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A change in strategy

What I like about how we recruit is that we seem to constantly review what is working, not only for us, but on a larger, statistical model.

For example, we believe (and I think the stats back this up) that the highest hit rate on high school athletes is on the offensive and defensive lines, so we put a lot of NIL into those positions. Whereas the lowest hit rate is QB (see one of Dmoney’s recent podcasts where he reviews how the top rated QB’s from the 2022 and 2023 classes have fared in college).

We seem to believe that the best indicator for college success is production in the senior season of high school. I guarantee you that this decision is borne out of a statistical analysis and not just “I think senior season is the most important”. Now this will play itself out over the next few years, and again, I guarantee that Mario has people monitoring these recruiting decisions and then providing the analysis.

We are effectively operating like a large corporation in terms of recruiting and talent evaluation, which in fact we are. This will likely be painful for us as fans at times because it means we may not pursue Derek Cooper or Calvin Russell the same way another college does because they don’t fit into our model of highest likelihood of success. But this is like Moneyball. Always look for the slight statistical edge, and believe that over a long enough time period, it will result in success, even if there are short term “losses” along the way.

Now this is the recruiting board and everything I have written is only about recruiting. Please do not give him some half-a*s reply like ‘why doesn’t Mario do that for the running game’. Stay in your lane CIS.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I prefer being ahead of curves (maybe we are? I don't know how much other programs are thinking/acting this way), but either way, it's good to see we are adapting with time. This is the opposite of stubborn, so at least that's somewhat refreshing.
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I actually prefer being behind the curve(s)
dhvvb5y-5c7af0b1-d86f-4859-822d-d67333576ca9.gif


Go Canes
 
Mario's greatest advantage in recruiting is job security. When you have to focus your time on holding a class together you can't focus your energy on adding to it.

When Mario misses on the big fish he doesn't take the easy layup borderline kid in his backyard. He finds the elite measurables, good traits, high upside kid with film to back it up and even if he's committed to another school he makes them a priority. That and the brand having relevance again makes those kids realistic flip targets. If a coach is fired and Mario wants a kid from that class. It's a lay up.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I prefer being ahead of curves (maybe we are? I don't know how much other programs are thinking/acting this way),
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As far as I can tell, there are only two schools so heavily reliant on flips this late in the cycle (Miami and O$U)

lindend

2026 Post in thread 'Flip Watch 3.0 No Class is Safe from Mario (2026 Version)'


hcanes100

2026 Post in thread 'Flip Watch 3.0 No Class is Safe from Mario (2026 Version)'

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lindend

2026 Post in thread 'Flip Watch 3.0 No Class is Safe from Mario (2026 Version)'

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lindend

Post in thread 'Head to Head with the Big Boys: O$U Edition'

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lindend said:
At this point, its safe to say that there's no school more reliant on flipping recruits than Miami. And I distinctly remember several people saying that due to the NIL changes, the flips this season would be minimal.
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I asked this earlier this week prior to @DMoney creating this thread confirming a shift in strategy over the last two years. 👆🏾

The only flaw/weakness I can see with this approach are:

  1. The recruit that commits to a school early and stays loyal to the first school that recruited them even as their recruitment blows up (ala Jacory “C2” Barney).
  2. The SFL Diva types that penalize/eliminate you if you're not one of the initial offers.
In general, this philosophy seems to be much more effective outside of SFL.
 
lindend said:
I asked this earlier this week prior to @DMoney creating this thread confirming a shift in strategy over the last two years. 👆🏾

The only flaw/weakness I can see with this approach are:

  1. The recruit that commits to a school early and stays loyal to the first school that recruited them even as their recruitment blows up (ala Jacory “C2” Barney).
  2. The SFL Diva types that penalize/eliminate you if you're not one of the initial offers.
In general, this philosophy seems to be much more effective outside of SFL.
Click to expand...
I’m kinda goood on the south Florida diva types anyways. The ones worth getting ain’t divas (Toney/Bain). But also the proof is in the pudding, we continue to have 10 win seasons, offense/defense that is statistically top 25 every year, then there will be less convincing and more sorting through what to keep/kick
 
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lindend said:
I asked this earlier this week prior to @DMoney creating this thread confirming a shift in strategy over the last two years. 👆🏾

The only flaw/weakness I can see with this approach are:

  1. The recruit that commits to a school early and stays loyal to the first school that recruited them even as their recruitment blows up (ala Jacory “C2” Barney).
  2. The SFL Diva types that penalize/eliminate you if you're not one of the initial offers.
In general, this philosophy seems to be much more effective outside of SFL.
Click to expand...
The loyal recruits are few and far between anymore.
Building trust is a fine line
Kids want to get to play, want to develop and ultimately want to get paid.
 
Jassid82 said:
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mario had it leaked that Byrce Fitzgerald wasn’t physical and hated to tackle. Lol. This kids film screamed elite athlete. Best athlete in Florida. No shock that translated easily to college.
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The film was the leak.

He did everything but want to hit that is/was clear.

But his film of two szn showed what he did with the ball in his hands and his ball skills.

The same is kind of being said about the cb recrhit Wyman in this class on physicality...on offense he **** near is scoring 2 tds a game though or atleast 1
 
HTXCane said:
Mac Browns downfall at UT was locking up his classes early based on Jr production and coasting the rest of the cycle.
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I remember this. Texas would literally lock up almost the entire class for 2010 in April 2009. All in one weekend. There would be almost no fluctuation in either direction.
 
Anyone know who is a casualty because of this method? Those who will ‘flip’ on NSD because Miami told them to find another home? I’ve seen Tyran Evans mentioned.
 
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Also, we have the #7 class int country strictly based off of 247 rankings. I think they’ll bump the 3 stars later, because Fredric that DT is at least an 88. That 85 is too low
 
AtlAtty said:
What I like about how we recruit is that we seem to constantly review what is working, not only for us, but on a larger, statistical model.

For example, we believe (and I think the stats back this up) that the highest hit rate on high school athletes is on the offensive and defensive lines, so we put a lot of NIL into those positions. Whereas the lowest hit rate is QB (see one of Dmoney’s recent podcasts where he reviews how the top rated QB’s from the 2022 and 2023 classes have fared in college).

We seem to believe that the best indicator for college success is production in the senior season of high school. I guarantee you that this decision is borne out of a statistical analysis and not just “I think senior season is the most important”. Now this will play itself out over the next few years, and again, I guarantee that Mario has people monitoring these recruiting decisions and then providing the analysis.

We are effectively operating like a large corporation in terms of recruiting and talent evaluation, which in fact we are. This will likely be painful for us as fans at times because it means we may not pursue Derek Cooper or Calvin Russell the same way another college does because they don’t fit into our model of highest likelihood of success. But this is like Moneyball. Always look for the slight statistical edge, and believe that over a long enough time period, it will result in success, even if there are short term “losses” along the way.

Now this is the recruiting board and everything I have written is only about recruiting. Please do not give him some half-a*s reply like ‘why doesn’t Mario do that for the running game’. Stay in your lane CIS.
Click to expand...
I think this same philosophy has thankfully filtered into Major League Baseball. It seems that there is now a more significant interest in experienced college players versus high school bonus babies. Or I may be wrong. The increased dollars makes for people want to take fewer risky bets.
 
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