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3/15/24 Game 18: UNC 10-7 W

Kids did what they needed to do tonight. The real test tomorrow. By far their best pitcher. Hope they can get it done. Would be really nice to not be in a dogfight for the series on Sunday.
 
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Midweek games we can’t hit 85 mph kids who will be going pro in something other than baseball.

Get on the weekends and we crush ranked teams.

That tells me it’s focus and leadership not impressing the impact of those games enough.

Midweek games might keep this team out of the tournament.
 
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WanderFranco said:
They weren't going to transform the program with new coaches, new data, and a whole new roster in one off-season. Good lord. Give it a rest. Even the most vocal critics are sick of you whining in every thread.
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Who is this guy??
 
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BP Joe said:
Yep. We looked like the ranked team.
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If they weren't dropping midweek games, they would be ranked. The midweek losses are an RPI killer. The team has an RPI of 120. That's up 18 after the UNC win. UNC has an RPI of 8.

For reference, Pitt, with a 10-5 record has an RPI of 65. Despite 0-4 in the ACC, Notre Dame has an RPI of 16 with an 11-6 record.

Miami likely a top 10-20 RPI team with more midweek wins. I hope ND can win at least 1 game against FSU and keep their RPI up. This way Miami could get a huge jump if the team wins the UNC and ND series.
 
Number1CanesFan said:
If they weren't dropping midweek games, they would be ranked. The midweek losses are an RPI killer. The team has an RPI of 120. That's up 18 after the UNC win. UNC has an RPI of 8.

For reference, Pitt, with a 10-5 record has an RPI of 65. Despite 0-4 in the ACC, Notre Dame has an RPI of 16 with an 11-6 record.

Miami likely a top 10-20 RPI team with more midweek wins. I hope ND can win at least 1 game against FSU and keep their RPI up. This way Miami could get a huge jump if the team wins the UNC and ND series.
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No, they don’t have the road games for that. The RPI is highly contingent on road wins, especially early.

You cite Notre Dame and their RPI is because they have played mostly road games.

Miami would obviously be higher if they had won all their road games, but nowhere near where you state.
 
Lance Roffers said:
No, they don’t have the road games for that. The RPI is highly contingent on road wins, especially early.

You cite Notre Dame and their RPI is because they have played mostly road games.

Miami would obviously be higher if they had won all their road games, but nowhere near where you state.
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So, have the mid-week games already sunk the RPI beyond repair? If so, it seems the calculation needs some tweaking, as this Canes team has some talent when they are focused.

Shouldn't the calculation toss one or two outliers for a sport that plays a near 60 game regular season schedule?
 
BP Joe said:
So, have the mid-week games already sunk the RPI beyond repair? If so, it seems the calculation needs some tweaking, as this Canes team has some talent when they are focused.

Shouldn't the calculation toss one or two outliers for a sport that plays a near 60 game regular season schedule?
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No, not at all. The RPI will rise as we play better teams, some of them on the road.

And I love the RPI because it rewards teams for going on the road and winning. Southern teams who sit at home for the first month and a as half and get outside all year shouldn’t get a 1-to-1 credit for a win in my mind. Winning on the road is much harder and is properly rated in my mind.

Miami will be fine if they win a bunch of games this season. I was responding to the post that their RPI would be 10-20 if they won all their mid-week games thus far.
 
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BP Joe said:
So, have the mid-week games already sunk the RPI beyond repair? If so, it seems the calculation needs some tweaking, as this Canes team has some talent when they are focused.

Shouldn't the calculation toss one or two outliers for a sport that plays a near 60 game regular season schedule?
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No, it hasn’t. The RPI is famous for overrating ACC teams, so adding a new conference opponent every weekend will help by itself.
 
Lance Roffers said:
No, they don’t have the road games for that. The RPI is highly contingent on road wins, especially early.

You cite Notre Dame and their RPI is because they have played mostly road games.

Miami would obviously be higher if they had won all their road games, but nowhere near where you state.
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I haven't done the calculation. FSU has an RPI of 8 with 2 road wins over UF and U of Jacksonville. Granted they are undefeated, but only 2 road wins. One of which a very highly rated UF. They have 2 quality wins in UF and ND. UF's only road wins are at Miami and UF has some bad losses. They have an RPI of 32. Needless to say, if UM had won its midweek games they would have an RPI 1/4 to 1/2 of what is is now.
 
Number1CanesFan said:
I haven't done the calculation. FSU has an RPI of 8 with 2 road wins over UF and U of Jacksonville. Granted they are undefeated, but only 2 road wins. One of which a very highly rated UF. They have 2 quality wins in UF and ND. UF's only road wins are at Miami and UF has some bad losses. They have an RPI of 32. Needless to say, if UM had won its midweek games they would have an RPI 1/4 to 1/2 of what is is now.
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You can put our RPI issues currently into two buckets: record and scheduling. Our home/road adjusted record is 7.0-8.5 (FSU is 13.3-0). Our non conference scheduling was uncharacteristically abysmal as evidenced by our NC SOS in the 200s. The LIU loss will always be a drag on our RPI, and we were lucky the fourth game against NJIT was rained out. It should improve a bit with FAU and BYU (6 games total) a little above .500 on adjusted record, but FIU and Bethune (5 games) are below .500 on adjusted record.

If I “fix” our record for the midweek games and use SOS as a proxy for the opponents record and opponents opponents portions of the formula, we probably come out somewhere between Oklahoma State at 62 and Oregon at 70.
 
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scane said:
You can put our RPI issues currently into two buckets: record and scheduling. Our home/road adjusted record is 7.0-8.5 (FSU is 13.3-0). Our non conference scheduling was uncharacteristically abysmal as evidenced by our NC SOS in the 200s. The LIU loss will always be a drag on our RPI, and we were lucky the fourth game against NJIT was rained out. It should improve a bit with FAU and BYU (6 games total) a little above .500 on adjusted record, but FIU and Bethune (5 games) are below .500 on adjusted record.

If I “fix” our record for the midweek games and use SOS as a proxy for the opponents record and opponents opponents portions of the formula, we probably come out somewhere between Oklahoma State at 62 and Oregon at 70.
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I ran it as precisely as I could and came out with an RPI of .5663 if we converted our three midweek losses to wins, and that would put us at #60, so we're both right there in our estimations.
 
scane said:
You can put our RPI issues currently into two buckets: record and scheduling. Our home/road adjusted record is 7.0-8.5 (FSU is 13.3-0). Our non conference scheduling was uncharacteristically abysmal as evidenced by our NC SOS in the 200s. The LIU loss will always be a drag on our RPI, and we were lucky the fourth game against NJIT was rained out. It should improve a bit with FAU and BYU (6 games total) a little above .500 on adjusted record, but FIU and Bethune (5 games) are below .500 on adjusted record.

If I “fix” our record for the midweek games and use SOS as a proxy for the opponents record and opponents opponents portions of the formula, we probably come out somewhere between Oklahoma State at 62 and Oregon at 70.
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Nice work. I just assumed we'd be much better with more quality wins without the bad losses.
 
Number1CanesFan said:
Nice work. I just assumed we'd be much better with more quality wins without the bad losses.
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Yeah, I built an RPI calculator and like to use “predicted” for opponents so I get their RPI/SOS in the ballpark of what’ll be with their conferences weighed in.

If you’re gonna play this bad of a schedule, you’ve gotta win a lot of games to have a really high RPI before conference.
 
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