jeff TedfordFresno St.94.1% (16-1)93.8% (15-1)100.0% (1-0)54.5% (6-5)
Jim McElwainCentral Michigan94.1% (16-1)94.1% (16-1)0.0% (0-0)35.3% (6-11)
Nick SabanAlabama93.2% (55-4)93.2% (55-4)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
Jeff BrohmPurdue87.0% (20-3)50.0% (1-1)90.5% (19-2)50.0% (15-15)
Scott SatterfieldLouisville87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-0)87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-5)
Dave ClawsonWake Forest86.7% (13-2)0.0% (0-0)86.7% (13-2)40.0% (12-18)
Kirk FerentzIowa84.0% (21-4)81.0% (17-4)100.0% (4-0)57.1% (16-12)
Paul ChrystWisconsin83.8% (31-6)83.8% (31-6)0.0% (0-0)64.7% (11-6)
Mike GundyOklahoma St.82.9% (29-6)87.5% (28-4)33.3% (1-2)47.1% (8-9)
Chris PetersenWashington82.9% (34-7)82.5% (33-7)100.0% (1-0)38.5% (5-8)
Kyle WhittinghamUtah81.8% (18-4)81.8% (18-4)0.0% (0-0)59.4% (19-13)
James FranklinPenn St.81.8% (36-8)83.7% (36-7)0.0% (0-1)22.2% (2-7)
Kirby SmartGeorgia81.6% (31-7)81.6% (31-7)0.0% (0-0)25.0% (1-3)
Jim HarbaughMichigan80.9% (38-9)82.6% (38-8)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-5)
Dan MullenFlorida80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.9% (12-16)
Dave DoerenNorth Carolina St.80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.3% (11-15)
Bryan HarsinBoise St.80.0% (36-9)79.1% (34-9)100.0% (2-0)60.0% (6-4)
Pat FitzgeraldNorthwestern80.0% (20-5)78.3% (18-5)100.0% (0-0)57.1% (16-12)
P.J. FleckMinnesota79.4% (27-7)87.5% (7-1)76.9% (20-6)33.3% (6-12)
Steve AddazioBoston College78.9% (15-4)100.0% (4-0)73.3% (11-4)29.0% (9-22)
Dino BabersSyracuse78.3% (18-5)64.3% (9-5)100.0% (9-0)37.0% (10-17)
Ed OrgeronLSU78.3% (18-5)77.3% (17-5)100.0% (1-0)33.3% (1-2)
Mike LeachWashington St.77.8% (14-4)91.7% (11-1)50.0% (3-3)67.6% (23-11)

"Heavy is the Head that wears the Crown." 3 of the Top 5 ENWP Coaches were in the College Football Playoff this past season: Dabo Swinney (95.6), Lincoln Riley (95.5) & Nick Saban (93.2). These three coaches are considered the best in the business up to this point. Also adding to the point, if Urban Meyer would have returned to Ohio St., his ENWP would have been 88.2% (6th Best). Of the Analytical Categories, this is the one that has all three (Swinney, Riley Saban) together in the Top 5 of any category. This may be the best measurement we currently have to measure the TRUE VALUE of a Head Coach. Below are the Top 25 BCAvg Rosters & their respected Head Coaches. Only 9 of the Programs have a Top 25 ENWP Head Coach. The 9 Coaches are highlighted ORANGE.

SCHOOL​
BCAvg​
CONFERENCE​
COACH​
ENWP​
1. Alabama20.75SEC - WESTNick Saban93.2% (55-4)
2. Georgia18.75SEC - EASTKirby Smart81.6% (31-7)
3. Ohio St.18.50BIG 10 - EASTRyan DayN/A
4. Texas15.25BIG 12Tom Herman71.1% (32-13)
5. LSU14.75SEC - WESTEd Orgeron78.3% (18-5)
6. Michigan14.50BIG 10 - EASTJim Harbaugh80.9% (38-9)
7. Oklahoma14.25BIG 12Lincoln Riley95.5% (21-1)
8. USC13.50PAC 12 - SOUTHClay Helton70.3% (26-11)
9. Auburn13.25SEC - WESTGus Malzahn67.4% (29-14)
10. Florida St.13.00ACC - ATLANTICWillie Taggart67.5% (27-13)
10. Penn St.13.00BIG 10 - EASTJames Franklin81.8% (36-8)
12. Florida12.50SEC - EASTDan Mullen80.8% (21-5)
12. Notre Dame12.50INDEPENDENTBrian Kelly71.1% (32-13)
14. Clemson12.00ACC - ATLANTICDabo Swinney95.6% (43-2)
15. MIAMI11.50ACC - COASTALMANNY DIAZN/A
16. Texas A&M10.75SEC - WESTJimbo Fisher72.7% (32-12)
17. Washington10.25PAC 12 - NORTHChris Petersen82.9% (34-7)
18. Tennessee9.00SEC - EASTJeremy Pruitt44.4% (4-5)
19. Oregon8.75PAC 12 - NORTHMario Cristobal63.6% (7-4)
20. Stanford8.00PAC 12 - NORTHDavid Shaw76.3% (29-9)
21. Ole Miss7.25SEC - WESTMatt Luke68.8% (11-5)
21. UCLA7.25PAC 12 - SOUTHChip Kelly18.2% (2-9)
23. South Carolina6.25SEC - EASTWill Muschamp77.3% (17-5)
24. Nebraska6.00BIG 10 - WESTScott Frost69.0% (20-9)
25. Arkansas5.75SEC - WESTChad Morris51.7% (15-14)

So how good have the Canes' last 4 head coaches done. As a reminder we used 24/7 Sports as our reference. All the data goes as far back as the 2005 Season because we have the averages of the 2005, 2004, 2003 & 2002 respectively. The data before that time period varies and is inconclusive, so we cannot use it. So for example, we can only use data for Larry Coker for his 2005 & 2006 seasons. His 2001-2004 are inconclusive due to the Blue Chip data presented for those years.


So here are the past Canes Head Coaches....
To be a Top 25 Head Coach, typically your ENWP has to be at least 76.0% - 79.2% depending on the year. NONE of the 3 Reached this plateau CONSISTENTLY during their head coaching tenure. The Canes have had a Top 5 Roster every one of these years. Even the Al Golden "Cloud over the Program" Years, WE STILL HAD TOP 25 TALENT. What makes it worse is Randy Shannon & Larry Coker had TOP 10 BCAvg. Rosters EVERY YEAR during their tenure! PREACHING TO THE CHOIR, RIGHT? Enough with the past, let's move forward.



2019 MIAMI HURRICANES PREVIEW

Last year's Cane's squad had an 9.75 BCAvg which was 16th Nationally. Miami enters the 2019 season with a 11.50 BCAvg. which ranks them 15th Nationally. To put it in perspective, this is the Best Miami BCAvg. in a decade. Miami is expected to WIN every game except for FLORIDA ST. & FLORIDA via BCAvg. & EWP. Below is Miami's schedule along with their opponents BCAvg, Head Coach & chances of Victory or Upset.
Miami is a BCAvg Underdog in 2 games, FLORIDA & FLORIDA ST. Now at this point in time there may be people ready to strangle me for us being UNDERDOGS to our 2 Biggest Rivals! RELAX. Remember in the beginning of this article I said you need 3 THINGS TO BE SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING & DEVELOPMENT. Florida St. has had the best BCAvg in the ACC since 2011 & that's including Clemson. TALENT is just ONE component. You still need the other TWO. So let's take a closer look at Dan Mullen (Florida) & Willie Taggart (Florida St.)


DAN MULLEN (FLORIDA)

Dan Mullen is a Top 20 ENWP Coach. Tied for 17th along with North Carolina St.'s Dave Doeren to be precise. I know that's hard to fathom considering his 10-33 record against Top 25 Opponents in his career. Mullen is also 6-15 against Top 10 Teams in his career. These stats would scream mediocrity to the naked eye. But his 80.8 ENWP means he wins the majority of games he has the same or better roster than his opponent. In this case, that is us, Miami. From a BCAvg. standpoint, this will be the most talented roster Dan Mullen has ever coached. Last year's Gator squad held a 9.50 BCAvg. which was good enough for 18th on the list. This year they jump up to 12.50 which rates them 12th.

How do the Canes win this game? First and foremost it starts with the defense. THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, RIGHT? The goal for the defense should be 21, to not give up more than 21 points to the Gators. Dan Mullen is 3-13 (18.8% WIN PROBABILITY) when his offense scores 21 points or less. The other part of the equation has to be Dan Enos & the Offense. Dan Enos was the Offensive Coordinator for Arkansas from 2015-2017. His Offense faced Dan Mullen's former team (Mississippi St.) 3 times. Manny Diaz happened to be Mullen's Defensive Coordinator for the 2015 season. Below are the Stats from those 3 encounters.

THE DAN ENOS EFFECT...vs DAN MULLEN
View attachment 93539
Dan Enos has had success against Mullen coached teams, including a 50 & 58 point performance in their first 2 meetings. Enos coached at Alabama as the Quarterback Coach. But as an Offensive Coordinator, this will be the most talented roster he has ever had as a play caller. As an OC at Arkansas, his BCAvg was as follows (2015) 4.75 (2016) 5.25 (2017) 5.25.



WILLIE TAGGART (FLORIDA ST.)
Willie Taggart is coaching the 10th Best BCAvg. Roster in the Nation. That's where the positives end with Willie Taggart. He coached well enough to be a Top 25 coach in 2015 & 2016 at South Florida. His success hasn't translated to the Power 5 as he has finished below his Roster's BCAvg Ranking in 2017 (Oregon) & a disastrous 2018 (Florida St.) campaign. As Miami's BCAvg climbed from 9.75 to 11.25, Florida St.'s BCAvg dropped from 14.25 to 13.00 for the upcoming 2019 season. Below is the EWP breakdown for Willie Taggart.



COACH​
SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
2015South Florida77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-0)77.8% (7-2)25.0% (1-3)
2016South Florida88.9 (8-1)0.0% (0-0)88.9 (8-1)66.7% (2-1)
2017Oregon70.0% (7-3)77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-1)0.0% (0-2)
2018Florida St.41.7% (5-7)41.7% (5-7)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
TOTAL67.5% (27-13)57.1% (12-9)78.9% (15-4)33.3% (3-6)


For Florida St. fans, it must an uneasy feeling for the start of the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee. The most talented BCAvg roster comes into his hands & he significantly underachieves. Taggart has entered the realm of Al Golden & Randy Shannon. As Canes fans, we are loving it! Manny Diaz has to be loving his chances going into this matchup.



Overall, it's been the same expectations FOREVER. WIN the Coastal at MINIMUM. The CANES have the TALENT to make some noise, but can Manny Diaz lead them to that next step. What happens this season, regardless of Roster Talent, will ultimately rest on his shoulders. This concludes the SECOND PART of this series. We looked into ROSTER TALENT with BCAvg in PART 1. Just now we COMPLETED PART 2 with COACHING & using ENWP. For PART 3: DEVELOPMENT there are a lot of avenues to put into an equation:
  • TOTAL PLAYERS Drafted
  • RECRUITED STARS AVG Drafted
  • RECRUITED AVERAGE
  • AVERAGE DRAFT Class
  • PLAYERS Named to the ALL-AMERICAN / ALL-CONFERENCE Teams
  • Statistical GROWTH from players FRESHMAN through GRADUATION among several other FACTORS

Congrats to Jarren Williams on winning the QB1 job. It was well deserved. Hopefully anyone choosing to read this article got something out of it. Maybe a better idea or a different angle of how to judge Head Coaches & their performances for the 2019 season & moving forward.


IT'S GREAT TO BE A MIAMI HURRICANE!





Great work!

I understand why you use the BCAvg, but it the 0 BCAvg teams distort the NWP. Mostly for coaches formerly at one of those schools.

The only other category that would be interesting would be "Peer Win Percentage" which I would define as opponents near your BCAvg. Say +/- 2.0 since the range is roughly 0 - 20. And exclude any teams that are 0.

I.e. If a team is 1.25 BCAvg, peer would be against all teams 0.25 - 3.25.



Also, I am curious where you bucket recruiting in your analysis? It was not in Talent or Coaching. I would say Development and Recruiting are separate skills, but recruiting is most often associated to a Coach and his staff.

Recruiting would make an interesting Part 4 if you are up for it, or could be added into Coaching. The catch I see is the school matters also. The same coach will get better players at a better school. To stick with BCAvg as the starting point (and all the caveats that come with it), my first guess would be: measure how much the coach adds or subtracts from the current BCAvg of the roster. So in effect show how well the coach can build a roster, year over year.

i.e. Last year Miami's roster was 9.25 BCAvg, this year the roster is 11.50 BCAvg. So Diaz would get +2.25 for the 2019 season.

Another idea would be to compare the schools average BCAvg over all years to each recruiting class BCAvg.



Great work and interesting to view the team this way.
 
It's a new season. A new era. A NEW MIAMI. But how do we make sure that we don't repeat the shortcomings of the past? In fact, what has caused us to fall so far from grace? Has our recruiting been bad? Is it the coach's fault? Are we not developing the players right? You need THREE things to be SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING, DEVELOPMENT. We took a look at the TALENT in the Part 1 of this observation. Next we will be looking into COACHING. Let's continue our in-depth, analytical look at The U.


COACHING
The definition of a COACH is a person who is responsible for managing and training a person or a team. COACHING is a process that aims to improve performance and focuses on the 'here and now' rather than on the distant past or future. Coaching is unlocking a person's potential to maximize their own performance.

How GOOD are college football coaches? Are they winning just because they have a more talented roster? Do they even win the games if they have the more talented roster? These are the hard questions that we hope to find a resolution to or at the very least, close the gap. There are some new analytic terms I want to introduce as we move forward.


So how do we find out the TRUE VALUE for a Head Coach. Is it winning the games you are supposed to? Is it winning the games where you have the exact talent as your opponent? Is it winning games where you are the underdog? These 3 questions are excellent ones. Individually, they each have advantages & flaws for an overall evaluation.

Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) gives you probably the best of the 3 individually. It takes into account how good you are at coaching against an opponent with LESSER talent than your own roster. Where it doesn't help you is if you have a roster with 0.00 Blue Chip Average (BCAvg.). There are 44 out of the 130 Programs that have a 0.00 BCAvg. entering the 2019 season. So none of the 44 teams has any advantage.

Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) is the good for analyzing how good your coach is in winning against teams of EQUAL value. It is a great indicator for how well a head coach out coaches the opposing coach and his respected program. The draw back here is that only 6 programs within the Top 25 BCAvg's have the same average. (13.00) Florida St. / Penn St., (12.00) Florida / Notre Dame, (7.25) Ole Miss / UCLA. The NWP is more a main component for programs outside the Top 25 BCAvg & lower (such as the 44 Programs with a 0.00 BCAvg.).

Unexpected Win Percentage (UWP) is a good tool for measuring how well a head coach can WIN the underdog game. How well a coach can out-scheme or outplay a GREATER opponent. This is useful for most teams outside the Top 25 BCAvg., teams in the bottom of their respective Power 5 Conference. But it's especially useful for smaller Conferences as a whole such as Conference USA, the MAC, American Athletic Conference, Mountain West, Sun Belt & some Independent schools. The flaw here is most teams in the Top 10 BCAvg. don't play in too many UWP games. Nick Saban hasn't coached a UWP game in almost a decade.

These 3 have their Pros & Cons. But there must be a way to find a fair evaluation between coaches who coach small schools and bigger programs. In Baseball, when we try to value Hitters we combine Walks & Hits to estimate their On Base Percentage (OBP). Likewise we will combine the 2 most helpful tools to help us find a Head Coach's TRUE VALUE. By combining both Expected Winning Percentage (EWP) & Neutral Winning Percentage (NWP) we arrive at Expected/Neutral Win Percentage) ENWP.

Expected/Neutral Win Percentage (ENWP) gives us the best opportunity to evaluate EVERY coach of EVERY program, equally. So we talked about BCAvg on Part 1 of this Study. In BCAvg we average the last 4 Recruiting Classes including the approaching season. For our ENWP we took the average of the previous 4 seasons coached, so from (2015-2018). Coaching is a business & just like the NFL it is a "What have YOU done for ME lately league." Just because you won a National Championship 10 years ago doesn't necessarily mean you are still a great coach. Some coaches won't be eligible for this if they they are new to being a Head Coach, such as Manny Diaz. Others may not be on the list because they haven't coached a game in this time period, such as North Carolina's Mack Brown. Below are the TOP 25 ENWP Head Coaches entering the 2019 College Football Season. (WARNING: Some Names WILL surprise you. Fair Warning.)


COACH​
(2019) SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
Dabo SwinneyClemson95.6% (43-2)95.6% (43-2)
0.0% (0-0)​
85.7% (12-2)
Lincoln RileyOklahoma95.5% (21-1)95.2% (20-1)100.0% (1-0)50.0% (3-3)
Jeff TedfordFresno St.94.1% (16-1)93.8% (15-1)100.0% (1-0)54.5% (6-5)
Jim McElwainCentral Michigan94.1% (16-1)94.1% (16-1)0.0% (0-0)35.3% (6-11)
Nick SabanAlabama93.2% (55-4)93.2% (55-4)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
Jeff BrohmPurdue87.0% (20-3)50.0% (1-1)90.5% (19-2)50.0% (15-15)
Scott SatterfieldLouisville87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-0)87.0% (40-6)0.0% (0-5)
Dave ClawsonWake Forest86.7% (13-2)0.0% (0-0)86.7% (13-2)40.0% (12-18)
Kirk FerentzIowa84.0% (21-4)81.0% (17-4)100.0% (4-0)57.1% (16-12)
Paul ChrystWisconsin83.8% (31-6)83.8% (31-6)0.0% (0-0)64.7% (11-6)
Mike GundyOklahoma St.82.9% (29-6)87.5% (28-4)33.3% (1-2)47.1% (8-9)
Chris PetersenWashington82.9% (34-7)82.5% (33-7)100.0% (1-0)38.5% (5-8)
Kyle WhittinghamUtah81.8% (18-4)81.8% (18-4)0.0% (0-0)59.4% (19-13)
James FranklinPenn St.81.8% (36-8)83.7% (36-7)0.0% (0-1)22.2% (2-7)
Kirby SmartGeorgia81.6% (31-7)81.6% (31-7)0.0% (0-0)25.0% (1-3)
Jim HarbaughMichigan80.9% (38-9)82.6% (38-8)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-5)
Dan MullenFlorida80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.9% (12-16)
Dave DoerenNorth Carolina St.80.8% (21-5)80.8% (21-5)0.0% (0-0)42.3% (11-15)
Bryan HarsinBoise St.80.0% (36-9)79.1% (34-9)100.0% (2-0)60.0% (6-4)
Pat FitzgeraldNorthwestern80.0% (20-5)78.3% (18-5)100.0% (0-0)57.1% (16-12)
P.J. FleckMinnesota79.4% (27-7)87.5% (7-1)76.9% (20-6)33.3% (6-12)
Steve AddazioBoston College78.9% (15-4)100.0% (4-0)73.3% (11-4)29.0% (9-22)
Dino BabersSyracuse78.3% (18-5)64.3% (9-5)100.0% (9-0)37.0% (10-17)
Ed OrgeronLSU78.3% (18-5)77.3% (17-5)100.0% (1-0)33.3% (1-2)
Mike LeachWashington St.77.8% (14-4)91.7% (11-1)50.0% (3-3)67.6% (23-11)

"Heavy is the Head that wears the Crown." 3 of the Top 5 ENWP Coaches were in the College Football Playoff this past season: Dabo Swinney (95.6), Lincoln Riley (95.5) & Nick Saban (93.2). These three coaches are considered the best in the business up to this point. Also adding to the point, if Urban Meyer would have returned to Ohio St., his ENWP would have been 88.2% (6th Best). Of the Analytical Categories, this is the one that has all three (Swinney, Riley Saban) together in the Top 5 of any category. This may be the best measurement we currently have to measure the TRUE VALUE of a Head Coach. Below are the Top 25 BCAvg Rosters & their respected Head Coaches. Only 9 of the Programs have a Top 25 ENWP Head Coach. The 9 Coaches are highlighted ORANGE.

SCHOOL​
BCAvg​
CONFERENCE​
COACH​
ENWP​
1. Alabama20.75SEC - WESTNick Saban93.2% (55-4)
2. Georgia18.75SEC - EASTKirby Smart81.6% (31-7)
3. Ohio St.18.50BIG 10 - EASTRyan DayN/A
4. Texas15.25BIG 12Tom Herman71.1% (32-13)
5. LSU14.75SEC - WESTEd Orgeron78.3% (18-5)
6. Michigan14.50BIG 10 - EASTJim Harbaugh80.9% (38-9)
7. Oklahoma14.25BIG 12Lincoln Riley95.5% (21-1)
8. USC13.50PAC 12 - SOUTHClay Helton70.3% (26-11)
9. Auburn13.25SEC - WESTGus Malzahn67.4% (29-14)
10. Florida St.13.00ACC - ATLANTICWillie Taggart67.5% (27-13)
10. Penn St.13.00BIG 10 - EASTJames Franklin81.8% (36-8)
12. Florida12.50SEC - EASTDan Mullen80.8% (21-5)
12. Notre Dame12.50INDEPENDENTBrian Kelly71.1% (32-13)
14. Clemson12.00ACC - ATLANTICDabo Swinney95.6% (43-2)
15. MIAMI11.50ACC - COASTALMANNY DIAZN/A
16. Texas A&M10.75SEC - WESTJimbo Fisher72.7% (32-12)
17. Washington10.25PAC 12 - NORTHChris Petersen82.9% (34-7)
18. Tennessee9.00SEC - EASTJeremy Pruitt44.4% (4-5)
19. Oregon8.75PAC 12 - NORTHMario Cristobal63.6% (7-4)
20. Stanford8.00PAC 12 - NORTHDavid Shaw76.3% (29-9)
21. Ole Miss7.25SEC - WESTMatt Luke68.8% (11-5)
21. UCLA7.25PAC 12 - SOUTHChip Kelly18.2% (2-9)
23. South Carolina6.25SEC - EASTWill Muschamp77.3% (17-5)
24. Nebraska6.00BIG 10 - WESTScott Frost69.0% (20-9)
25. Arkansas5.75SEC - WESTChad Morris51.7% (15-14)

So how good have the Canes' last 4 head coaches done. As a reminder we used 24/7 Sports as our reference. All the data goes as far back as the 2005 Season because we have the averages of the 2005, 2004, 2003 & 2002 respectively. The data before that time period varies and is inconclusive, so we cannot use it. So for example, we can only use data for Larry Coker for his 2005 & 2006 seasons. His 2001-2004 are inconclusive due to the Blue Chip data presented for those years.


So here are the past Canes Head Coaches....
To be a Top 25 Head Coach, typically your ENWP has to be at least 76.0% - 79.2% depending on the year. NONE of the 3 Reached this plateau CONSISTENTLY during their head coaching tenure. The Canes have had a Top 5 Roster every one of these years. Even the Al Golden "Cloud over the Program" Years, WE STILL HAD TOP 25 TALENT. What makes it worse is Randy Shannon & Larry Coker had TOP 10 BCAvg. Rosters EVERY YEAR during their tenure! PREACHING TO THE CHOIR, RIGHT? Enough with the past, let's move forward.



2019 MIAMI HURRICANES PREVIEW

Last year's Cane's squad had an 9.75 BCAvg which was 16th Nationally. Miami enters the 2019 season with a 11.50 BCAvg. which ranks them 15th Nationally. To put it in perspective, this is the Best Miami BCAvg. in a decade. Miami is expected to WIN every game except for FLORIDA ST. & FLORIDA via BCAvg. & EWP. Below is Miami's schedule along with their opponents BCAvg, Head Coach & chances of Victory or Upset.
Miami is a BCAvg Underdog in 2 games, FLORIDA & FLORIDA ST. Now at this point in time there may be people ready to strangle me for us being UNDERDOGS to our 2 Biggest Rivals! RELAX. Remember in the beginning of this article I said you need 3 THINGS TO BE SUCCESSFUL: TALENT, COACHING & DEVELOPMENT. Florida St. has had the best BCAvg in the ACC since 2011 & that's including Clemson. TALENT is just ONE component. You still need the other TWO. So let's take a closer look at Dan Mullen (Florida) & Willie Taggart (Florida St.)


DAN MULLEN (FLORIDA)

Dan Mullen is a Top 20 ENWP Coach. Tied for 17th along with North Carolina St.'s Dave Doeren to be precise. I know that's hard to fathom considering his 10-33 record against Top 25 Opponents in his career. Mullen is also 6-15 against Top 10 Teams in his career. These stats would scream mediocrity to the naked eye. But his 80.8 ENWP means he wins the majority of games he has the same or better roster than his opponent. In this case, that is us, Miami. From a BCAvg. standpoint, this will be the most talented roster Dan Mullen has ever coached. Last year's Gator squad held a 9.50 BCAvg. which was good enough for 18th on the list. This year they jump up to 12.50 which rates them 12th.

How do the Canes win this game? First and foremost it starts with the defense. THANK YOU CAPTAIN OBVIOUS, RIGHT? The goal for the defense should be 21, to not give up more than 21 points to the Gators. Dan Mullen is 3-13 (18.8% WIN PROBABILITY) when his offense scores 21 points or less. The other part of the equation has to be Dan Enos & the Offense. Dan Enos was the Offensive Coordinator for Arkansas from 2015-2017. His Offense faced Dan Mullen's former team (Mississippi St.) 3 times. Manny Diaz happened to be Mullen's Defensive Coordinator for the 2015 season. Below are the Stats from those 3 encounters.

THE DAN ENOS EFFECT...vs DAN MULLEN
View attachment 93539
Dan Enos has had success against Mullen coached teams, including a 50 & 58 point performance in their first 2 meetings. Enos coached at Alabama as the Quarterback Coach. But as an Offensive Coordinator, this will be the most talented roster he has ever had as a play caller. As an OC at Arkansas, his BCAvg was as follows (2015) 4.75 (2016) 5.25 (2017) 5.25.



WILLIE TAGGART (FLORIDA ST.)
Willie Taggart is coaching the 10th Best BCAvg. Roster in the Nation. That's where the positives end with Willie Taggart. He coached well enough to be a Top 25 coach in 2015 & 2016 at South Florida. His success hasn't translated to the Power 5 as he has finished below his Roster's BCAvg Ranking in 2017 (Oregon) & a disastrous 2018 (Florida St.) campaign. As Miami's BCAvg climbed from 9.75 to 11.25, Florida St.'s BCAvg dropped from 14.25 to 13.00 for the upcoming 2019 season. Below is the EWP breakdown for Willie Taggart.



COACH​
SCHOOL​
ENWP (W/L)​
EWP (W/L)​
NWP (W/L)​
UWP (W/L)​
2015South Florida77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-0)77.8% (7-2)25.0% (1-3)
2016South Florida88.9 (8-1)0.0% (0-0)88.9 (8-1)66.7% (2-1)
2017Oregon70.0% (7-3)77.8% (7-2)0.0% (0-1)0.0% (0-2)
2018Florida St.41.7% (5-7)41.7% (5-7)0.0% (0-0)0.0% (0-0)
TOTAL67.5% (27-13)57.1% (12-9)78.9% (15-4)33.3% (3-6)


For Florida St. fans, it must an uneasy feeling for the start of the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee. The most talented BCAvg roster comes into his hands & he significantly underachieves. Taggart has entered the realm of Al Golden & Randy Shannon. As Canes fans, we are loving it! Manny Diaz has to be loving his chances going into this matchup.



Overall, it's been the same expectations FOREVER. WIN the Coastal at MINIMUM. The CANES have the TALENT to make some noise, but can Manny Diaz lead them to that next step. What happens this season, regardless of Roster Talent, will ultimately rest on his shoulders. This concludes the SECOND PART of this series. We looked into ROSTER TALENT with BCAvg in PART 1. Just now we COMPLETED PART 2 with COACHING & using ENWP. For PART 3: DEVELOPMENT there are a lot of avenues to put into an equation:
  • TOTAL PLAYERS Drafted
  • RECRUITED STARS AVG Drafted
  • RECRUITED AVERAGE
  • AVERAGE DRAFT Class
  • PLAYERS Named to the ALL-AMERICAN / ALL-CONFERENCE Teams
  • Statistical GROWTH from players FRESHMAN through GRADUATION among several other FACTORS

Congrats to Jarren Williams on winning the QB1 job. It was well deserved. Hopefully anyone choosing to read this article got something out of it. Maybe a better idea or a different angle of how to judge Head Coaches & their performances for the 2019 season & moving forward.

Don’t you have anything more important to do in your life than spending time on this
IT'S GREAT TO BE A MIAMI HURRICANE!



 
Advertisement
Great stuff again. A lot of these metrics are near impossible to quantify.
 
Advertisement
Advertisement
Get a life, please.

Edgy posters who constantly lurk and read everything just like the rest of us, who then try to posture as being better than the guys making the actual content are my favorite.

We get it, you're marginally less a loser than the rest of us also spending our free time obsessing over a bunch of teens and early 20 somethings.
 
I DO appreciate all the effort - that's a bit of work!

It gives some of us a bit of perspective - statistically we'd never figure out for ourselves - like the significance of keeping UF to 21 or under.

Others may have great suggestions - other numbers to look at, or their perspective - but that's all BS.

If their approach was so good - they'd have done the work - and they didn't.

Again, thanks!
 
Advertisement
Back
Top