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A change in strategy

RightSaidFred said:
What am I missing? We have the #10 ranked class, that’s not good enough
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are you new GIF
 
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AtlAtty said:
What I like about how we recruit is that we seem to constantly review what is working, not only for us, but on a larger, statistical model.

For example, we believe (and I think the stats back this up) that the highest hit rate on high school athletes is on the offensive and defensive lines, so we put a lot of NIL into those positions. Whereas the lowest hit rate is QB (see one of Dmoney’s recent podcasts where he reviews how the top rated QB’s from the 2022 and 2023 classes have fared in college).

We seem to believe that the best indicator for college success is production in the senior season of high school. I guarantee you that this decision is borne out of a statistical analysis and not just “I think senior season is the most important”. Now this will play itself out over the next few years, and again, I guarantee that Mario has people monitoring these recruiting decisions and then providing the analysis.

We are effectively operating like a large corporation in terms of recruiting and talent evaluation, which in fact we are. This will likely be painful for us as fans at times because it means we may not pursue Derek Cooper or Calvin Russell the same way another college does because they don’t fit into our model of highest likelihood of success. But this is like Moneyball. Always look for the slight statistical edge, and believe that over a long enough time period, it will result in success, even if there are short term “losses” along the way.

Now this is the recruiting board and everything I have written is only about recruiting. Please do not give him some half-a*s reply like ‘why doesn’t Mario do that for the running game’. Stay in your lane CIS.
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Evals matter. And you have to have some faith in your organization. This years class has been very Butch Davis-esque
 
RightSaidFred said:
What am I missing? We have the #10 ranked class, that’s not good enough
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You aren't really missing anything. The point is that they switched strategies to prioritize senior film over ranking. The latest rankings adjustment shows that their strategy is paying off. It looked like they were throwing offers at low four stars/high three stars but when the film was re-evaluated by the recruiting services, many of our recruits got sizeable bumps.
 
chrisRMNU said:
You aren't really missing anything. The point is that they switched strategies to prioritize senior film over ranking. The latest rankings adjustment shows that their strategy is paying off. It looked like they were throwing offers at low four stars/high three stars but when the film was re-evaluated by the recruiting services, many of our recruits got sizeable bumps.
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You're not wrong. But it's a bit of circular reference as well. As Mario keeps sending kids to the league, (esp those from HS), we will continue to get ratings bumps as well, haha.

I died laughing a few years ago when ivins said a kid got bumped because saban evaluated him and therefore the likelihood of him panning out was higher
 
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chrisRMNU said:
You aren't really missing anything. The point is that they switched strategies to prioritize senior film over ranking. The latest rankings adjustment shows that their strategy is paying off. It looked like they were throwing offers at low four stars/high three stars but when the film was re-evaluated by the recruiting services, many of our recruits got sizeable bumps.
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Not rankings, but early evaluations
they don't care about rankings
 
RightSaidFred said:
What am I missing? We have the #10 ranked class, that’s not good enough
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Class rankings are so deceiving. Miami was 4th ranked composite class in 2024 and had 9 players that were ranked a 92 or better by 247. Miami currently has 12 players ranked 92 or better in the 2026 class but are 10 composite rank.

Now let us look at those top 9 guys from 2024. Zaquan is gone. The 3 WR class that boosted that ranking of Jo Jo, Carr and Chance have been hurt and disappointing so far. Lofton for all the hype has been disappointing. Pickett still fighting for playing time in a loaded position. So really only 3 playing to level expected (Scott, Blount and Lightfoot).

Now for the 12 players listed as a 92 or better for 2026. They are Cantwell, Wingo, Parris, Stancil, Dunnigan, Charles, Portis, Mueller, Waters, Congdon, Campbell and Ervin. Could you see a world in which these top 12 out produce those top 9? I think the answer is absolutely so this class may be ranked 10 but can argue it is better than that so called 4th ranked class. At least at the top. Classes obviously go to different heights when the under rated guys also hit.
 
bigweez said:
Class rankings are so deceiving. Miami was 4th ranked composite class in 2024 and had 9 players that were ranked a 92 or better by 247. Miami currently has 12 players ranked 92 or better in the 2026 class but are 10 composite rank.

Now let us look at those top 9 guys from 2024. Zaquan is gone. The 3 WR class that boosted that ranking of Jo Jo, Carr and Chance have been hurt and disappointing so far. Lofton for all the hype has been disappointing. Pickett still fighting for playing time in a loaded position. So really only 3 playing to level expected (Scott, Blount and Lightfoot).

Now for the 12 players listed as a 92 or better for 2026. They are Cantwell, Wingo, Parris, Stancil, Dunnigan, Charles, Portis, Mueller, Waters, Congdon, Campbell and Ervin. Could you see a world in which these top 12 out produce those top 9? I think the answer is absolutely so this class may be ranked 10 but can argue it is better than that so called 4th ranked class. At least at the top. Classes obviously go to different heights when the under rated guys also hit.
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We don't need to look any further than the 25 class and its class ranking.

Many around here were upset that Mario was failing at recruiting because the class was rated 13th in the nation, but class ranking be dam.ned. The 25 class has easily outplayed the 24 class.
 
Silentobserver said:
We don't need to look any further than the 25 class and its class ranking.

Many around here were upset that Mario was failing at recruiting because the class was rated 13th in the nation, but class ranking be dam.ned. The 25 class has easily outplayed the 24 class.
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I know I don’t need to tell you this but these rankings are made by idiots sitting at a computer who have no real idea what they are looking at. Class rankings are for the fans to puff their chest.

I’d much rather have good football players that the coaches identify that will fit our scheme on offense and defense. Seems like that’s what MC and the staff did with the 25 class and we see the results.
 
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canesbaby said:
I know I don’t need to tell you this but these rankings are made by idiots sitting at a computer who have no real idea what they are looking at. Class rankings are for the fans to puff their chest.

I’d much rather have good football players that the coaches identify that will fit our scheme on offense and defense. Seems like that’s what MC and the staff did with the 25 class and we see the results.
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I completely agree with you. I do find if funny how many around here mock Gator fan for his love of class rankings while trembling in a corner that Mario hasn't put together back-to-back top 5 classes.

Butch is heralded for his eye for talent; the diamonds in the rough types. His class rankings in today's landscape would barely make the top 15, but as you said none of that shi.t matters.

Find players who fit what you want to do and who have elite traits, and you'll be in good shape as a program. Obviously, the athletic and physical freaks are a plus.
 
bigweez said:
Class rankings are so deceiving. Miami was 4th ranked composite class in 2024 and had 9 players that were ranked a 92 or better by 247. Miami currently has 12 players ranked 92 or better in the 2026 class but are 10 composite rank.

Now let us look at those top 9 guys from 2024. Zaquan is gone. The 3 WR class that boosted that ranking of Jo Jo, Carr and Chance have been hurt and disappointing so far. Lofton for all the hype has been disappointing. Pickett still fighting for playing time in a loaded position. So really only 3 playing to level expected (Scott, Blount and Lightfoot).

Now for the 12 players listed as a 92 or better for 2026. They are Cantwell, Wingo, Parris, Stancil, Dunnigan, Charles, Portis, Mueller, Waters, Congdon, Campbell and Ervin. Could you see a world in which these top 12 out produce those top 9? I think the answer is absolutely so this class may be ranked 10 but can argue it is better than that so called 4th ranked class. At least at the top. Classes obviously go to different heights when the under rated guys also hit.
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92 or better seems like a random cherry-picked cutoff point to make your case.

Fine, it is what it is. Hopefully the class is as good as you say.
 
RightSaidFred said:
92 or better seems like a random cherry-picked cutoff point to make your case.

Fine, it is what it is. Hopefully the class is as good as you say.
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Never said class was good. I simply pointing out that a so called class that was 4th in 2024 wasn't any better then the so called 10th class this year. Heck the 2025 class was ranked 13th and had more production then the 2024 class. 2026Class could be terrible or could be good. Just showing that you saying a 10th ranked class isn't good enough is meaningless because rankings are never accurate.
 
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