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-18.5 vs clemson

Short report I just read echoes what I thought.

Line opened -18.5, public is all over Miami, and the sharps hammered Clemson.

Line has dropped from -18.5 to -16.5 despite 74% of the bets at Draftkings being on Miami, and 75% of the bets at Circa being on Miami.

Problem is, at DK, only 40% of the money is on Miami (60% on Clemson). At Circa, 42% of the money is on Miami (58% on Clemson).

So what's that tell you? The squares betting from their toilet on the app are putting $15 on Miami, but the sharps at the window are throwing thousands on Clemson.

Very, very similar set-up to Wake. Exactly, actually. Just a few points difference. That one opened low 20's, got bet up a little, then got hammered down by sharps and I think closed at -19.5 And we didn't cover.

I expect the same thing will happen here. It already has, to some extent. It moved through 17, which is a key number. I wouldn't be shocked if this one closed closer to -14 by kickoff. Especially if the weather gets worse.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Special teams, maybe. Have our coverage units stunk? I know we haven't played anyone as dynamic as Wesco, but we've had 2 punts returned in 3 FBS games, for a total of 14 yards. We've had 3 kickoffs returned for an 18 yard average. I'm not sure I'm losing sleep over that one, although our special teams in general, are, well, special, so I get it.
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I think in regards to special teams, Wake wr had clear field multiple times and had huge returns and almost housed it with TERRIBLE coverage and easily broken tackles.. couple penalties that were off screen wiped those plays from the stat sheet but Dabo even mentioned it in his presser.. Coverage team leaves alot to desire, had a kick blocked and we seem to get penalties as much as returns.. Our specials are not elite.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Short report I just read echoes what I thought.

Line opened -18.5, public is all over Miami, and the sharps hammered Clemson.

Line has dropped from -18.5 to -16.5 despite 74% of the bets at Draftkings being on Miami, and 75% of the bets at Circa being on Miami.

Problem is, at DK, only 40% of the money is on Miami (60% on Clemson). At Circa, 42% of the money is on Miami (58% on Clemson).

So what's that tell you? The squares betting from their toilet on the app are putting $15 on Miami, but the sharps at the window are throwing thousands on Clemson.

Very, very similar set-up to Wake. Exactly, actually. Just a few points difference. That one opened low 20's, got bet up a little, then got hammered down by sharps and I think closed at -19.5 And we didn't cover.

I expect the same thing will happen here. It already has, to some extent. It moved through 17, which is a key number. I wouldn't be shocked if this one closed closer to -14 by kickoff. Especially if the weather gets worse.
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18.5 was always nuts. I’d be beyond happy with a 2 score win especially if the weather is rough.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Short report I just read echoes what I thought.

Line opened -18.5, public is all over Miami, and the sharps hammered Clemson.

Line has dropped from -18.5 to -16.5 despite 74% of the bets at Draftkings being on Miami, and 75% of the bets at Circa being on Miami.

Problem is, at DK, only 40% of the money is on Miami (60% on Clemson). At Circa, 42% of the money is on Miami (58% on Clemson).

So what's that tell you? The squares betting from their toilet on the app are putting $15 on Miami, but the sharps at the window are throwing thousands on Clemson.

Very, very similar set-up to Wake. Exactly, actually. Just a few points difference. That one opened low 20's, got bet up a little, then got hammered down by sharps and I think closed at -19.5 And we didn't cover.

I expect the same thing will happen here. It already has, to some extent. It moved through 17, which is a key number. I wouldn't be shocked if this one closed closer to -14 by kickoff. Especially if the weather gets worse.
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Circa actually opened it -16.5 and the other books followed suit

Against Wake, the handle was very heavy Miami 80%+ yet the line came down through the week which definitely raised an eyebrow

So not yet as concerning as the Wake line but early sharp money favors Clemson
 
Watch for big plays in pass game. Clemson plays as much man 2 man as anyone and if the OL holds up it could be a feast for skill guys and / Mensah. If the OL holds up it could be fun. That said you can believe Dabo wants this win as any the last few years . To beat the new bully and media darling. He’ll throw everything including the kitchen sink at the Canes.
 
skyman said:
I think in regards to special teams, Wake wr had clear field multiple times and had huge returns and almost housed it with TERRIBLE coverage and easily broken tackles.. couple penalties that were off screen wiped those plays from the stat sheet but Dabo even mentioned it in his presser.. Coverage team leaves alot to desire, had a kick blocked and we seem to get penalties as much as returns.. Our specials are not elite.
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Specials are definitely special, for sure. I forgot about the penalty that wiped out the big return, but without going back and rewatching, maybe the penalty was the reason the big return happened in the first place? I'm not sure.
 
htownkidd said:
18.5 was always nuts. I’d be beyond happy with a 2 score win especially if the weather is rough.
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For sure. I knew we'd be a big favorite but almost dropped my phone when I saw 18.5. I thought it was an error or something at first.

Want to hear something crazy? I follow a guy who is a big bettor, his bread and butter is getting down as much as he can on these opening, "game of the year" lines that drop in the spring/early summer. Some he gets really correct and he has insane value, some not so much. He has about 4 grand down (he says he tried to get more, but that's all the books would take) back from April. The line that dropped at that time was a PICKEM!! He has Miami moneyline at basically even money for like $4k. That's insane. This game has gone from a pickem to -16.5 (and again opened this week at -18.5) since the spring. ******* nuts.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Specials are definitely special, for sure. I forgot about the penalty that wiped out the big return, but without going back and rewatching, maybe the penalty was the reason the big return happened in the first place? I'm not sure.
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They had two returns in 4th qtr where there was NO ONE close to 10-12 yards of him receiving the ball, even if there is one hold, I need multiple guys around the ball, Clemson returned a punt against Cal. If the punter is not getting enough hangtime or what, I wish we had a compentent special teams coach to get it fixed or we get more talent on coverage team. Our formation seems to have one gunner outside.. and a Dlineman

Ill cue up video punt 13:42 in 4th




and 7:33 in 4th qtr (Idk who the **** #57 is, he isnt the snapper but we need more athletic talent on field)

 
Ghandi said:
In a 4-game sample size, giving up almost 300 to LSU is going to skew your rankings for some time.
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I thought the same, but they gave up 214 to UNC also.

I didn't watch much of that game with the 17 weather delays, but UNC got 90 against TCU in Ireland and 161 against East Tennessee State.

In a 4-game sample size, giving up over 300 to LSU and another 214 to UNC is going to REALLY skew your rankings. Maybe they just suck?

2 out of their 4 games they gave up 214+ on the ground. The other 2 were Georgia Southern and Cal.

GA Southern is 123rd in the country in rushing yards per game.
Cal is 126th.
 
Having a coverage break down or a special teams blunder and giving them easy scores are my only real worries.
 
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