grover
Senior
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2012
- Messages
- 18,830
I think GMs get scared off by Messi's age and he slips to the 2nd, which will be stupid, but then most of them are.
Per AI, approximately 60% of first rounders sign a second contract with any team. Only half sign that second contract with the team that drafted them. So if only 30% of first rounders are re-signing with their original team, should it really affect whom the GM drafts in the first round? Especially because that GM may not even be around by that point?
All else equal, I suppose I'd go with the more likely 10 year guy. But since that seems mostly uncontrollable, and things are never equal, I'd always take the better fit NOW. Time value of money/impact.